The reaction of asset prices to macroeconomic announcements in new EU markets: Evidence from intraday data (original) (raw)

Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets

Review of International Economics, 2011

We analyze foreign news and spillovers in the emerging EU stock markets (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland). We employ high-frequency five-minute intraday data on stock market index returns and four classes of EU and US macroeconomic announcements during 2004-07. We account for the difference of each announcement from its market expectation and we jointly model the volatility of the returns accounting for intraday movements and day-of-the-week effects. Our findings show that intraday interactions on the new EU markets are strongly determined by mature stock markets as well as the macroeconomic news originating thereby. We show that strong contemporaneous links across markets are present even after controlling for macroeconomic announcements. Finally, in terms of specific announcements, we are able to show the exact sources of macro news spillovers from the developed foreign markets to the three new EU markets under research.

The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

Empirica, 2012

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, both US and European macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Third, there are country-specific differences: for example, the Czech stock market is relatively more affected by foreign news since the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002. In general, our results support the hypothesis of a deepening euro area influence on the CEEC-3 over time and a corresponding reduction in the relative importance of US shocks.

Surprise Effect of Euro Area Macroeconomic Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

Prague Economic Papers, 2016

The macroeconomic announcements and their effects on stock markets are considered tobe a measure of stock market integration. Earlier studies show that integrated stock markets exhibit immediate reaction to international macroeconomic news, whereas partially integrated or segmented markets mostly do not react to such announcements. This paper investigates the effect of surprises disguised in the macroeconomic announcements made by the European Monetary Union on CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) stock markets. Daily stock market data starting from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2012 is analysed. The impact of macroeconomic announcements is estimated by using EGARCH model. The results show that the returns of four out of six CIVETS stock markets significantly react on the day of macroeconomic announcements, whereas the market volatility of all markets is affected due to the EMU’s announcements. The results also show that not all types of announcem...

The Impact Of The Domestic And Foreign Macroeconomic News Announcements On The Turkish Stock Market

2016

This study investigates the impacts of the US and domestic macroeconomic news announcements on the Turkish stock market volatility. We analyze the GARCH volatilities behaviour of Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 stock index around announcement and nonannouncement days. We test 13 US and 8 Turkish macroeconomic news announcements and used daily data for the period 01.04.201012.31.2015. We find that both US and Turkish GDP news announcements and also US new residential sales have significant impacts by increasing the volatility, which indicates the increasing uncertainty in these news announcements days. On the other hand, the total US and total domestic macroeconomic news effects do not have significant impacts on the BIST 100 volatility. Since the world stock markets integration can be investigated with respect to the macroeconomic news announcements of developed markets, our results indicate that Turkish stock market is less integrated and suggest portfolio diversification opportunities f...

The Impact of Macroeconomic news on stock market performance: A Germany, Italy and Greece based Investigation

The working paper investigates the existence of a relationship between macroeconomic news and performance of the Deutch Hellenic and Italian stock market. OLS methodology is chosen to isolate economic news components of the observed macroeconomic indicators. The estimation results show that macroeconomic news related to interest rates or Government bonds with 10 years of maturity and GDP have a significant impact on the stock market performance. It is also revealed that stock returns shocks respond more to unexpected events not only economical or political, but also events occurred worldwide.

Global stock market reactions to scheduled U.S. macroeconomic news announcements

Global Finance Journal, 2006

This study investigates how global stock markets are integrated with respect to the U.S. macroeconomic news announcements. Although both investors on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets are interested in those news releases their general importance to stock market investors can be expected to vary across economic regions as a result of differences in dependence on international trade, size of the market, foreign ownership and the industrial and economic structures. To investigate this issue we analyze the behavior of GARCH volatilities around ten important scheduled U.S. macroeconomic news announcements on 35 local stock markets that are divided in six regions. The results show that the G7 countries, the European countries other than G7 countries, developed Asian countries and emerging Asian countries are closely integrated with respect to the U.S. macroeconomic news, while Latin America and Transition economies are not affected by U.S. news. These results support the earlier findings, such as Bekaert and Harvey [

Are the Announcements Regarding Macroeconomic Fundamentals Responsible for Changes in the Dynamics of Stock Markets? CEE vs Developed Markets

Hyperion Economic Journal, 2015

Fama (1965) postulates that a market is efficient if the prices of the traded assets are an accurate estimator of their value. Moreover, the random walk hypothesis states that all the information available is included in the price of a certain asset. This paper aims to investigate if a series of macroeconomic announcements generates abnormal evolutions for Central and East European stock market indices and also for indices belonging to countries with solid and liquid financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, we use an event study that extends the methodology found in Albu et al (2014a). Our analysis is carried out both in terms of abnormal returns and abnormal variances. We find that the battery of macroeconomic announcements does not influence the dynamics of the indices considered in this study. In spite of this, our results point out strong effects in terms of abnormal variances, both for CEE and developed countries.

More on the impact of US macroeconomic announcements: Evidence from French and German stock markets' volatility

2012

This paper investigates the impact of US scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the domestic, the French and the German market, respectively using an augmented version of the multivariate DCC-GARCH model. Our setting allows to separate the direct effect (common response), from the indirect effect (volatility transmission) of the US macroeconomic announcements on the two European markets. Empirical results show evidence of a direct reaction of French and German investors to some common as well as specific US macroeconomic news. More interestingly, a significant bidirectional volatility spillover after the release of some macroeconomic news is found to be apparent, either between the US and German markets or between the US and French markets, although the French market shows a more sensitivity to US macroeconomic surprises than the German market. These findings suggest a stronger integration of the US stock market with the French market rather than with the German market.

Return equicorrelation and dynamic spillovers between Central and Eastern European, and World* 1 stock markets, 2010-2019

Regional Statistics, 2022

Globalisation and financial development have significantly integrated stock markets worldwide. A higher degree of interrelatedness and integration provides firms with increased access to global capital markets and a reduced cost of equity. This study examines the evolution of the return and volatility spillover effects between the world stock index, and the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries’ (Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania) stock markets using both the multivariate dynamic equicorrelation – generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DECO-GARCH) model and the spillover index. The results indicate that the average return equicorrelation across the CEE and world stock indices is positive. This impairs the benefits of CEE and world portfolio diversification. In addition, bidirectional return and volatility between the world stock index’s and CEE stock markets’ returns exist in the aftermath of the recent European debt crisis. Importantly, the net volatility spillover bursts in either a negative or positive direction, and its sign changes over the study period. Finally, the author employ Clark–West’s (2007) test of equal mean squared prediction error, and show that the world stock index can help predict the future returns and volatility of the CEE stock markets. These findings have significant implications for portfolio investors and policymakers interested in the CEE and world stock markets in predicting portfolio market risk exposures and determining the persistence of diversification benefits in these markets.