Resources and future supply of oil (original) (raw)
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Energy Policy, 2010
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA"s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletionrate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.
Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply
Energy, 2004
Due to the critical importance of oil to modern economic activity, and oil's non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future oil production while accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates and demand growth, and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop several alternate future scenarios for conventional oil supply, given the current range of the estimates of resource availability and of future demand, and assuming that production will continue to increase unconstrained by political or economic factors such as deliberate withholdings or prolonged global recession. Our results predict that global production of conventional oil will almost certainly begin an irreversible decline somewhere between 2004 and 2037, at 22 to 42 billion barrels per year, depending upon how much oil is available from the earth's crust and the growth rate in its use. In addition, we found that the increasing domestic use of conventional oil in oil-producing countries is very likely to eliminate over time the ability of these countries to export oil to net-consumer countries, so that the number of net-exporting countries will be reduced from 35 today to between 12 and 28 by 2030, and fewer subsequently. The geopolitical and economic implications of these trends are likely to be pronounced if reliance on cheap oil is not reduced prior to the peak. #
World’s Oil and Natural Gas Scenario
Exploration of Gas Hydrates, 2010
Recent studies suggest that the earth's crust may hypothetically hold 6,000 Billion Barrels of oil as its reserves, which also include 3,000 Billion Barrel un-recovered oil resource. However, owing to the complexities in geology associated with the reservoirs one can only indirectly get some inference about the quantum of reserves based on some probabilistic distribution. With 95% probability the world may touch ultimate recovery of 2,248 Billion Barrels. Owing to the nonencouraging scenario of oil production and likely higher cost of oil in future, may lead to search for alternative replacement to oil. The world gas reserves are estimated to the order of 10,000 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) out of which only 6,186 TCF are the proven reserves. The projected world natural gas consumption may reach to 158 TCF by 2030. This chapter provides an overview of present oil production, its consumption and future prospects.
Oil and related products continue to be prime enablers of the maintenance and growth of nearly all of the world's economies. The dramatic increase in the price of oil through mid-2008, along with the coincident (and possibly resultant) global recession, highlight our continued vulnerability to future limitations in the supply of cheap oil. The very large differences between the various estimates of the original volume of extractable conventional oil present on earth (EUR) have, at best, fostered uncertainty of the risk of future supply limitations among planners and policy makers, and at worse lulled the world into a false sense of security. In 2002 we modeled future oil production in 46 nation-units and the world by using a threephase, Hubbert-based approach that produced trajectories dependent on settings for EUR (extractable ultimate resource), demand growth, percent of oil resource extracted at decline, and maximum allowable rates of production growth. We analyzed the sensitivity of the date of onset of decline for oil production to changes in each of these input parameters. In this current effort, we compare the last eleven years of empirical oil production data to our earlier forecast scenarios to evaluate which settings of EUR and other input parameters had created the most accurate projections. When combined with proper input settings, our model consistently generated trajectories for oil production that closely approximated the empirical data at both the national and the global level. In general, the lowest EUR scenarios were the most consistent with the empirical data at the global level and for most countries, while scenarios based on the mid and high EUR estimates overestimated production rates by wide margins globally. The global production of conventional oil began to decline in 2005, and has followed a path over the last 11 years very close to our scenarios assuming low estimates of EUR (1.9 Gbbl). Production in most nations is declining, with historical profiles generally consistent with Hubbert's premises. While new conventional oil discoveries and production starts are expected in the near term, the magnitudes necessary to increase our simulated production trajectories by even 1.0% per year over the next 10 years would represent a large departure from current trends. Our now well-validated simulations are at significant variance from many recent "predictions" of extensive future availability of conventional oil.
The Implications of the Current Petroleum Reserves in Developed and Developing Nations
We have seen that reserves are those quantities of petroleum claimed to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations under defined conditions and it must satisfy four criteria which must be: discovered through one or more exploratory wells, recoverable using existing technology, commercially viable and remaining in the ground. These conditions have actually be met by some oil producing countries but how long will they rely on it to maintain a stable economic growth and development. No matter the trillion of barrels of oil stored by most countries in the world especially Nigeria will still not guarantee continuous growth in economic stability since the rate of usage is far more than that of discovery. This paper was able to bring to the notice of everyone that petroleum reserves are very advisable to all developed and developing countries in order to guarantee a partial stable economic growth and development. Experience shows that initial estimates of the size of newly discovered oil fields are usually too low. As years pass, successive estimates of the ultimate recovery of fields tend to increase. The term reserve growth refers to the typical increases in estimated ultimate recovery that occur as oil fields are developed and produced. We are currently in an energy crisis. Fossil fuels are the lifeblood of our society and for many others around the world. Our supply has a finite end, which may make some countries to make friend with those they hate. The countries in the Middle East as we can see from Fig. 3 have the highest oil reserves in the world and as such every country wants to make friend with them in case of acute shortage. Despite this, fossil fuels will run out one day and it is important to find other means of getting the energy we need to continue our society as we know it.
OPEC Review, 2001
It was expected that the identification of the new price band would play a major role in stabilising oil prices, to the benefit of both producer and consumer. The assessment of potential medium-to-long-term prospects for the oil market, contained herein, are intimately related to these important developments in international oil markets, as well as our understanding of evolving fundamentals. Part 1 of this article, developed using OPEC's World Energy Model (OWEM), describes the reference case. From the demand side, a detailed analysis of both economic growth and intensity movements is used to project the growth of oil demand that can reasonably be expected over the next two decades. A resource-based approach is used to determine feasible longer-term production, utilising the latest data made available last year by the US Geological Survey.
2007
Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040, although many of these projections cover a wide range of time, including two studies for which the range extends into the next century. The timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will influence how quickly the remaining oil is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground, how much of the remaining oil can be ultimately produced, and future oil demand. The amount of oil remaining in the ground is highly uncertain, in part because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) controls most of the estimated world oil reserves, but its estimates of reserves are not verified by independent auditors. In addition, many parts of the world have not yet been fully explored for oil. There is also great uncertainty about the amount of oil that will ultimately be produced, given the technological, cost, and environmental challenges. For example, some of the oil remaining...