Does Monetary Policy Affect Bank Risk-Taking? (original) (raw)
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BIS Working Papers No 298 Does monetary policy affect bank risk-taking ?
2010
This paper investigates the relationship between short-term interest rates and bank risk. Using a unique database that includes quarterly balance sheet information for listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States in the last decade, we find evidence that unusually low interest rates over an extended period of time contributed to an increase in banks' risk. This result holds for a wide range of measures of risk, as well as macroeconomic and institutional controls.
BBSWP / 12 / 0002 Does monetary policy affect bank risk ?
2012
We investigate the effect of relatively loose monetary policy on bank risk through a large panel including quarterly information from listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find evidence that relatively low levels of interest rates over an extended period of time contributed to an increase in bank risk. This result holds for a wide range of measures of risk, as well as macroeconomic and institutional controls including the intensity of supervision, securitization activity and bank competition. The results also hold when changes in realized bank risk due to the crisis are accounted for. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral from a financial stability perspective.
2012
We investigate the effect of relatively loose monetary policy on bank risk through a large panel including quarterly information from listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find evidence that relatively low levels of interest rates over an extended period of time contributed to an increase in bank risk. This result holds for a wide range of measures of risk, as well as macroeconomic and institutional controls including the intensity of supervision, securitization activity and bank competition. The results also hold when changes in realized bank risk due to the crisis are accounted for. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral from a financial stability perspective.
Does monetary policy affect bank risk?
2012
We investigate the effect of relatively loose monetary policy on bank risk through a large panel including quarterly information from listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find evidence suggesting that relatively low levels of interest rates over an extended period of time contributed to an increase in bank risk. This result holds for a wide range of measures of risk, as well as macroeconomic and institutional controls including the intensity of supervision, securitization activity, and bank competition. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral from a financial stability perspective.
Low Interest Rates and Bank Risk-Taking: Has the Crisis Changed Anything? Evidence from the Eurozone
Review of Economic and Business Studies, 2015
This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on bank risk-taking and the influence of the recent financial crisis on this relation. We use a dataset of 571 commercial banks from Eurozone and analyze the relation on the period from 1999 to 2011, with emphasize on the period 2008 to 2011. We use non-performing loans, loan loss provisions and Z-score as measures for bank risk-taking, while for monetary policy the proxies are short-term interest rates (computed using a Taylor rule) and long-term interest rates. We determine the relation between the two by taking into account some specific control variables and analyze it using an entity fixed-effects model and Generalized Method of Moments, alternatively. Empirical results point to a negative relation between interest rates and bank risk-taking. In addition to this, results show that the crisis has led to an additional negative impact on the relation between interest rates and bank risk-taking for the turmoil period 2008-2011.
Do bank characteristics influence the effect of monetary policy on bank risk?
Economics Letters, 2012
We analyze whether the impact of monetary policy on bank risk depends upon bank characteristics. We relate the materialization of bank risk during the financial crisis to differences in the monetary policy stance and bank characteristics in the pre-crisis period for a large sample of listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find that the insulation effect produced by capital and liquidity buffers on bank risk was lower for banks operating in countries that, prior to the crisis, experienced a particularly prolonged period of low interest rates.
Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk-taking in the Euro Area Banking Sector
Social Science Research Network, 2019
Available empirical evidence on the significance of the (micro) risk-taking channel of monetary policy is not sufficient to indicate a threat to financial stability. This research has the objective of determining whether conventional and unconventional monetary policies have resulted in systemic risk-taking. To that end, it uses statistical measures that capture systemic risk in the banking sector of the euro area in all its forms allowing for the time-varying non-linearities and feedback effects typical of financial markets. The methodology is a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. The main result is that there is systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector. It takes the form of an increase in the banking sector's vulnerability via contagion and interconnectedness. Banks' balance sheets, however, do not account for the full transmission from (micro) risk taking to systemic risk-taking confirming the importance of accounting for time-varying non-linearities and feedback effects. The main policy implication is that persistently accommodative monetary policy geared toward preserving price stability may face a trade-off with financial stability. In that case, monetary policy will require coordination with macro-prudential policy.
Re-exploring the nexus between monetary policy and banks' risk-taking
Economic Modelling, 2019
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Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy and Banking Stability: Evidence from the Euro Area
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013
We analyze the impact on lending standards of monetary policy rates and macroprudential policy before the 2008 crisis, and of monetary rates and long-term public liquidity during the crisis. Exploiting the euro-area institutional setting for monetary and prudential policy and using the Bank Lending Survey, we find robust evidence that low monetary policy interest rates soften lending conditions unrelated to borrowers' risk in the period prior to the crisis, and some suggestive evidence of excessive risk-taking due to low interest rates for mortgage loans. Moreover, the impact of low monetary policy rates on the softening of standards is reduced by more stringent prudential policy on either bank capital or loan-to-value ratio. After the start of the 2008 crisis, we find that low monetary rates soften lending conditions that were tightened because of bank capital and liquidity constraints, especially for business loans. Importantly, this softening effect is stronger for banks that borrow more long-term liquidity from the Eurosystem. Therefore, the results suggest that monetary policy rates and public provision of long-term liquidity complement each other in reducing a credit crunch for firms.