MACROECONOMIC FACTORS OF SMES FAILURES IN ROMANIA IN THE PERIOD 2008-2013 (original) (raw)

This paper investigates the relationship between the macroeconomic determinants and the observed SMEs' failures for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL). We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013 in order to establish the impact of the fiscal and monetary policy adopted by the Romanian government in times of financial crisis on the SME sector. The corporate failure rate is an endogenous variable in a linear function model with two exogenous macroeconomic variables such as the consumer price index and the loans ratio to GDP and the lags of the dependent variable. The main finding is that the variance of the SMEs' insolvency rate variable is positively correlated with the variance of CPI two months ago and with the variances of the loans rate one month ago, two months ago and four months ago and negatively correlated with the variance of the loans rate three months ago.