Key Elements of Global Inflation (original) (raw)
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Key Elements of Global Inflation 1
2010
Against the background of large fluctuations in world commodity prices and global growth, combined with ongoing structural changes relating to globalisation, this paper examines some of the key factors affecting global inflation. The paper investigates the effects of shocks affecting relative prices and structural changes on global inflation by: estimating a global vector autoregression (GVAR) to examine how oil price shocks feed through to core and headline inflation; calculating the impact of increased imports from low-cost countries on manufacturing import prices; and estimating Phillips curves in order to shed light on whether the inflationary process in OECD countries has changed over time, particularly with respect to the roles of import prices, unit labour costs and the output gap. Overall, the paper finds that there seem to be various significant pressures on global trade prices and labour markets associated with structural factors. These are possibly partly due to globalisa...
Some Preliminary Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends on the volume of commodity imports while the impact of non-commodity import price inflation is independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. Second, focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (i) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to the output gap.
Globalisation, import prices and inflation dynamics
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2008
In this paper we model the role of open-economy effects within a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) via the inclusion of intermediate imports in firms' production technology. Using this framework we provide evidence on two questions: first, does the inclusion of import prices help explain postwar inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom, United States and Japan; and second, has the influence of import prices in firms' costs become greater over the more recent period since the mid-1980s. Overall, our results suggest that import prices do help explain movements in inflation; in particular, NKPC models that allow for import prices to enter into firms' costs outperform closed-economy models in sample. However, our results suggest that the influence of import prices has generally remained constant across our sample period, with perhaps only the United Kingdom providing some evidence that import prices have become more important in firms' marginal costs.
Working Paper No . 359 Globalisation , import prices and inflation dynamics
2008
In this paper we model the role of open-economy effects within a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) via the inclusion of intermediate imports in firms’ production technology. Using this framework we provide evidence on two questions: first, does the inclusion of import prices help explain post-war inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom, United States and Japan; and second, has the influence of import prices in firms’ costs become greater over the more recent period since the mid-1980s. Overall, our results suggest that import prices do help explain movements in inflation; in particular, NKPC models that allow for import prices to enter into firms’ costs outperform closed-economy models in sample. However, our results suggest that the influence of import prices has generally remained constant across our sample period, with perhaps only the United Kingdom providing some evidence that import prices have become more important in firms’ marginal costs.
Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis*
International Finance, 2010
This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Toward that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for that hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries. However, even though we find no evidence that globalization is affecting the parameters of the inflation process, globalization may be helping to stabilize real GDP and hence inflation. Over time, the volatility of real GDP growth has declined by more than the volatility of domestic demand, suggesting that net exports increasingly are acting to buffer output from fluctuations in domestic demand.
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010
1 We would like to thank Sandrine Corvoisier for excellent research assistance and an anonymous referee, Michel Aglietta, Filippo Altissimo, OECD, the IMF and the Bank of Canada for useful comments on this research project. We are very grateful to Daniel Levy for detailed and constructive comments on the draft.
The impact of global economies on US inflation: A test of the Phillips curve
Journal of Economics and Finance
Understanding the relationship between employment and inflation is of great interest to policymakers and market participants. This paper introduces a new global inflation measure based on the principal component analysis (PCA) of the inflation rates of major US trade partners. We find that US domestic inflation correlates strongly with global inflation in the short-and long term. Moreover, global inflation leads the US inflation and accounts for 80% of the price discovery process. Additionally, we show that the Phillips curve equation improves in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting of US inflation rates by incorporating our spill-over-based global inflation (SGI) measure. Also, the utilization of the SGI in the Phillips equation increases the responsivity of the inflation rate data to the unemployment gap by 37%. In summary, the present results support the hypothesis that global inflation is a crucial determinant of domestic (US) inflation. The paper's main findings draw vital policy implications that emphasize the need for stronger cooperation among central banks to cope with the spill-over effect of global inflations on domestic economies.
Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation
2007
This paper presents evidence of an important decline during recent decades in the pass-through from the price of oil to the general price level. We find that this decline is a generalized fact for a large set of countries. After documenting correlations between the consumer price index and oil prices, we use two estimation strategies in an attempt to properly identify the effect of oil shocks on inflation. First, we estimate the traditional Phillips curve augmented to include oil and test for structural breaks in 34 countries. This methodology shows a fall in the average estimated pass-through for industrial economies and, to a lesser degree, for emerging economies. Second, we estimate rolling vector autoregressions for a subsample of countries for which we have sufficient data. We derive impulse response functions of inflation to oil shocks and interpret the integrals as estimates of pass-through. We find that the effect of oil shocks on inflation has weakened for most of the 12 countries in the sample. Among the factors that might help to explain this decline, we argue that the most important are a reduction in the oil intensity of economies around the world, a reduction in the exchange rate pass-through, a more favorable inflation environment, and the fact that the current oil price shock is largely the result of strong world demand. These factors help to explain not only why the current shock has had limited inflationary effects, but also why it has had limited consequences for output.
Globalization and Inflation, 2023
The Turkish economy, particularly during and after the 1990s, has faced with greater levels of inflation, which began to decline following the 2001 banking crisis due to major shift in policymaking within Turkey's political and economic framework. When the global economy is considered, however, substantial globalization has transpired, resulting in a worldwide disinflation trend. Therefore, the question of "How did the global disinflationary period affect the overall performance of Turkey's price stability policy?" has gained prominence as a pertinent one. The primary objective of this article is to examine the impact of globalization on inflation in Turkey within this paradigm. In addition to analyzing volatile patterns in Turkish inflation from 2003 to 2020, the relevance of domestic and international factors will be empirically investigated through structural VAR analysis. Our findings reveal that, domestic prices are explicitly correlated with the globalization through global demand circumstances, imported input costs and foreign currency shifts all of which contribute significantly to price fluxes. Nevertheless, it is imperative to stress that inflation inertia is a crucial aspect of measuring inflation.