The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism (original) (raw)
Related papers
Socio-Economic Antecedents of Transnational Terrorism: Exploring the Correlation
Policies related to thwarting transnational terrorism have been at the forefront of political and social debates. In this paper we empirically examine the impacts of socioeconomic conditions on the probability and frequency of participation in transnational terrorism events. We use count data analysis techniques in combination with the newly combined annual data on transnational terrorism and socioeconomic variables from 1980 to 2000. We find strong correlations between economic conditions and probability and frequency of participation in terrorism events. Specifically, one of the key findings is a non-linear relationship between per capita income and participation in transnational terrorism. The results suggest that extreme poverty may preclude the opportunities to participate in terrorism acts while relative alleviation of poverty levels may provide marginal resources to participate in terrorism acts and materialize accumulated hatred. Similarly, education has a non-monotonic effect on the participation in terrorism acts, i.e., improving labor force education from primary to secondary level may increase frequencies of transnational terrorism. On the other hand, improving the labor force education from secondary to tertiary level may decrease the frequencies of transnational terrorism events. The results also indicate that economic freedom, openness to trade, income equity, and religion play a significant role in the probability and frequency of transnational terrorism events.
Socioeconomic and Demographic Roots of Terrorism
The Making of a Terrorist: Recruitment, Training and Root Causes, 2005
Although various hypotheses about the causes of terrorism have been proposed, a number of important factors have been largely ignored. Geopolitics, especially richworld attempts to control oil, help incite terrorist attacks on the rich by people from developing countries. But demographic and socioeconomic factors, especially poverty, inequality and large numbers of young men facing dim economic prospects, also are likely contributors to such terrorism. We show that those factors will not ameliorate soon without determined effort. Developed nations, particularly the United States, could help reduce terrorism by controlling over-consumption and increasing carefully targeted aid to developing nations.
Economic conditions and terrorism
European Journal of Political Economy, 2004
We explore the links between the incidence of terrorism and the state of a country's economy. Groups that are unhappy with the current economic status quo, yet unable to bring about drastic institutional changes, may find it rational to engage in terrorist activities. The result is a pattern of reduced economic activity and increased terrorism. In contrast, an alternative environment can emerge where access to economic resources is more abundant and terrorism is reduced. Our empirical results are consistent with the theory. We find that for democratic, high income countries, economic contractions lead to increased likelihood of terrorist activities. D
On the origin of domestic and international terrorism
European Journal of Political …, 2011
We analyze the determinants of the origin of domestic and international terrorism in a large panel data set of 159 countries spanning from 1970 to 2007. We show that terror increases with GDP per capita, a higher POLITY score measuring a more open and competitive political ...
Economic and Political Determinants of Terrorism in Selected European Countries
2020
In this paper, we aim to assess the connection between terrorist attacks and socioeconomic and political indicators through an empirical study of selected 16 European countries. In order to reduce the dimension of the problem, factor analysis is applied in order to transform the indicator variables into factors. The countries are classified into clusters based on similarity of their economic and political indicator development, using loadings of the indicators onto the factors. For countries in each cluster, the connection of their political and socioeconomic indicators with terrorist attacks is then studied via correlation analysis of the attacks and the aforementioned factors. We propose two hypotheses – the hypothesis of opportunity costs, and the hypothesis of economic deprivation. For countries in each cluster, the hypotheses are examined with the use of correlation analysis. The results indicate that economic development affects the frequency of terrorist attacks in Belgium, F...
A fundamental problem in psychosocial sciences is how to explain the root causes of terrorism. The vast literature has analyzed several determinants of terrorism. However, the precise role of demo-graphic factors for the evolution of terrorism is hardly known. Statistical evidence here reveals that fatalities for incidents of terrorism are associated with growth rates of population. This finding seems to suggest that terrorism thrives –in average– in specific regions with high growth rates of population that may generate income inequality, subsistence stress and relative deprivation of peo-ple. In addition, geospatial analysis here reveals that countries with high association between fatali-ties from terrorist incidents and population growth are mainly in Africa and Middle East. Overall, then, the study here can clarify and generalize whenever possible, one of the causes of terrorism, which seems to be due to sociodemographic factors combined with psychosocial risk factors. Final-ly, the study suggests socioeconomic policies directed to reduce this critical problem in society.
