Economic transformation and the revaluation of human capitalHungary, 19861999 (original) (raw)
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2002
Hungary has been a front-runner in the transition to capitalism. It has also experienced exceptionally radical changes in employment and relative wages. One main feature of these changes is an enormous increase in the returns to skill. This paper argues that it is instructive to divide the process into two periods, divided by around the year 1995. The first period experienced major destruction of low-skilled jobs and large inter-sectoral reallocation, partly toward skill-intensive industries. Employment started to rebound in the second period, which has also seen a pervasive skill upgrade in all sectors. The skill premium in earnings started to grow even faster in the second stage because increasing demand for skill met a more and more inelastic supply in the short run. Long-run supply effects have been, however, strong as college enrollment rates soared. Introduction of new (foreign) capital seems to be a major factor behind increasing demand for skill. Foreign direct investment into Hungary was by far the largest among the transition countries until the late 1990's, but other Central-Eastern European countries started to catch up since. This suggests that the Hungarian experience might be helpful to predict labor market trends in other transition economies, especially those that attract significant foreign capital.
Transition of the Hungarian labour market–age, skill and regional differences
PIE Discussion Paper Series, 2005
The system change has been accompanied by large scale redundancies, massive and frequently long-term unemployment, a high level of inactivity and growing income and regional disparities in Hungary. Transition has its winners and losers both in terms of economic activity and wages. The paper describes the role of three factors: age, skill, and location shaping labour market differences during three phases of transition. In the first part of the paper, impact of transition on the Hungarian labour market has been discussed. In the second part we investigate the evolution of age and skill related differences on the labour market. In the third part regional differences will be discussed. Section four concludes and discusses policy options available to reduce labour market disparities in the following years.
An Estimation of the Productivity-Wage Gap in Hungary 1986-2005
2009
In this paper we seek to provide new empirical evidence on the relative productivities and wages of various worker groups (by gender, age, and education), based on longitudinal matched employer-employee data from Hungary covering 1986-2005. We estimate the productivity and wage gaps from firm-level production functions and wage equations, using firm-level data on productive inputs and output, wage costs, and the demographic composition of the work force obtained from the linked worker data. This methodology allows us to assess whether productive differences can account for the wage gaps between worker groups, as well as the evolution of these gaps following the transition to a free market.
We explore the relative productivities and wages of worker groups over a 20 year period following the transition in Hungary. Due to the economic transition, firms may have become more efficient in terms of setting wages, relative productivities and wages would converge over time. The linked employer-employee dataset allows us to control for selection bias at the occupation, firm, region, and industry level, and to assess long-term trends. The results do not suggest that firm wage setting became more efficient: we find a persistent gap between the relative wages and productivities of both the high-skilled and older workers. Firms who entered the market after the transition set wages more efficiently than older firms.
Long-run trends in earnings and employment in Hungary, 1972-1996
2000
Transition from socialist to capitalist economy led to enormous changes in earnings and employment. In our study a long-horizon descriptive analysis is presented about the major trends, including the last fifteen years of socialism. Education, gender, calendar time, age and vintage effects are separately analyzed. Aggregate (quasi-) panel analysis is used to assess the role of labor demand and labor supply, concluding that exogenous supply factors explained most of what happened before the transition, while the transition itself was dominated by large labor demand shocks. These demand shocks are in large part structural, as opposed to cyclical, and are highly correlated with vintage, gender and education. The main results are summarized in a list of stylized facts.
2002
The paper analyses changes in the demand for unskilled, young skilled, and older skilled workers during the post-communist transition in Hungary. Systems of cost share equations derived from the translog cost function are estimated for cross-sections of large firms observed in the period 1992-99. Following the 'transformational recession' the own-price elasticities of labour and capital were stabilized at levels observed in several developed market economies. Unskilled and skilled labour are estimated to be p-complements, and younger and older skilled workers p-substitutes. Capital and labour appear to be p-substitutes with unskilled labour having the highest elasticity of substitution. Further results hint at the existence of nonnegligible scale effects and the non-neutrality of technical change. The estimated wage elasticities give us the opportunity to evaluate consequences of some governmental policies. As minimum wage was doubled in nominal terms between 1999 and 2002 i...
After, Before and During: Returns to Education in the Hungarian Transition
Social Science Research Network, 2002
How valuable are the education and skills acquired under socialism in a market economy? This paper uses data for about 3 million Hungarian wage earners, from 1986 to 1998, to throw light on this question. We find that returns to schooling reach 10 percent early on and remain at this high level. These estimates are larger than for other transition economies, but similar to those for middle-income developing countries. With the gap in average years of schooling unremitting, we argue that the Hungarian stock of human capital is considerably less than the existing figures have led us to believe.