Assessment of emergy indices dynamics on agricultural production of Mogi-Guaçu and Pardo watershed, Brazil (original) (raw)

Nowadays, most of agricultural production uses conventional management that depends on chemical industry's products, fossil fuels and minerals. Besides that, specifically in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, sugarcane crops is expanding its area on others crops and natural vegetation. To avoid that the dependence of non-renewable resources by agricultural systems be larger than the biological capacity to supply them and, that the land use dynamics do not result in a monoculture, it is urgent to elaborate efficient public policies that aim sustainable development; but for that purpose, there is a need of diagnosis and scenarios studies. In this sense, Emergy Accounting has been used as powerful tool. The main objective of this work is to assess the emergy indices dynamics of Mogi-Guaçu and Pardo watershed, Brazil, considering the natural vegetation and agricultural land use. The simulation procedure covers a time period from 1988 to 2033, and a scenario approach was used from 2002 to 2033. The Land Use Cover Change (LUCC), submodel of the Multi-scale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) was elaborated, calibrated, validated and ran in the Simile software.

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