Summer climate and mortality in Vienna – a human-biometeorological approach of heat-related mortality during the heat waves in 2003 (original) (raw)
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Human biometeorological evaluation of heat-related mortality in Vienna
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2011
This paper investigates whether there is any association between the daily mortality for the wider region of Athens, Greece and the thermal conditions, for the 10year period 1992-2001. The daily mortality datasets were acquired from the Hellenic Statistical Service and the daily meteorological datasets, concerning daily maximum and minimum air temperature, from the Hellinikon/Athens meteorological station, established at the headquarters of the Greek Meteorological Service. Besides, the daily values of the thermal indices Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were evaluated in order to interpret the grade of physiological stress. The first step was the application of Pearson's χ 2 test to the compiled contingency tables, resulting in that the probability of independence is zero (p=0.000); namely, mortality is in close relation to the air temperature and PET/ UTCI. Furthermore, the findings extracted by the generalized linear models showed that, statistically significant relationships (p<0.01) between air temperature, PET, UTCI and mortality exist on the same day. More concretely, on one hand during the cold period (October-March), a 10°C decrease in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 13%, 15%, 2%, 7% and 6% of the probability having a death, respectively. On the other hand, during the warm period (April-September), a 10°C increase in daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, temperature range, PET and UTCI is related with an increase 3%, 1%, 10%, 3% and 5% of the probability having a death, respectively. Taking into consideration the time lag effect of the examined parameters on mortality, it was found that significant effects of 3-day lag during the cold period appears against 1-day lag during the warm period. In spite of the general aspect that cold conditions seem to be favourable factors for daily mortality, the air temperature and PET/UTCI exceedances over specific thresholds depending on the distribution reveal that, very hot conditions are risk factors for the daily mortality.
Applications of a universal thermal index: physiological equivalent temperature
International Journal of Biometeorology, 1999
The physiological equivalent temperature, PET, is a thermal index derived from the human energy balance. It is well suited to the evaluation of the thermal component of different climates. As well as having a detailed physiological basis, PET is preferable to other thermal indexes like the predicted mean vote because of its unit (°C), which makes results more comprehensible to urban or regional planners, for example, who are not so familiar with modern human-biometeorological terminology. PET results can be presented graphically or as bioclimatic maps. Graphs mostly display the temporal behaviour of PET, whereas spatial distribution is specified in bioclimatic maps. In this article, some applications of PET are discussed. They relate to the evaluation of the urban heat island in cities in both temperate climates and warm climates at high altitude. The thermal component of the microclimate in the trunk space of a deciduous forest is also evaluated by PET. As an example of the spatial distribution of PET, a bioclimatic map for Greece in July (Mediterranean climate) is presented.
Modelling in Human Biometeorology: Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Thermal Indices
Environmental Sciences Proceedings
The issue of the quantification of thermal comfort or heat stress on humans is in vogue nowadays. This is evident for indices, which are trying to quantify these effects. Most known indices are PET, modified PET, SET*, PT and UTCI. All thermal indices require the same thermo-physiological and meteorological parameters. Air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and short and long wave radiation fluxes in terms of mean radiant temperature are the required meteorological parameters. For human thermo-physiology, information about heat production and clothing are required. The meteorological parameters have to be available in appropriate spatial and temporal scales depending on the target and the specific issues demanded. The appropriate spatial and temporal resolution data cannot only be delivered by measurement stations. Meso and micro scale models, which compute meteorological parameter and thermal indices, can be helpful in the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in ...
Assessment of human bioclimate based on thermal response
To assess the thermal component of human climate, the adequacy of two body-environment energy balance models is tested. Requirements are that these models should include the full range of atmospheric variables using a system which embraces both the attributes of those exposed and the functional attributes of the environment. They should also account for thermal stress on the body as well as the feedback thermophysiological responses as a result of that stress, and produce a unitary thermal index. Based on detailed field assessment, the study provides an interpretation of index values in terms of thermal sensation and pleasantness using standardised verbal scales. Detailed statistical analysis shows that the associations between index values and thermal sensation votes are strong giving correlation coefficients in the order of 0.86 which is considerably larger than those from comparable results reported in the literature. Optimal thermal conditions for sedentary activity appear to be located in the zone of vasomotor regulation against heat, subjectly interpreted as slightly warm, rather than precisely at the point of minimum heat stress. Sensitivity of model output and thermal sensation are greater in the zone of heat stress than in the zone of cold stress.
Seasonal and spatial distribution of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) index in Hungary
Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian …, 2009
The aim of this study is to present a thermal human bioclimate analysis of Hungary by means of mapping, useing multiple linear regressions. The present study links geographical information with climatological data in order to generate a spatial distribution of PET values of a region. The distribution of average PET values of seasons are drawn at 1 km resolution. Meteorological data used to draw the maps was made with the help of data collation program at the Climatic Research Unit (University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK). The calculation of PET is performed with the aid of the RayMan model, which calculates the measures of the thermal human bioclimate. The calculated PET values show that the difference between the highest and lowest temperature areas is between 7-11 ºC. This means two comfort level differences generally. The winter is an exception, when the whole country can be rated to the same physiological stress level. 222 responses on the human body. Several models and indices were created in the last decades to describe this mechanism and quantify thermo-physiological phenomenon occurring in the human body (VDI, 1998).
Changes in heat related mortality in Vienna based on regional climate models
urbanclimate.net
The development of mortality due to heat stress in Vienna was assesses by using two regional climate models in the emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described using the human-biometeorological index PET. Two approaches were applied, to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011-2040 no significant changes compared to 1971-2000 were found. In the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129 % until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41° C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notably. This encourages the need for additional adaptation measurements.
Selection of Appropriate Thermal Indices for Applications in Human Biometeorological Studies
Atmosphere
Application of thermal indices has become very popular over the last three decades. It is mostly aimed at urban areas and is also used in weather forecasting, especially for heat health warning systems. Recent studies also show the relevance of thermal indices and their justification for thermal perception. Only twelve out of 165 indices of human thermal perception are classified to be principally suitable for the human biometeorological evaluation of climate for urban and regional planning: this requests that the thermal indices provide an equivalent air temperature of an isothermal reference with minor wind velocity. Furthermore, thermal indices must be traceable to complete human energy budget models consisting of both a controlled passive system (heat transfer between body and environment) and a controlling active system, which provides a positive feedback on temperature deviations from neutral conditions of the body core and skin as it is the case in nature. Seven out of the tw...
IMedPub Journals, 2020
The human demographic modelling is to show the levels of confidence between threshold temperature at the time of diagnosis and expected temperature to infer if there may be spontaneous metabolic heat production relative to atmospheric temperature indices. These were to show a pathway to grades of cold spells or heat waves in affected individuals and thermal sensitivity of the physiological temperature in human subjects. Climate change dynamics are observed through the study of the weather variables which include; the surface and ambient temperatures,wind speed, relative humidity and dew points which may have positive or negative effects on human and environment. The impacts of changing climate have been found to affect human health through trails of varying complexity of these factors of the weather system. Human exposure to weather extremes; heat waves, cold spells and increases in other forms of extreme weather events give rise to ailments or disease factors such as heat stroke and influenza in individuals. Inclusively, the body unusual rising temperatures (hyperthermia) or body unusual low temperature (hypothermia) is an indication from infections with biotic factors (viral and bacterial), parasite and other air pollutant resulting from climate changes. This study has taken dare interest in observing the intense equilibrium between the factors of the weather systems and normal human body metabolism as to continue to maintain core (internal) temperature around (37 ± 1)°C for healthy human body.