Estimation of survival rate and extinction probability for stage-structured populations with overlapping life stages (original) (raw)
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Population model of an endangered amphibian: implications for conservation management
Endangered Species Research
Amphibian populations are declining worldwide, but for many taxa, robust estimates of demographic parameters to assess population state or trends are scarce or absent. We provide robust estimates of adult apparent survival of the endemic Mallorcan midwife toad Alytes muletensis using individual capture-recapture data collected over 4 yr in a 60 m 2 cistern. Moreover, we combined the vital rates into a stage-structured population model to estimate the ex pected longterm growth rate of the population. Apparent survival estimates of males and females were similar (0.737 ± 0.042 and 0.726 ± 0.045, respectively) indicating that the egg-carrying behavior of males, typical of this species, does not reduce its survival probability. We found evidence of a low local survival of juveniles compared with adults, most likely due to permanent dispersal. Adult population size estimation provided higher tadpole:adult ratios than previously reported for this endangered species, suggesting an overestimation of the previous adult population size. Model projections suggested a stable population, since λ, the expected asymptotic growth rate of the population, was close to 1.00.
Identifying the Minimal Demographic Unit for Monitoring Pond‐Breeding Amphibians
Ecological Applications, 2004
Amphibians are declining globally, and efforts are underway to establish long‐term programs to monitor population trends. Because researchers are constrained to sampling a small subset of populations that occur across a landscape, monitoring units should be selected that maximize the statistical independence of population responses to environmental stressors. Breeding sites of pond‐breeding amphibians are often clustered locally, and habitat switching between neighboring ponds could significantly compromise both demographic and statistical independence. This raises a fundamental issue of whether the basic monitoring unit for trend analysis should be an individual pond or a cluster of local ponds. To help resolve the degree of demographic independence within a cluster of local ponds, we conducted a spatial‐scale analysis of breeding‐population synchrony of the wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) in four national parks in Kentucky, North Carolina, a...
The ecology of extinction: population fluctuation and decline in amphibians
Even among widespread species with high reproductive potentials and significant dispersal abilities, the probability of extinctions should be correlated both with population size variance and with the extent of population isolation. To address how variation in demographic characteristics and habitat requirements may reflect on the comparative risk of species decline, I examined 617 time series of population census data derived from 89 amphibian species using the normalized estimate of the realized rate of increase, ÁN, and its variance. Amphibians are demonstrably in general decline and exhibit a great range of dispersal abilities, demographic characteristics, and population sizes. I compared species according to life-history characteristics and habitat use. Among the populations examined, census declines outnumbered increases yet the average magnitudes for both declines and increases were not demonstrably different, substantiating findings of amphibian decline. This gives no support for the idea that amphibian population sizes are dictated by regimes featuring relatively rare years of high recruitment offset by intervening years of gradual decline such that declines may outnumber increases without negative effect. For any given population size, those populations living in large streams or in ponds had significantly higher variance than did populations of completely terrestrial or other stream-dwelling amphibians. This could not be related to life-history complexity as all the stream-breeding species examined have larvae and all of the wholly terrestrial species have direct development without a larval stage. Variance in ÁN was highest amongst the smallest populations in each comparison group. Estimated local extinction rates averaged 3.1% among pond-breeding frogs, 2.2% for pond-breeding salamanders, and negligible for both stream-breeding and terrestrial direct-developing species. Recoveries slightly exceeded extinctions among European pond-breeding frogs but not among North American pond-breeding frogs. Less common species had greater negative disparities between extinctions and recoveries. Species with highly fluctuating populations and high frequencies of local extinctions living in changeable environments, such pond-and torrent-breeding amphibians, may be especially susceptible to curtailment of dispersal and restriction of habitat. #
Sustained demographic studies are essential for early detection of species decline in time for effective management response. A paucity of such background data hindered the potential for successful conservation during the global amphibian decline and remains problematic today. The current study analysed 6 years of mark-recapture data to determine the vital demographic rates in three habitat precincts of the threatened frog, Litoria aurea (Hylidae) and to understand the underlying causes of variability in population size. Variability in population size of L. aurea was similar to many pond-breeding species; however this level of fluctuation is rare among threatened amphibians. Highly variable populations are at greater risk of local extinction and the low level of connectivity between L. aurea populations means they are at a greater risk of further decline due to stochastic extinction events and incapacity to recolonize distant habitat. We recommend that management of this species should encourage recolonization through creation of habitat corridors and reintroduction of L. aurea to areas where stochastic extinction events are suspected.
2011
Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians.
Canadian Journal of Zoology
Worldwide amphibian declines highlight the need for programs that monitor species presence and track population trends. We sampled larval amphibians with a box trap at 3-week intervals for 23 months in eight wetlands, and concurrently trapped adults and juveniles with drift fences, to examine spatiotemporal patterns of tadpole occurrence; explore relationships between breeding effort, tadpole abundance, and recruitment; and compare the efficacy of both methods in detecting species presence and reproductive outcome. Intermittent detection of species within and among wetlands suggested high mortality, followed by deposition of new eggs and tadpole cohorts. Breeding effort, tadpole abundance, and juvenile recruitment were generally not correlated. The reasons for this may include differential bias in detecting species or life stages between methods and high incidence of egg or tadpole mortality. Drift fences detected more species than box traps, but each provided insights regarding amp...
Sex ratio of breeding Common toads (Bufo bufo) – influence of survival and skipped breeding
Amphibia-Reptilia, 2010
Anuran sex ratio at breeding sites is typically male biased. Such sex ratios may be due to poor female survival, to females not breeding as frequently as males and/or to males becoming sexually mature earlier than females. In the present study, the first two factors are analyzed in a common toad (Bufo bufo) population in southern Sweden. Toads were captured, marked and recaptured at the breeding site during 5 years. Within season capture patterns were analyzed using the Jolly-Seber model and among-year captures using the Closed robust design model. Population estimates of males and females yielded an among year variation in breeding population sex ratio, ranging from 16% to 34% females. On average, 41% (proportion adult alive but not breeding) of the females skipped breeding seasons, whereas the corresponding estimate for males was less than 5%. Yearly survival averaged 42% for adult female and 63% for adult male toads. First year adult males and females had a lower survival rate than older toads. Our results demonstrate that both a female biased mortality rate and a higher proportion of skipped breeding in females contribute to the observed male biased sex ratio. However, a deterministic model suggests other factors may also be involved to obtain this degree of male biased sex ratio, the most likely being that females mature at a later age than male toads.