Good and simple – a dilemma in analytical processes? (original) (raw)
Related papers
Discussion with the paper 'Project costs planning in the conditions of uncertainty' by H. Štiková
Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika), 2014
In the paper, there is analysed one particular approach to the modelling uncertainty in the project management through an original version of the fuzzy CPM (Critical Path Method). First there is shown the relevance of using the fuzzy CPM in agriculture and the related branches and present the basics of the methods used. Then, there are described the imperfections of the work which is discussed and the impacts of the previously-published approach when applied in project management practice are emphasised. In the original paper, the author uses only the discrete fuzzy numbers for activity time durations which could be considered inappropriate for the time scheduling in project management. Consecutively, the direct application of the extension principle on the comparison of continuous durations could lead to the situation when both numbers can be greater than the second one with possibility equal to one. Moreover, the simple transformation of durations to the costs by linear equations ...
Project Appraisal Under Uncertainty
In most project evaluations the cost and particularly the benefit parameters values carry a high degree of uncertainty or subjective judgement. Nevertheless, it is general practice for evaluation to use single value estimates of parameters and for point estimates to be provided for the generated decision criteria (the benefit-cost ratio or net present value). This paper shows how risk and uncertainty can be simply incorporated into cost-benefit analysis through the application of probability theory. A simple Monte Carlo simulation computer programme was developed and a hypothetical road project, applying probabilistic principles, was analysed for illustrative purposes.
Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2022
A new systems approach to quantitative estimation of financial risks of investment projects was proposed: an integral risk of the project as a whole for all its parameters at once and the risks for each of its parameters separately. At the same time, the very concept of the project risk has been generalized: instead of the conventional risk of unprofitability, a new, more general concept of the risk of unacceptably low project profitability has been introduced. Two levels of the project profitability were considered: a level acceptable to the investor and a realistically achievable level. Corresponding values of design parameters and indices of financial efficiency of the project were found for these levels. Based on the found values, relative margins of investment acceptability and risks of unacceptably low profitability of the project were calculated. A procedure of comprehensive assessment of the risk of unacceptable low profitability of the project for cases of high certainty an...