Going Faster in the Wrong Direction (original) (raw)
Related papers
No city on the horizon: Autonomous cars, artificial intelligence, and the absence of urbanism
McCarroll C and Cugurullo F (2022) No city on the horizon: Autonomous cars, artificial intelligence, and the absence of urbanism. Front. Sustain. Cities 4:937933. , 2022
In this perspective piece we use a case study of Phoenix (Arizona) to explore the ways in which the implementation of autonomous vehicle technology is tied to the political economy of the city. We highlight the potential urban benefits that can stem from the use of autonomous vehicles, while also bringing to the fore the necessity of governance in realizing these same benefits. By using Phoenix as a case study, we illustrate the dissonance that exists between policymakers within government and the future urban imaginaries that are used as reasons to justify Phoenix as a test ground. By viewing the position of stakeholders within industry and within government we address the individual and political gains that adoption of such technology can bring on an interstate competitive level. These dynamics of market competition, combined with a lack of proactive engagement in urban planning show that the potential urban benefits that can be brought on by the autonomous vehicle are left solely to the imagination.
What if autonomous vehicles had been introduced into cities? A counterfactual analysis
Urban Studies, 2023
The impact of autonomous vehicles on the spatial size of cities remains ambiguous, as the future is highly uncertain. This paper uses counterfactual analysis techniques to examine the effects of autonomous vehicles on urban expansion for metropolitan areas in the United States if autonomous vehicles had been introduced before. We argue that distance cost and congestion cost, which are the two components of transportation cost with different effects on urban expansion, should be addressed in autonomous vehicle research. By coupling historical data with hypothetical scenarios of introducing autonomous vehicles to cities, we find that urban expansion, rather than urban densification, would have been the dominant effect if autonomous vehicles had been introduced into cities. The finding indicates that if autonomous vehicles are widely adopted in the future, they are likely to have similar, or even larger, effects on future urban expansion than in the counterfactual past.
The Driverless City: How will AVs shape cities in the future?
2020
Automated Vehicles (AVs) are poised to become the next revolution in mobility. Marketers and engineers enthusiastically promise numerous benefits that AVs will bring in a future without human drivers: huge reductions in accidents, parking spots, congestion, even the elimination of the loathsome commute among many others. But there are as many, if not more potential ways that the AV revolution can also go wrong: worsening traffic and congestion, urban sprawl, and eroding public transit, for example. How will AVs shape cities in the future? The Driverless City is not one city: it is many. Autonomous Vehicles could be a boon or a debacle. They could even be both at the same time. An extensive literature review revealed a broad cone of possibilities: a myriad of different impacts that driverless vehicles could have on different aspects of a city. After synthesizing these into ten main areas of impact, key scenarios are expounded with supplemental foresight. This top-down approach is followed by a bottom-up research workshop where non-expert participants from the general public weighed in on the synthesis and scenarios, and expressed their own thoughts and concerns about what The Driverless City could be. Then, a group of experts helped narrow the cone of possibility into much tighter cones of probability using the Delphi research method. These forecasts and projections shine a spotlight on the key considerations that city planners, urban designers, policy makers and other decision-makers need to be taking now to promote desirable outcomes for their city and curtail undesirable ones.
The transition to autonomous cars, the redesign of cities and the future of urban sustainability
2020
Autonomous cars controlled by an artificial intelligence are increasingly being integrated in the transport portfolio of cities, with strong repercussions for the design and sustainability of the built environment. This paper sheds light on the urban transition to autonomous transport, in a threefold manner. First, we advance a theoretical framework to understand the diffusion of autonomous cars in cities, on the basis of three interconnected factors: social attitudes, technological innovation and urban politics. Second, we draw upon an in-depth survey conducted in Dublin (1,233 respondents), to provide empirical evidence of (a) the public interest in autonomous cars and the intention to use them once available, (b) the fears and concerns that individuals have regarding autonomous vehicles and (c) how people intend to employ this new form of transport. Third, we use the empirics generated via the survey as a stepping stone to discuss possible urban futures, focusing on the changes in urban design and sustainability that the transition to autonomous transport is likely to trigger. Interpreting the data through the lens of smart and neoliberal urbanism, we picture a complex urban geography characterized by shared and private autonomous vehicles, human drivers and artificial intelligences overlapping and competing for urban spaces.
Driverless Mobility: The Impact on Metropolitan Spatial Structures
2016
Diffusion of emerging technologies is following the need of solving particular problems. Each innovation produces also some undesirable consequences. Many examples from the past have shown that along with the spread of each technology their side effects are accumulating until the level they need to be solved. One of the examples is automobile, which advantages and disadvantages were already described including its spatial consequences. Automobile did not change its general way of functioning for over one century, and recent technological advances in automation may revolutionize the way it is used. Nowadays, automotive and IT industries are investing in so called: autonomous automobiles, driverless vehicles and self-driving cars, the meaning of which intertwine. Diffusion of automation in mobility is going to accelerate in the near future. The earliest implementations of new transport technologies appear in metropolises which also have the highest level of general mobility. Due to the possible significant consequences of this innovation's diffusion for metropolitan (urban and suburban) spatial structures it is important to anticipate its potential side effects to avoid negative consequences, and if necessary – to prepare to encounter them. This led to undertake research on the relationship between modern mobility innovations and metropolitan spatial structures. The article presents the assumptions and principles of scenario-based research. The example shows how diffusion of different driverless mobility solutions determine different impacts on spatial structures, and thus possible scenarios for the future.
Journal of the American Planning Association, 2019
Problem, Research Strategy, and Findings: Local government policies could impact how autonomous vehicle (AV) technology is deployed. This paper examines how municipalities are planning for AVs, identifies local characteristics that are associated with preparation, and describes what impacts bureaucrats expect from the vehicles. We review existing plans of the United States’ 25 largest cities and survey transportation and planning officials from 120 cities, representative of all municipalities with populations larger than 100,000. First, we find that few local governments have commenced planning for AVs. Second, cities with larger populations and higher population growth are more likely to be prepared. Third, while local officials are optimistic about the technology and its potential to increase safety while reducing congestion, costs, and pollution, more than a third of respondents worried about AVs increasing vehicle-miles traveled and sprawl while reducing transit ridership and local revenues. Those concerns are associated with greater willingness to implement AV regulations, but there is variation among responses depending on political ideology, per-capita government expenditures, and population density. Takeaway for Practice: Municipal governments’ future approaches to AV preparation will likely depend on characteristics of city residents and local resources. Planners can maximize policy advancement if they work with officials in other cities to develop best practices and articulate strategies that overlap with existing priorities, such as reducing pollution and single-occupancy commuting.
The hidden potential behind the city planned for cars
The impact of the car in the city goes beyond carbon emissions; the amount of land taken by roads or the fact that it is the least efficient way to move people. Additional services related to parking spaces or maintenance also requires land and become an important source of underused land within the city. Therefore, this paper will try to establish the real impact of cars within the urban tissue of the city of Quito. If the hypothesis is correct, by quantifying the real land use used by and for cars, the city can be more efficient in planning and implementing a safe, clean and affordable transportation system. Hence, as a result, any newly available land poses an opportunity to shift and adapt the urban tissue towards spaces and resources that can contribute to the sustainable development of the city and therefore improving is diversity. Keywords: Sustainable urban development; real impact of cars in the city; land use.