Scenarios and the art of worldmaking (original) (raw)
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Extending the Scenario Horizon: Putting Narratives to Work
Journal of Futures Studies
The quest for agency lies at the heart of futures work. Vuokko Jarva in her lead article for this number suggests that a clearer conception and application of narrative futures may well offer practitioners a bridge between the inner work of futures that seeks to problematize all certainties and the 'realities' such certainties uphold and the necessary structural features in which all human activity takes place. Thus she observes: " Deeper participation can be achieved when the co-partners of a futures project create the future narrative, its storyworld, characters, goals, and means, as well as plan and also realize the action. The end of the story can then be the state of the future at some point in time, possibly years from the start of the story. The narrative can live alongside the action and it can change when the situation changes. " (Jarva, 2014, p. 21) Jarva contends that the narrative evocation of scenario work is only half done if left at the end of a scen...
FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 2020
Scenarios can be viewed as narratives about alternative futures. As such, they are a formalization of something everybody does naturally as they think about the future—imagine what might happen instead of what they expect to happen, and figure out how to make the alternative happen instead, if it is better than what is expected, or how to make sure it does not happen (or what to do if it does happen), if it is worse than what is expected.. On the assumption that understanding this natural form of think ahead may be useful to those involved in scenario planning, the structure and uses of narrative thought are discussed, particularly in regard to how they result in what are commonly referred to as cognitive biases and to problems of reaching consensus in groups.
Crafting the "myths of the future": the art and science of writing scenarios in scenario planning
2019
2019 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.The purpose of this research was to investigate scenario writing as a discrete component of the scenario planning process. While ongoing scholarship on scenario planning has added data to support many of the outcomes of the process, the specific guidance to writers of scenarios has remained largely absent from the literature. For those who would write scenarios either as practitioners or as organizational members who tackle the process, more information would be useful to inform the writing. This research had two aims. First, to distill the available literature on scenario writing into a practical model for writers. In addition to reviewing scenario planning literature, this work also considered the impact of specific genres of writing: science fiction, with its future-oriented frame; theater, with its performance and lived-experience approach to content; and short stories, with their high-impact, short-format structure. Beyond types o...
Many management scholars, and some practitioners, argue that scenario planning remains under-theorised, that it has a weak evidence base, and that in practice it is often too reactive. Responding to these critiques, we contribute to the development of sociologically informed scenario practices which are more proactive (or " transformative "). The paper is grounded in an examination of scenario practices at CSIRO (Australia's national science organisation), focussed on the Future Fuels Forum, and a theory of social fields. The case illustrates that both convening a scenario exercise and the construction and/or use of scenarios can be forms of context-specific strategic action, often aimed at inducing cooperation as part of skilled social action. It also illustrates that the impacts of scenario exercises are influenced by the fluidity of the situation and associated field-level processes; the social skill of actors and their ability to construct and use scenarios in ways that help to solve related problems; and the outcomes of political processes. We also identify key implications for practice.
Exploring the arts of crafting and delivering scenarios
International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2012
This article explores the arts of crafting and delivering scenarios. Scenario literature is quite clear about the general scenario development process, but little guidance is offered when it comes to actually sitting down and writing scenario narratives. In addition, even less guidance is available for those learning how to deliver scenarios to an audience. In other words, writing and delivering scenarios are two key practical activities, for which there is little assistance to the novice. The goal of this article was to review any available published literature on these two topics, and add to it our expertise in hopes of providing the novice scenario facilitator with some detailed information about how to accomplish these two critical pieces of scenario planning. Implications for human resource development research, theory, and practice are described and outlined, as well as implications for much needed additional research.
Scenario Planning, Art or Science?
World Futures: The Journal of Global Education, 2005
This article will argue that there is a science of scenario planning; or at least a logos, a logic, a scenariology. Scenario planning is not predictive. But a good set of scenarios, scientifically developed, can reliably and predictably change minds. Scenario planning is both art and science. In joining the club of the sciences, scenario planning calls for a new kind of membership, or a new kind of science, one that, following Stuart Kauffman, relies on the importance of story. Hegel tells us that all stories, all narratives include a conflict between desire and the law, intention, and necessity. Scenarios provide a way for communities to frame their intentions. They thereby effect “downward causality” on the present in order to project the present toward a preferred future. In fulfilling the promise of this new kind of science, scenario planning breaks with positivistic science, but without falling into a postmodern nihilism. Without setting out to do so, the discipline of scenario planning introduces us to a new epistemology, a new way of knowing the truth. Drawing on pragmatism, Wittgenstein, and Richard Rorty, this article reaches the conclusion that, for scenario planners, the future replaces objectivity as the horizon for justification. What is true? We'll see.
A Thousand Futures: A Search for Scenario Space.
OCAD University Open Research Repository, 2020
Although both science fiction and professional foresight work both are engaged with what the future might look like, they operate mostly independently from one another. A literature search reveals the characteristics of written science fiction and foresight, seeking ways these practices could be successfully combined. Concepts are explored through the example of agriculture and agricultural technology as well as technologies for constructing narrative semantics. Approaches are outlined for generating foresight scenarios and for creating a semantic tagging system for generating a semantic space for scenarios using intellectual technologies from science fiction.
Scenarios and counterfactuals as modal narratives
Futures, 2009
Scenarios and counterfactuals are two types of modal narrative. Modal narratives concern themselves with contingency and determinism: with questions of possibility and necessity. While scenarios are future-oriented, focused on what might yet be, counterfactuals are narratives of what might have been. Despite this fundamental temporal difference, consideration of the theoretical and philosophical underpinnings of modal narratives as a genre enables us to elucidate some critical issues concerning scenarios as a foresight methodology. In particular, the scenario literature has tended to avoid extended discussion of its implicit assumptions concerning causation, necessity, possibility and contingency. By confronting the modal nature of foresight methodologies more explicitly, the futures community may begin to lay more secure philosophical foundations for their deployment.