Towards a rigorous MCMC estimation of PDFs of Climate System Properties (original) (raw)

2003

Abstract

We have revised the method for estimating the uncertainty in climate system properties from Forest et al. (2002). To apply a fully Bayesian approach, we first approximate the response of the MIT 2DLO climate model with a statistical model that provides a response surface in the uncertain parameter space. The three-dimensional parameter space is defined as climate sensitivity (S), rate

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