Combining Imprecise or Conflicting Probability Judgments: A Choice-Based Study (original) (raw)

Abstract

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This research explores how managers integrate probabilistic forecasts from multiple advisors with varying degrees of precision and consensus. It investigates the impact of these advisors' communication styles on decision-makers' beliefs and choices, emphasizing that both ambiguity and conflict in advisories can influence managers' confidence and trust. Findings suggest that the integration of these conflicting messages can lead to irrational decision-making behaviors.

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