Long term rainfall trend over meteorological sub divisions and districts of India (original) (raw)
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2021
1Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India 2Former Associate Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India 3U.G. Student, Dept. of Civil Engineering, PESCE, Mandya, Karnataka, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------Abstract Climatic variability particularly rainfall and temperature has received a greater attention throughout the world. Climate change and its variability in the climatic parameters may adversely affect the agriculture sector and water resources of agrarian country like India. The research on change of rainfall, occurrence and its allocation are the most significant way for sustainable water resource management and food security. Hence an understanding of rainfall patterns in the changing environment will help in better decision making and improving the adopting of the communities to sustain the extr...
Statistical study on trend analysis of rainfall distribution in southern Odisha
2021
The impact of world global climate change on agriculture has been increasingly realized during previous few decades. The importance of rainfall has been found to be significantly changed over the last three decades particularly in Southern Odisha, India. The present study aims to identify the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall and its magnitude in Southern Odisha. During this study, the mean monthly and seasonal rainfall this districts are analysed to determine the trend and its magnitude for the quantity of 1982-2014. The logical thinking is completed using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. The study showed a giant declining rainfall trend particularly within the month of February and November with p value of 0.45 and 0.48 respectively. An increasing trend of Rainfall with p value 0.34 within the month of September. The analysis results showed wide variations during all the seasons. The increasing trend of rainfall is found to be dominant during south-west monsoon season ...
IRJET, 2021
Climatic variability particularly rainfall and temperature has received a greater attention throughout the world. Climate change and its variability in the climatic parameters may adversely affect the agriculture sector and water resources of agrarian country like India. The research on change of rainfall, occurrence and its allocation are the most significant way for sustainable water resource management and food security. Hence an understanding of rainfall patterns in the changing environment will help in better decision making and improving the adopting of the communities to sustain the extreme weather. The study is aimed at investigating Monotonic trends at local scale levels for different seasons, as the climate change is more pronounced at the local scale. In this study, trend analysis has been carried out for Mandya district, Karnataka by considering 21 stations spread across the district for a period 1991-2000. Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were employed to detect the trend and trend magnitude respectively at a significance level of 5%. The paper showcases that, the annual and monsoon season trend depicts no trend at a significance level of 5%. However, significant positive trends were observed at stations Akkihebbalu, Basaralu, Hanakere, Kaudle, Mandya and V C Farm during pre-monsoon season indicating special attention to be addressed during land preparation and other operations before monsoon season commences in the selected study area.
Trend analysis of rainfall pattern over the Central India during 1901–2010
Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2018
In the present study, trends of rainfall of the Central India were evaluated in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales using the Revised Mann-Kendall (RMK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and innovative trend method (ITM). For this purpose, the monthly rainfall data for 20 stations in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh (CG) states in Central India during 1901-2010 was used. The Sen's slope estimator was utilized for calculating the slope of rainfall trend line. Based on the obtained results of RMK test, there is no significant trend in the stations for the January and October months. The results also showed that for MP, two out of 15 considered stations indicate significant annual trend, while the CG has four out of five stations with significant trend. The results of applying ITM test indicated that most of the stations have decreasing trends in annual (16 stations), summer (16 stations), and monsoon (11 stations) seasons, while the winter (12 stations) and post monsoon (11 stations) seasons generally show increasing trend. Unlike the RMK, the ITM shows significant increasing trend in rainfall of November and December months. The finding of current study can be used for irrigation and water resource management purpose over the Central India.
Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall to climate variability in North-East region of India
Global warming, climate change and its consequences are major threat for the global agriculture. The agriculture in the NorthEast region of India is supposed to more in danger due to its topographic features. Agriculture in the state of Arunachal Pradesh is dependent on rainfall and variability in rainfall due to climate change is expected to threaten the food production in future. This study examines the impact of climate change on rainfall using the trend analysis technique for the four districts of Arunachal Pradesh. For this purpose temporal trends in annual and seasonal rainfall were detected using nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at 5% significance level. The daily time series rainfall data for the period 1971-2007 were analyzed statistically for each district separately. The results of Mann Kendall test showed decreasing trend in annual mean rainfall in east Siang, upper Siang and lowers Dibang valley and no trend in the west Siang district over the period of 1971-2007. In cas...
