Quantifying the movement patterns of birds from ring recoveries (original) (raw)
Related papers
Ecology and Evolution, 2014
For the study of migratory connectivity, birds have been individually marked by metal rings for more than 100 years. The resulting ring recovery data have been compiled in numerous bird migration atlases. However, estimation of what proportion of a particular population is migrating to which region is confounded by spatial heterogeneity in ring recovery probability. We present a product multinomial model that enables quantifying the continent-wide distribution of different bird populations during different seasons based on ring recovery data while accounting for spatial heterogeneity of ring recovery probability. We applied the model to an example data set of the European robin Erithacus rubecula. We assumed that ring recovery probability was equal between different groups of birds and that survival probability was constant. Simulated data indicate that violation of the assumption of constant survival did not affect our estimated bird distribution parameters but biased the estimates for recovery probability. Posterior predictive model checking indicated a good general model fit but also revealed lack of fit for a few groups of birds. This lack of fit may be due to between-group differences in the spatial distribution on smaller scales within regions. We found that 48% of the Scandinavian robins, but only 31% of the central European robins, wintered in northern Africa. The remaining parts of both populations wintered in southern and central Europe. Therefore, a substantial part of the Scandinavian population appears to leap over individuals from the central European population during migration. The model is applied to summary tables of numbers of ringed and recovered birds. This allows us to handle very large data sets as, for example, those presented in bird migration atlases.
PLoS ONE, 2014
Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908-2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area ('progression of migration') and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908-1969, 1970-1990, 1991-2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals.
Estimating avian dispersal distances from data on ringed birds
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2003
Data from birds ringed as chicks and recaptured during subsequent breeding seasons provide information on avian natal dispersal distances. However, national patterns of ring reports are influenced by recapture rates as well as by dispersal rates. While an extensive methodology has been developed to study survival rates using models that correct for recapture rates, the same is not true for dispersal. Here, we present such a method, showing how corrections for spatial heterogeneity in recapture rate can be built into estimates of dispersal rates if detailed atlas data and ringing totals can be combined with extensive data on birds ringed as chicks and recaptured as breeding adults. We show how the method can be implemented in the software package SURVIV (White, 1992). 1 Introduction Key biological processes, such as survival and dispersal, can be studied by ringing birds to make them individually identifiable. The fate of most ringed individuals remains unknown however, and the pattern of recaptures is governed not only by the biological processes themselves but also by the distribution and activities of ringers. Over recent decades there have been extensive developments in methods that contend with such nuisance variables when estimating survival (
Bird ringing in Britain and Ireland in 2010
2011
This is the 74th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering data received and work carried out in 2010. Analytical work in the year concentrated on considering how we can improve demographic monitoring, an increasing focus for the Scheme. A broad review of the availability of demographic and count data for terrestrial-breeding species was carried out. This work will be further extended in 2011. To inform conservation we need to build population models for species with a range of ecologies and occupying different habitats. Reports of ringed birds make a large contribution to our understanding of two key demographic parameters – survival and dispersal. An analysis of Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita recovery data from across Europe suggested they are tending to migrate south later and north earlier over time. There is also a suggestion that the migratory journey is shortening. Analysis of biometrics of birds wintering in Britain showed that they are largely from the breeding populations of the nominate race in Britain and the near Continent. Constant Effort Sites (CES) data showed that, for seven of the 24 species monitored, there was a significant decrease in adult abundance compared to the mean of the previous five years. As six of these species were residents, this may have been a result of the second severe winter in succession, although there was a short-term increase for Long-tailed Tit Aegithalos caudatus, which is usually affected by cold winters. The adult abundance of several long-distance migrants also increased. A long-term decline (1984–2000) is, however, still evident for five migrants and three residents, although for Willow Tit Poecile montana and Linnet Carduelis cannabina the sample sizes are low. The abundance of the short-distance migrants, Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla and Chiffchaff, has increased, possibly as a result of climate change. Productivity was higher than the mean of the previous five years for 12 species with the long-term trend increasing for eight species – four migrants and four residents. The only significant decreases were for Blackbird Turdus merula and Long-tailed Tit, possibly as these species breed early and were affected by the severe winter. Dry summer weather is also likely to have contributed to the low productivity of Blackbirds and increasingly dry summers may be implicated in the long-term declines in productivity for both Blackbird and Song Thrush Turdus philomelos. Long-term trends in survival rates were produced using CES data for the first time in 2010. These suggested that the cold winter weather in 2009–10 reduced the survival rate of resident ground-feeding insectivores such as Dunnock Prunella modularis, Blackbird, Wren Troglodytes troglodytes and Robin Erithacus rubecula. Survival rates of migrants were relatively high, particularly for Garden Warbler Sylvia borin and Sedge Warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus, possibly as a result of good conditions on the wintering grounds or passage sites. Data for 129 Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) studies covering 39 species were submitted. For the first time we were able to calculate good or moderate annual estimates of survival for 18 species. A list of priority species for RAS was developed and promoted to volunteers. The total number of birds ringed (1,096,533) was the highest ever recorded, as well as being the first time the annual total has surpassed 1 million. It was 28% higher than the mean of the previous five years and 17% higher than in 2009. However, the total number of pulli ringed in 2009 (193,554) was only 12% higher than the preceding five-year mean, while that of fully grown birds (902,979) was 32% higher. The recovery total (17,315) was also the highest ever. This is partly due to changes in the way that records of colour-ringed and other specially marked birds are stored, but also reflects the increasing number of birds being ringed by a growing number of ringers. The number of recoveries of foreign-ringed birds (2,427) was higher than the mean of the preceding five years; this figure was influenced by varying response times of different ringing schemes, but was also partly as a result of multiple sightings. Recovery details for 221 individual birds are given in the final section of the report. They include movements that confirm suspected or known migration patterns, unexpected movements and longevity records.
