Long-Period Cycles of the Sun's Activity Recorded in Direct Solar Data and Proxies (original) (raw)
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Evidence for the Gleissberg solar cycle at the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere
Advances in Space Research
Time evolution of growing season temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere was analyzed using both wavelet and Fourier approaches. A century-scale (60–140 year) cyclicity was found in the summer temperature reconstruction from the Taymir peninsula (�72� N, �105� E) and other high-latitude (60–70� N) regions during the time interval AD 1576–1970. This periodicity is significant and consists of two oscillation modes, 60–70 year and 120–140 year variations. In the summer temperatures from the Yamal peninsula (�70� N, �67� E) only a shorter-term (60–70 year) variation is present. A comparison of the secular variation in the Northern Hemisphere temperature proxies with the corresponding variations in sunspot numbers and the fluxes of cosmogenic 10Be in Greenland ice shows that a probable cause of this variability is the modulation of temperature by the century-scale solar cycle of Gleissberg. This is consistent with the results obtained previously for Northern Fennoscandia (67�–70� N, 19�–...
arXiv (Cornell University), 2023
Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechanism. There are also some shorter or longer timescales detected: the biennial cycle (2-2.7 years), Gleisberg cycle (80-100 years), and Hallstatt's cycle (2100-2300 years). Recently, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the observed solar background magnetic field (SBMF), another period of 330-380 years, or Grand Solar Cycle (GSC), was derived from the summary curve of two eigenvectors of SBMF. In this paper, a spectral analysis of the averaged sunspot numbers, solar irradiance, and the summary curve of eigenvectors of SBMF was carried out using Morlet wavelet and Fourier transforms. We detect a 10.7-year cycle from the sunspots and modulus summary curve of eigenvectors as well a 22 years cycle and the grand solar cycle of 342-350-years from the summary curve of eigenvectors. The Gleissberg centennial cycle is only detected on the full set of averaged sunspot numbers for 400 years or by adding a quadruple component to the summary curve of eigenvectors. Another period of 2200-2300 years is detected in the Holocene data of solar irradiance measured from the abundance of 14 C isotope. This period was also confirmed with the period of 2100 years derived from a baseline of the summary curve, supposedly, caused by the solar inertial motion (SIM) induced by the gravitation of large planets. The implication of these findings for different deposition of solar radiation into the northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth caused by the combined effects of the solar activity and solar inertial motion on the terrestrial atmosphere are also discussed
Statistical Effects in the Solar Activity Cycles during AD 1823–1996
ISRN Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2011
General statistical properties of solar activity cycles during the period AD 1823–1996—including the Gnevyshev-Ohl and Waldmeier effects as well as an amplitude-period effect—were analyzed using Wolf number, group sunspot number, and extended total sunspot area series. It was found out that the Gnevyshev-Ohl effect GO2 (the positive correlation between intensity of the even cycles2Nand intensity of the odd cycles2N+1) and the Waldmeier effect W2 (the anticorrelation between rise times of sunspot cycles and their amplitudes) are the most universal and robust features of the solar cycle. Other statistical relations were found appreciably sensitive to the selection of solar index, the interval of analysis, and the way of the cycle feature determination.
Solar Activity and Regional Climate
Radiocarbon, 2001
We performed a statistical analysis of the data on summer temperature anomalies in northern Fennoscandia (8–1995 AD) and found that a 70–130-yr cycle is present in this series during most of the time period. A comparison of the reconstructed northern Fennoscandia temperature with different indicators of solar activity (Wolf numbers, the length of solar Schwabe cycle, extended bi-decadal radiocarbon series, and data on sunspots observed by naked eye) shows that the more probable cause of the periodicity is the modulation of regional northern Fennoscandia climate by the long-term solar cycle of Gleissberg. The effect of this century-scale solar modulation of the global Northern Hemisphere temperature is weaker.
Calcite speleothems luminescence depends exponentially upon soil temperatures that are determined primarily by solar visible and infrared radiation. So microzonality of luminescence of speleothems was used as an indirect Solar Insolation (SI) proxy index. For Cold Water cave, Iowa, US we obtained high correlation coefficient of 0.9 between a luminescence record and the experimentally observed Solar Luminosity Sunspot index. We measured a luminescent speleothem record from Jewel Cave, South Dakota, US. It is still the first available experimental solar insolation proxy record with sufficiently long duration to reproduce the orbital variations. This record covers 89300- 138600 yrs B.P. with high resolution. It reveals determination of millennial and century cycles in the record. This solar insolation proxy record contains not only orbital variations, but also solar luminosity self variations, producing many cycles with duration from several centuries to 11500 years. The most powerful non- orbital cycle is 11500 years cycle (as powerful as the 23000 a. orbital cycle in our record). It was found previously to be the most intensive cycle in the delta C-14 calibration record and was interpreted to be of geomagnetic origin. Our recent studies suggest, that this is a solar cycle modulating the geomagnetic field. We found also cycles with duration of 6000, 4400, 3300, 2500, 2300, 1900 and 1460, years (in order of decreasing intensity) with amplitude ranging respectively from 3 to 0.7 % of the Solar Constant. Latest results suggest that these millennial solar luminosity cycles can produce climatic variations with intensity comparable to that of the orbital variations. Known decadal and even century solar cycles have negligible intensity (100 times less intensive) relatively to this cycles. Solar luminosity (SL) and orbital variations both cause variations of solar insolation affecting the climate by the same mechanism. In spite their influence over the geomagnetic field involve fundamentally different mechanisms, determined by the properties of the solar wind.
