[The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come from and How Will It End?]: Comment (original) (raw)

Japan's Banking Crisis: Who has the Most to Lose?

2003

Japan has experienced a deep and prolonged banking crisis in the 1990s. In this paper we attempt to identify the characteristics of companies which have the most to lose from the banks' malaise. Using stock price data, we calculate abnormal returns of non-financial companies around significant dates in the history of the banking crisis, starting in 1995. The events we study include various government actions to address the crisis, downgrading of banks by international rating agencies, and bank mergers. We find that not all companies are equally sensitive to events in the banking sector. The most affected are small companies, with low profits, in low-tech sectors, with high leverage and limited access to bond markets. These findings are consistent with macroeconomic "credit crunch" theories according to which small companies with limited reputation are the most affected when banks reduce lending. Our results are also in line with theories suggesting that bank debt is n...

Reform of the Japanese banking system

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2005

Japan has experienced a decade-long economic stagnation with a distressed banking sector in the 1990s. The absence of a credit culture to rigorously assess and price credit risks of borrowers, aggravated by weak prudential and supervisory frameworks, in the 1980s, the collapse of the asset price bubble in the early 1990s, and the lack of decisive, comprehensive strategy to address the banking sector problem at an early stage were largely responsible for the emergence of banking sector problems. All of these allowed a systemic banking crisis to emerge in 1997-98 and a large output loss during 1998-2002. The crisis ultimately prompted the government to take a more aggressive policy to tackle the problem. Considerable progress has been made since then on banking sector stabilization, restructuring, and consolidation. The regulatory and supervisory framework has been strengthened in a way consistent with an increasingly market-oriented, globalized environment. As a result, the worst is over in the Japanese banking system, setting the stage for sustained economic recovery. Though bank capital may still be inadequate, safety nets are in place, and credit allocation has been made more rational. Remaining risks are limited to regional and smaller institutions that are vulnerable to weak, local economic conditions and hikes of the long-term interest rate.

The Japanese banking crisis and economic growth: Theoretical and empirical implications of deposit guarantees and weak financial regulation

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2003

An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation is used to show how government policies towards the financial sector can lead to banking crises and persistent growth slumps. The model shows how government deposit guarantees and regulatory forbearance can lead to permanent declines in the growth rate of the economy. The effects of inadequate prudential supervision on asset price dynamics under perfect foresight are also derived in the model. The policies that are used in the analysis are based on essential features of Japanese financial regulation. The implications of the model are compared to the experience of the Japanese economy and financial system during the 1990s. We find that the dynamics predicted by our model are generally consistent with the recent behavior of economic aggregates, asset prices and the banking system for Japan. A policy implication of the model is that the impact on future economic growth depends upon the length of time the government fails to enforce loan-loss reserving by banks. Note: This is a substantial revision of our earlier paper entitled, ''Financial Intermediation, Agency and Collateral and the Dynamics of Banking Crises: Theory and Evidence for the Japanese Banking Crisis,'' presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference on ''Financial Issues in the Pacific Basin Region,'' September 26-27.

On the Real Effects of Bank Bailouts: Micro Evidence from Japan

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013

Exploiting the Japanese banking crisis as a laboratory, we provide firm-level evidence on the real effects of bank bailouts. Government recapitalizations result in positive abnormal returns for the clients of recapitalized banks. After recapitalizations, banks extend larger loans to their clients and some firms increase investment, but do not create more jobs than comparable firms. Most importantly, recapitalizations allow banks to extend larger loans to low and high quality firms alike, and low quality firms experience higher abnormal returns than other firms. Interestingly, recapitalizations by private investors have similar effects. Moreover, bank mergers engineered to enhance bank stability appear to hurt the borrowers of the sounder banks involved in the mergers.

Sectoral Credit Shifts in Japan: Causes and Consequences of Their Decline in the 1990s

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

In this paper, we construct a simple measure of sectoral credit shifts, defined as the dispersion of growth rates of bank loans across sectors, and investigate what effects they had on Japan's economy and what accounted for their development. We find that (i) during the 1990s, the amount of sectoral credit shifts declined significantly, which was responsible for-in conjunction with effects from falls in land prices and aggregate outstanding loans-the stagnated real growth; and (ii) the decline in the credit shifts in the 1990s reflected weakened financial intermediation rather than a decrease in the size of sectoral shocks. These results are consistent with the view that financial intermediation was weakened by the exacerbated nonperforming loan problems after the collapse of the asset price bubble, and thus prevented credits from shifting to relatively efficient sectors. JEL Classification Number: E51, G21, O16

What happened to Japanese banks?

Monetary and Economic Studies, 2001

This paper argues that the slow and incomplete deregulation of the financial system in the 1980s was the most important factor behind the Japanese banking troubles in the 1990s. The regression analysis of Japanese banks shows that the cross-sectional variation of bad loans ratios is best explained by the variation in the growth of loans to the real estate industry. The variation of growth of real estate lending, in turn, is explained by the varied experience of losing existing customers to capital markets. The rapid appreciation of land prices in the late 1980s also fueled the growth of real estate lending.

The Demise of Bank-Centered Economy and Increasing Roles of Credit Ratings in Japan

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006

table is based on financial statement disclosure requirements. The total amount of bad loan that the entire deposit-taking financial institutions held has been disclosed since September 1995. b. Voluntary disclosure has existed since September 1995. However, the figures were not included in the official financial statements for that year.

Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004

T he recent Japanese economic experience has been dismal. Growth has collapsed, deflation has taken hold and the financial system is in shambles. We begin our story by documenting the macroeconomic troubles that appear to have triggered the collapse of Japan's financial sector. We argue, however, that the macroeconomic factors alone are not likely to explain the full extent of the problems in the Japanese financial system. We then turn to the sector-specific factors that are facing the Japanese banks, insurance companies and government financial institutions, which together constitute roughly three-quarters of the financial system. Finally, we provide estimates of the size of the losses that have been accumulated and review the steps necessary to resolve the problems promptly so that the losses stop growing.