Thailand in Sino-US Rivalry at the Crossroads of the Thai Internal Conflict (original) (raw)

“America, the Great Friend”? Reanalyzing THAILAND-U.S. Relations in the 21ST Century

Thailand and the United States have mutually benefited from 200 years of relations (since 1818) that strengthened during the Cold War and Vietnam War eras through their long-term alliance, security cooperation and economic engagement, and eventual U.S. assistance to Thailand’s democratization. Though the United States was once tolerant of Thailand’s frequent coups d’état, there is a common perception that relations were significantly damaged after the military-led coups in September 2006 and May 2014. U.S. criticism led Thai state leaders to rebuke U.S. interference in Thai politics and question whether the U.S. remains a true ally and friend. This thesis questions these assumptions by systemically assessing and analyzing military, economic, and diplomatic sectors of the relationship from 2001 to 2019. It examines the effects of the coups through systematic analysis of qualitative and quantitative data to understand how these coups and other events impacted the relationship. The mai...

Tipping the Balance in Southeast Asia? Thailand, the United States and China

Professor John Blaxland and Dr Greg Raymond’s Centre of Gravity paper breaks new ground in our understanding of Thai strategic and military culture and how Thai security elites view the United States, China, and the shifting geopolitical landscape in Asia. This analysis provides a roadmap to scholars seeking to understand shifting Thai policies and for policymakers seeking to maintain a strong footing for the U.S.-Thailand alliance during a time of strategic flux. This paper is co-badged with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington D.C, USA. It was funded by a grant from the Minerva Research Institute.

TITLE: Understanding Thailand's Political Crisis and its effects on its External Relations

The political crisis in Thailand from the year 2006 onwards has been seriously divided by two political ideas: Pro-Liberal Democracy and Pro Thai style Democracy. This paper aims to understand the period of political instability of a country specifically, the political crisis of Thailand and to know its effects on its international relations. The purpose of this study is for the readers to be enlightened especially the professionals whose field covers international relations studies that may result to an improvement and added knowledge that can help for future references of studies.

Reluctant Partnership: Thailand’s Diplomacy in the Changing Regional Order

2020

The increased power of the US and the rise of China in Southeast Asia have triggered heightened economic and political assistance to the region. While China mainly focuses on infrastructure development, the US emphasises social and environmental assistance. Additionally, mega-regional development schemes have been initiated by China, Japan, and the US, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. Both the BRI and FOIP are rearranging the regional economic and political configuration by transforming the physical and structural relations between regional countries, China, Japan, and the US. Thailand’s diplomacy has been described as “bamboo diplomacy” because it “bends with the wind”. Such metaphoric description represents how Thailand, as a relatively small state, exercises its power within the international system. Located in the middle of mainland Southeast Asia, Thailand is now facing another challenge – to position itself as a regional hub. This means that Thailand is in need of both infrastructure development and financial assistance. In this regard, China seems to be a good source. Yet, if Thailand deepens its relations with China, how can it balance its relations with the US? This dilemma establishes Thailand as a “reluctant partner” for both China and the US. This paper aims to study how Thailand’s diplomatic relations with Japan, China, and the US have changed, and how Thailand should balance these power dynamics while making the most of the rivalry between these superpowers in Southeast Asia.

Thai foreign policy's continuities and changes: A comparative analysis from 2008-2014

Thailand in Comparative Perspective International Symposium 2016 (https://www.sydney.edu.au/content/dam/corporate/documents/sydney-southeast-asia-centre/sseac-thailand-in-comparative-perspective-2016-program.pdf), 2016

The research examines recent developments and policy-making process of Thailand to clarify the patterns of continuities and changes in Thai foreign policy and how they affect Thai policy approach in an effort to advance our understanding of state's foreign policy, particularly those of non-Western country, in our world still characterized by systemic anarchy, complex interdependence and unpredictable social-constructed changes. Conventional wisdom describes the history of Thai (city-) state evident of real politik and elitism, while the end of history belief supports claims on an increasing pluralism. The systemic changes politically after the Vietnam War and economically after the spicy Tom Yum Kung 2 crisis, further inspired by Thaksin's domestic and regional aspiration, suggests others about Thailand's emerging activism. However, Thailand's diplomatic and political landscape since 2008 indicates that none of these policy approaches can dominate Thai foreign policy. This research will, thus, look through the lenses of two-level game theory and constructivism to argue that Thai foreign policy is characterized by its (re-)definition as a middle power struggling internationally between the great powers' competition, domestically between elitism forged by entrenched values and pluralism influenced by democratization process. Incremental changes occur mostly from inside the circle of policy making while major changes are caused by structural shifts at international level, power leverage change at national level and the degree of leaders' activism at individual level. Certain political values play key roles in determining such changes. Keywords: Thai foreign policy, constructivist policy analysis, Thai national identity, Thai political values, elitism and pluralism.

Thailand's Indo-Pacific Adrift? A Reluctant Realignment with the United States and China

Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs , 2024

China's assertive rise triggers existential and discursive anxieties in the Indo-Pacific since 2017. The US rebalances, using strategies like institutional balancing (minilateralism) and discursive balancing (free and open Indo-Pacific). Thailand, a long-time US ally, hesitates to counterbalance China. Post-2014 coup, Thailand's military junta aligned with China due to necessity, persisting post-2019 elections. This article reevaluates Thai foreign policy under Prayut Chan-ocha, suggesting default hedging, not strategic hedging. Various agencies pursue diplomacy without a coherent strategy. The article unfolds in three parts. First, it examines Thailand's reluctance to embrace the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, stemming from differing threat perceptions and bureaucratic politics. It then discusses Thailand's absence of a comprehensive Indo-Pacific narrative and its default hedging via military, economic, and ideational aspects. The article concludes by exploring the post-Prayut era's impact on Thai foreign policy.

Thailand’s Foreign Policy: Hedging by Default?

RSIS Commentary, 2023

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s foreign policy, unlike those of previous Thai governments, is not seen to be bending with the wind, but rather as “hedging by default”. China’s economic attractiveness, US ambivalence towards the region, and Russia’s war on Ukraine have rendered Thailand’s long-established strategic posture untenable. To navigate the changing international circumstances, Thailand should adopt a smarter strategy of “leading-from-the-middle”.

The Implications of the 2019 Thailand Election for the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Taiwan Strategists, 2019

In March 2019, Thailand held its first effective election in eight years and elected the Palang Pracharat Party and General Prayuth Chan-ocha into office again. Noting strategic competition between the United States and China in Southeast Asia since 2008, the outcome of the Thai election holds great implications for great power relations and the Asia-Pacific region. Reviewing the election and the situation in Southeast Asia, this article claims that Thailand, caught between Washington's and Beijing's efforts to strengthen relations, will seek to adopt a balancing strategy that keeps both powers at equal distance while pursuing its own national interests. The author remains reserved over the development of Thai-US relations and more optimistic over Thai-Chinese relations. The article consists of five parts: part one reviews the recent Thai election; part two discusses the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and its implications for Thailand; parts three and four consider Thailand's relations with China and Taiwan respectively; and part five concludes with some thoughts on the future of international relations in the Asia Pacific.