A critical look at solar-climate relationships from long temperature series
Climate of the Past, 2010
A key issue of climate change is to identify the forcings and their relative contributions. The solar-climate relationship is currently the matter of a fierce debate. We address here the need for high quality observations and an adequate statistical approach. A recent work by Le Mouël et al. (2010) and its companion paper by Kossobokov et al. (2010) show spectacular correlations between solar activity and temperature series from three European weather stations over the last two centuries. We question both the data and the method used in these works. We stress (1) that correlation with solar forcing alone is meaningless unless other forcings are properly accounted for and that sunspot counting is a poor indicator of solar irradiance, (2) that long temperature series require homogenization to remove historical artefacts that affect long term variability, (3) that incorrect application of statistical tests leads to interpret as significant a signal which arises from pure random fluctuations. As a consequence, we reject the results and the conclusions of Le Mouël et al. (2010) and Kossobokov et al. (2010). We believe that our contribution bears some general interest in removing confusion from the scientific debate.
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 2006
By applying the wavelet formalism to sudden storm commencements and aa geomagnetic indices and solar total irradiation, as a proxy data for solar sources of climate-forcing, we have searched the signatures of those variables on the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature. We have found that cyclical behaviour in surface temperature is not clearly related to none of these variables, so we have suggested that besides them surface temperature might be related to Earth's rotation rate variations. Also it has been suggested that in the long-term Earth's rotation rate variations might be excited by geomagnetic storm time variations which, in turn, depends on solar activity.
Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature data from the USA and Europe
Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 2008
We analyze temperature data from meteorological stations in the USA (six climatic regions, 153 stations), Europe (44 stations, considered as one climatic region) and Australia (preliminary, five stations). We select stations with long, homogeneous series of daily minimum temperatures (covering most of the 20th century, with few or no gaps). We find that station data are well correlated over distances in the order of a thousand kilometres. When an average is calculated for each climatic region, we find well characterized mean curves with strong variability in the 3-15-year period range and a superimposed decadal to centennial (or 'secular') trend consisting of a small number of linear segments separated by rather sharp changes in slope. Our overall curve for the USA rises sharply from 1910 to 1940, then decreases until 1980 and rises sharply again since then. The minima around 1920 and 1980 have similar values, and so do the maxima around 1935 and 2000; the range between minima and maxima is 1.3 8C. The European mean curve is quite different, and can be described as a step-like function with zero slope and a $1 8C jump occurring in less than two years around 1987. Also notable is a strong (cold) minimum in 1940. Both the USA and the European mean curves are rather different from the corresponding curves illustrated in the 2007 IPCC report. We then estimate the long-term behaviour of the higher frequencies (disturbances) of the temperature series by calculating the mean-squared interannual variations or the 'lifetime' (i.e. the mean duration of temperature disturbances) of the data series. We find that the resulting curves correlate remarkably well at the longer periods, within and between regions. The secular trend of all of these curves is similar (an S-shaped pattern), with a rise from 1900 to 1950, a decrease from 1950 to 1975, and a subsequent (small) increase. This trend is the same as that found for a number of solar indices, such as sunspot number or magnetic field components in any observatory. We conclude that significant solar forcing is present in temperature disturbances in the areas we analyzed and conjecture that this should be a global feature. To cite this article: J.-L. Le Mouël et al., C. R. Geoscience xxx (2008). # 2008 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences
We analyze ten of the longest (127 to 230 year-long) time series of European daily temperatures available from five different Köppen-Geiger climate classes. We split these according to the level of solar cycle activity (H for "higher than median" and L for "lower than median"). This reveals coherent patterns in the temperature differences: when T H − T L are stacked according to their calendar date, the daily averages from January 1 to December 31st disclose characteristic features in addition to the dominant annual seasonal wave, namely variations up to 2˚C lasting for about 1.5 to 3 months. The five observatories at intermediate latitudes in a band from Oxford in the West to Prague in the East (same climate class) have very similar signatures. These similarities are most unlikely to be due to pure chance (confirmed by confidence levels in excess of 99% with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Kuiper nonparametric tests). The T H − T L patterns carry a regional signature, modulated by a more local response function. On the other hand, northern European observatories (St Petersburg and Arkhangelsk), those south of the Alps (Milan and Bologna), and the easternmost one in Astrakhan, corresponding to different climate classes, have different signatures. Similarly, preliminary study of long air pressure recordings confirms what emerges from the analysis of temperatures. These new observations lead us to conclude that the climate in different regions presents different responses to variations in solar activity. Moreover, the distributions of the lower, middle, and higher quartiles of the temperature and pressure indices in solar cycles with high versus low activity are significantly different, providing further robust statistical confirmation to this conclusion (confidence level higher to much higher than 99% using the Kuiper test).