Journal of Islamic Thought and Civilization, 2019
Terrorism has become a threatening and fear-provoking phenomenon in the present times. The occurrence of terrorists' activities is carried on without discrimination of Muslim and Non-Muslim countries. The study aims to investigate the trends and severity of terrorism in both Muslim and Non-Muslim countries. A sample of forty five Muslim and one hundred and thirty Non-Muslim countries will be analysed. The role of strong economic indicators in reducing the surge of terrorism will be accessed and the relationship of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita with terrorism will also be calculated. Panel Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique will be used to examine the relationship among these variables and Per Capita GDP In both types of countries, terrorist activities will be evaluated through number of attacks, killings and injured persons. Besides this, correlation will be applied to examine the association among number of attacks, killings and injured persons. Descriptive statistics evidently indicates huge losses in the form of number of attacks, killings and injured people. From 1980s to 2015, total terrorist attacks, killed persons and injured persons are 67518, 188775 and 272683 respectively in Muslim countries. In the same way, in Non-Muslim countries, from 1980s to 2015, total terrorist attacks, killed persons and injured persons are 86914, 159386 and 167828 respectively. Number of injuries and killings are comparatively higher in Muslim countries whereas Non-Muslim countries have higher number of attacks. Elevated correlation is found among number of attacks, killings and injured persons. However, the correlation among per capita GDP and the other variables found negative. OLS findings as well show negative relationship among per capita GDP and number of attacks, killings and injured persons. With the increase in per capita GDP, terrorism can be minimized or reduced. Improvement in economic activity can also diminish terrorism outcomes particularly in developing countries.
The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)
European Journal of Political Economy, 2011
The main objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the socioeconomic causes of terrorism and political violence in a sample of 12 countries in Western Europe. Results are mixed. First, we show that in western European countries the classical economic argument of opportunity cost can be confirmed. That is, the larger is the set of economic opportunities for an individual the lower is the likelihood or the willingness for him to be involved in a terrorist activity. Second and, however, in line with modernization theory, expected future economic growth seems to be associated with an increase in current terrorist activities. Eventually, our results also show that terrorist brutality (measured in people killed) is explained following the productivity argument. That is, the number of terrorist casualties is positively associated with real GDP per capita.
The performed cross-national tests with negative binomial regression models support the presence of a curvilinear relationship between the quantitative expansion of education (measured with mean years of schooling) and terrorist attack intensity. Growth of schooling in the least educationally developed countries is associated with a significant ten- dency towards the growth of terrorist attack intensity. This tendency remains significant when controlled for income level, type of political regime, unemployment, inequality, and urbanization; wherein the peak of the terrorist attack intensity is observed for a relatively low, but not zero level of the quantitative expansion of formal education (approximately three to six years of schooling). Further growth of schooling in more developed countries is associated with a significant trend toward the decrease of terrorist attack intensity. This tendency remains significant after being controlled for income level, political regime, unemployment, inequality, and urbanization. The most radical decrease is observed for the interval between seven and eight mean years of schooling. In addi- tion, this quantitative analysis indicates the presence of a similar curvi- linear relationship between GDP per capita and terrorist attack intensity with a wide peak from 4000to4000 to 4000to14,000. The explanation of a curvilinear relationship between GDP per capita and terrorist activity through mean years of schooling intermediary can only be partial. The regression ana- lysis suggests that the growth of mean years of schooling with economic development of middle and high income countries may really be one of the factors accounting for the decrease of terrorist attacks in countries with GDP per capita growth. However, this regression analysis indicates that a partial role in the explanation of negative correlation between GDP per capita and terrorist attack intensity for middle and high income countries is also played by a lower level of unemployment rate in the high income countries, as well as by a very high share of consolidated democracies and an extremely low share of factional democracies among the high income states. It is especially worth noting that after the intro- duction of all controls, the coefficient sign for per capita GDP changes from negative to positive, i.e., GDP growth in middle and high income countries after the introduction of controls for inequality, education, unemployment, type of regime, etc. turns out to be a factor of increase rather than decline of the intensity of terrorist activity. On the one hand, this suggests that the negative correlation between per capita GDP and the level of terrorist activity in these countries is actually explained to an extremely high degree by the fact that per capita GDP growth here tends to be accompanied by an increase in the educational level of the popula- tion, a decrease in unemployment, a reduction in inequality, a decrease in the number of factional democracies, and an increase in the number of consolidated democracies. On the other hand, the positive sign (with a statistically significant correlation) indicates here that if in the middle and high countries economic growth is not accompanied by an increase in economic equality and education of the population, a decrease in unemployment, a decrease in the number of unstable factional democ- racies, and an increase in the number of consolidated democracies (that is, if in fact all the fruits of economic growth are captured by the elites, and almost nothing gets from this growth to the commoner population), then such economic growth would tend to lead to an increase in terrorist activity (and not to its reduction).