Bird ringing in Britain and Ireland in 2000
Ringing & Migration, 2002
This is the 68th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering work carried out, and data received, in 2004. During the year, changes in bird survival in relation to winter weather were studied. In almost all cases, there was a greater influence of weather on firstyear than adult survival. A paper providing guidelines to help those setting up demographic monitoring schemes for waders was produced, with ringing as a key component. Concern about a reduction in reporting rates of ringed birds led to a study of the changes. Declines were found across nearly all taxonomic groups and may reflect a combination of changes in reporting behaviour, ringing behaviour or bird behaviour. A study of the timing of muirburning used the ringing dates of pulli in conjunction with nest record data to assess its possible effect on breeding birds. There appears to be little reason for differences in cutoff dates for muirburning in different regions and at different altitudes, but further work is required to quantify more fully the effects on moorland birds. Data gathered as part of the Constant Effort Sites (CES) Scheme showed increases in the numbers of adults of several, mainly migrant, species, possibly as a result of high rainfall in Africa south of the Sahara. Productivity was good for most species. Cetti's Warbler Cettia cetti was added to the list of species covered and a study of habitat on CE sites showed that vegetation management mitigates the effect of habitat progression on catching rates. Data for 117 Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) studies were submitted. Over 12,000 Swallows Hirundo rustica were ringed as part of the Swallow Roost Project. The total number of birds ringed (881,920) was the highest ever, showing an 18% increase on the mean of the previous five years (1999-2003). The recovery total (11,930) also increased (by 9% compared to the mean of the previous five years). Recoveries of 154 BTO-ringed birds and 102 ringed abroad are presented in the report. They include records that confirm suspected or known migration patterns as well as the more unexpected movements.
Bird ringing in Britain and Ireland in 2004
2005
This is the 68th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering work carried out, and data received, in 2004. During the year, changes in bird survival in relation to winter weather were studied. In almost all cases, there was a greater influence of weather on firstyear than adult survival. A paper providing guidelines to help those setting up demographic monitoring schemes for waders was produced, with ringing as a key component. Concern about a reduction in reporting rates of ringed birds led to a study of the changes. Declines were found across nearly all taxonomic groups and may reflect a combination of changes in reporting behaviour, ringing behaviour or bird behaviour. A study of the timing of muirburning used the ringing dates of pulli in conjunction with nest record data to assess its possible effect on breeding birds. There appears to be little reason for differences in cutoff dates for muirburning in different regions and at different altitudes, but further work is required to quantify more fully the effects on moorland birds. Data gathered as part of the Constant Effort Sites (CES) Scheme showed increases in the numbers of adults of several, mainly migrant, species, possibly as a result of high rainfall in Africa south of the Sahara. Productivity was good for most species. Cetti's Warbler Cettia cetti was added to the list of species covered and a study of habitat on CE sites showed that vegetation management mitigates the effect of habitat progression on catching rates. Data for 117 Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) studies were submitted. Over 12,000 Swallows Hirundo rustica were ringed as part of the Swallow Roost Project. The total number of birds ringed (881,920) was the highest ever, showing an 18% increase on the mean of the previous five years (1999-2003). The recovery total (11,930) also increased (by 9% compared to the mean of the previous five years). Recoveries of 154 BTO-ringed birds and 102 ringed abroad are presented in the report. They include records that confirm suspected or known migration patterns as well as the more unexpected movements.
Bird ringing in Britain and Ireland in 2005
Ringing & Migration, 2007
This is the 68th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering work carried out, and data received, in 2004. During the year, changes in bird survival in relation to winter weather were studied. In almost all cases, there was a greater influence of weather on firstyear than adult survival. A paper providing guidelines to help those setting up demographic monitoring schemes for waders was produced, with ringing as a key component. Concern about a reduction in reporting rates of ringed birds led to a study of the changes. Declines were found across nearly all taxonomic groups and may reflect a combination of changes in reporting behaviour, ringing behaviour or bird behaviour. A study of the timing of muirburning used the ringing dates of pulli in conjunction with nest record data to assess its possible effect on breeding birds. There appears to be little reason for differences in cutoff dates for muirburning in different regions and at different altitudes, but further work is required to quantify more fully the effects on moorland birds. Data gathered as part of the Constant Effort Sites (CES) Scheme showed increases in the numbers of adults of several, mainly migrant, species, possibly as a result of high rainfall in Africa south of the Sahara. Productivity was good for most species. Cetti's Warbler Cettia cetti was added to the list of species covered and a study of habitat on CE sites showed that vegetation management mitigates the effect of habitat progression on catching rates. Data for 117 Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) studies were submitted. Over 12,000 Swallows Hirundo rustica were ringed as part of the Swallow Roost Project. The total number of birds ringed (881,920) was the highest ever, showing an 18% increase on the mean of the previous five years (1999-2003). The recovery total (11,930) also increased (by 9% compared to the mean of the previous five years). Recoveries of 154 BTO-ringed birds and 102 ringed abroad are presented in the report. They include records that confirm suspected or known migration patterns as well as the more unexpected movements.