Public Investment under Fiscal Constraints* (original) (raw)
Related papers
Public investment and the EU fiscal framework
European Economy Economic Papers, 2004
It is often claimed that the introduction of the EU rules-based fiscal framework of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact was responsible for a decline in public investment shares in EU countries. Proposals have also been made in recent times in favour of a revision of the EU fiscal framework in such a way to grant special treatment to public capital expenditures (e.g., by amending it with a 'golden rule'). This paper analyses empirically the relation between the introduction of the EU fiscal framework and public investment. Results from panel data analysis suggest that the impact of the EU rules for fiscal discipline is not a clear-cut one. On the one hand, after phase II of EMU, public investment is found to be more negatively affected by debt levels. This is consistent with the view that in the run-up to Maastricht the budgetary adjustment implied a significant decline in public investment, especially in high-debt countries. On the other hand, results indicate that after phase II of EMU the negative relation between previous-period budget balances and public investment started being insignificant, meaning that the improvement in the budget balances consequent to the introduction of the EU fiscal rules may have helped to create room for public investment in several EU countries. An illustration of the main trade-offs involved by amending the EU fiscal framework with a golden rule is also provided and the policy issues raised by the rising recourse to Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP) contracts to carry out public purpose investment projects are discussed.
The Impact of Growing Public Debt on Economic Growth in the European Union
The Amfiteatru Economic Journal, 2014
The paper attempts to empirically explore the transmission mechanism regarding the shortterm impact of public debt and growth. We examine and evaluate the direct effect of higher indebtedness on economic growth for countries in the EU which are in the epicentre of the current sovereign debt crisis. In comparison to similar empirical studies, our research will add to the existing literature by extending the sample of countries and providing the latest empirical evidence for a non-linear and concave (i.e. inverted U-shape) relationship. The empirical analysis primarily includes a panel dataset of 25 sovereign member states of the EU. Our sample of EU countries is divided into subgroups distinguishing between so-called 'old' member states, covering the period 1980-2010, and 'new' member states, covering the period 1995-2010. In order to account for the impact of the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio on the real growth rate of GDP, we employ a panel estimation on a generalized economic growth model augmented with a debt variable, while also considering some methodological issues like the problems of heterogeneity and endogeneity. The results across all models indicate a statistically significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. Further, the calculated debt-to-GDP turning point, where the positive effect of accumulated public debt inverts into a negative effect, is roughly between 80% and 94% for the 'old' member states. Yet for the 'new' member states the debt-to-GDP turning point is lower, namely between 53% and 54%. Therefore, we may conclude that the threshold value for the 'new' member states is lower than for the 'old' member states. In general, the research may contribute to a better understanding of the problem of high public debt and its effect on economic activity in the EU.
Does Public Debt Hamper Economic Growth: Evidence from European Transitional Countries
Knowledge, 2019
Lately, there has been an increased interest among policy makers and scholars regarding the nexus between public debt and economic growth, with emphasizes on its effects on transition economies, particularly after the last global financial crisis. This paper tries to investigate the impact of public debt on economic growth in the European transition economies, for the time spin 2000-2016, by using Pooled OLS, Fixed effects, Random effects and Hausman-Taylor Instrumental variable (IV). In addition, results reveal that public debt although has positive effect on per capita growth still is statistically insignificant, whereas debt square has negative effect on per capita GDP growth. Further, gross savings, final consumption and fixed capital formation have positive effect on per capita growth, while government expenditures do not show significant impact. Moreover, such results highlight important implications for fiscal policymakers in these countries in order to foster the economic growth in the context of public debt level.
Government Spending Adjustment: The OECD Since the 1990s 1
2005
This paper investigates the drastic reduction in public spending in OECD countries during the 1990s. Using a panel data set of 18 countries, we find this adjustment to be a general OECD development, beginning in 1994, and that participation in the Maastricht Treaty or in the Stability and Growth Pact does not introduce additional effects. In the long run, this adjustment is estimated to reduce the ratio of primary government spending to output by about 4 percentage points. There is no evidence of differential adjustment in expansions or recessions. We also find that declines in interest payments on public debt are followed by increases in primary expenditures by about the same amount. The econometric framework makes it possible to compute the long-run ratios of government expenditures to GDP in the 18 OECD countries in the sample.
Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States*
Fiscal Studies, 2011
In this paper we analyze the dynamics of public investment and public finance in new members of the European Union, and also how these sectors were affected by changes in economic freedom and corruption. When we assess the role of regulation and corruption on public investment, we find that improvements in economic freedom tend to be associated with decreases in public investment, while reductions in corruption produce effects going in both directions. Similarly, we show that increases in public investment are often linked with decreases as well as increases in corruption. In terms of public finance we detect mostly improvement in debt when there is less economic regulation, while results for a deficit are less conclusive. On the other hand, improvements in the corruption environment are mostly associated with decreases in the deficit as well as debt. As a general rule that follows from our results, steps aimed at reducing corruption and the degree of economic regulation should lead towards improvements in the fiscal position in most of the new EU countries.
2010
In this paper we evaluate the influence of the modification of public investment level and unemployment rate on the general government deficit at the European Union level. We create a regression model that shows that a sustained and increased investment policy and the reduction of unemployment rate have a favorable effect on the objective of minimizing the budget deficit. In the last years European Union’s countries had to face a difficult problem concerning fiscal policy. They have to make public investments to stimulate economic growth and in the same time they have to meet the convergence criteria’s of public deficit. On the other hand, EU has to deal with a higher rate of unemployment. Through our model we try to see how European Union countries should implement their political strategies on unemployment and investment with the main objective of reducing the general government deficit.
College of William and Mary, Department of …, 2006
In a period of heightened concern about fiscal consolidation in the euro area a politically expedient way of controlling the public budget is to cut public investment. A critical question, however, is whether or not political expediency comes at a cost, in terms of both long-term economic performance and future budgetary contention efforts. First, common wisdom suggests that public investments have positive effects on economic performance although the empirical evidence is less clear. Second, it is conceivable that public investment has such strong effects on output, that over time it generates enough additional tax revenues to pay for itself. Obviously, it is equally plausible that the effects on output although positive are not strong enough for the public investment to pay for itself. In this paper we investigate these issues empirically for the twelve countries in the euro area using a vector auto-regressive approach. We conclude that the euro countries can be gathered in four groups according to the nature of the economic and budgetary impact of public investment. The first group includes Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Netherlands, where the economic effects are either negative or positive but very small and, therefore, cuts will be harmless for the economy and effective from a budgetary perspective. The second group includes Finland, Portugal, and Spain, where public investment does not pay for itself and, therefore, cuts are an effective tool of budgetary consolidation although they are harmful for the economy. The third group includes France, Greece, and Ireland where public investment just pays for itself and therefore cuts are not an effective way of achieving long-term budgetary consolidation and are harmful for the economy. Finally, the fourth group includes Germany and Italy, where public investment more than pays for itself and, therefore, cuts are not only harmful for the economy but also counterproductive from a budgetary perspective. JEL Codes: C32, E62, H54
Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007
Is there any systematic explanation of variations in the cost of debt servicing over time and across countries? This paper examines the influence of fiscal variables on borrowing costs in a panel of OECD countries, showing that these variables have a significant role. In particular, an improvement of the primary fiscal balance and a reduction in the stock of outstanding debt are associated with significant reductions in debt servicing costs, amplifying the effects of primary adjustment on the fiscal position. These effects appear to be non-linear: more pronounced for highly-indebted countries. A significant country-specific component remains, however; several explanations for this component are discussed, including debt management and market infrastructure.
Government expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short-term adjustment
Available at SSRN 2004461, 2007
This paper analyses the both the long and the short-run relation between government expenditure and potential output in EU countries. Having a satisfactory measurement of these relations has relevant implications for policy. From a long-term perspective, it improves the understanding of the links between output growth and public finances sustainability. Over a medium-to short-run horizon, it provides a benchmark to evaluate the stance of expenditure policy. In the analysis, the panel dimension of the data set is exploited in such a way: (i) to improve the power of statistical tests for the analysis of the dynamic properties of macroeconomic series through panel unit root and panel cointegration tests; (ii) to obtain country-specific information on adjustment dynamics by means of pooled mean group estimation . Results show that, over a sample comprising EU-15 countries over the 1970-2003 period, it cannot be rejected the hypothesis of a common long-term elasticity between cyclically-adjusted primary expenditure and potential output close to unity. The long-run elasticity is however not stable over time (it decreased considerably over the decades) and is significantly higher than unity in catching-up countries, in fast-ageing countries, in low-debt countries, and in countries with weak numerical rules for the control of government spending. The average speed of adjustment of government expenditure to its long-tem relation is 3 years, but there are significant differences across countries. Anglo-saxon and Nordic countries exhibit in general a faster adjustment process, while adjustment in Southern European countries appears somehow slower.