Intelligent Techniques for R&D Project Selection in Large Social Organizations (original) (raw)

Abstract Funding R&D projects is perhaps the most important task faced by large public organizations, in charge of promoting science and technology in different countries. However, most popular ways to solve this decision problem are based on too simple decision models,and weak,heuristics. In this paper a new methodology,is presented to assist top level managers ,of those ,organizations during ,the project evaluation phase ,until the final decision. This methodology,covers the following central points: a)a measure ,of the ,global impact and probability of success ,as main attributes to access the quality of a R&D project; b) a way to represent the knowledge, preferences and beliefs from the top level managers, and an approach to take into account that information in the evaluation process ; c) a way,to update the beliefs of the top level managers,by taking into account the experience of the whole organization; d)a numerical ,model ,of the ,quality of a project ,portfolio that can be...