Rainfall Trend Analysis in Tehsils of Palghar District, Maharashtra State, India
IJRASET , 2021
A detailed trend analysis of monthly and annual rainfall for Tehsils of Palghar district were carried out using 22 years (1998-2019) daily rainfall data taken from Department of Agriculture, Maharashtra State. In this study, to analyse the trend, the non-parametric test (Mann-Kendall test) and Sen's slope estimator were used. For developing a functional relationship between variables, a linear trend of rainfall data for the studied area evaluated using the linear regression. The results showed that the trend analysis of monthly rainfall has a varied trend of rainfall in the rainy months in tehsil of Palghar District. The month of July significant increasing trend was observed at Jawhar (42.91 mm/year), Vikramgad (29.90 mm/year), Wada (24.06 mm/year), Talasari (31.36 mm/year), Palghar (25.299 mm/year), Mokhada (29.96 mm/year) and Dahanu (38.14 mm/year), whereas non-significant increasing trend 2.76 mm/year was observed at Vasai tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The month of June, August, September and October rainfall did not show any significant trend in tehsil of Palghar District and non significant decreasing as well as non significant increasing trend was observed in tehsil of Palghar District during 1998-2019. The result concluded that annual rainfall trend was increased in
Current Science
In this study, we analysed the variability and trends in annual as well as seasonal rainfall in the seven states of North East India for the period 1901-2020, using non-parametric tests like Mann-Kendall, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall, modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), as well as using the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The study revealed the variabilities in annual and seasonal rainfall in these seven states. In most cases, the results of all the tests were identical. However, significant differences were observed in the case of post-monsoon rainfall of Assam and Meghalaya, pre-monsoon rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Tripura, as well as in winter rainfall of Arunachal Pradesh and monsoon rainfall of Tripura. Compared to the other states of NE India and other tests, ITA detected no significant annual trend for Tripura; however, the winter season exhibited a decreasing trend. It was observed that only the MMK test could predict such changes in rainfall distribution across seasons to a certain extent at varying significance levels in comparison to the other three methods. Since these states are vulnerable to water-related disasters, this study could help policymakers arrive at valuable climatic and water resource management decisions.
Atmosphere, 2020
In this paper, the rainfall trend of the West Coast Plain and Hill Agro-Climatic Region is analyzed for 117 years (1901–2017). This region is a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot and known for one of the highest rainfall receiving regions in India. Rainfall grid dataset is used for the analysis of rainfall trends on monthly, seasonal, and decadal time scales. Modified Mann–Kendall’s test, Linear Regression, Innovative Trend Analysis, Sen’s Slope test, Weibull’s Recurrence Interval, Pearson’s Coefficient of Skewness, Consecutive Disparity Index, Kurtosis, and some other important statistical techniques are employed for trend analysis. Results indicate that the rainfall trend is significant in January, July, August, September as well as the Winter season. Among all the significant trends, January and July showed a decreasing rainfall trend. July has the highest contribution (30%) among all the obtained monotonic trend to annual rainfall and coincidentally has the highest trend m...
Statistical analysis of long-term rainfall trends in Cherrapunji, Meghalaya, India
Journal of Applied and Natural Science
Rainfall is the key climatic variable that governs the regional hydrologic cycle and availability of water resources. Rainfall trend analysis in a localized watershed can improve many aspects of water resource management not only to the catchment itself but also to some of the related other catchments. The trend analysis of monthly rainfall data over Cherrapunji of Meghalaya in India for the period 1872-2007 has been carried out in this work. While the magnitude of the trend in the time series has been determined using Sen's estimator, the significance of the trend in monthly rainfall series has been tested using Mann-Kendall test. During the time span 1872-2007, an increasing trend has been found in the monthly rainfall for the months July, October and November, and a decreasing trend has been found in the monthly rainfall for the months February to June, August and September. On the other hand, it was found that none of Mann-Kendall Z values was significant at 5% level of sign...