Demographic Change and Social Structure (original) (raw)

The uncertainties of population changes are explored through first, a critique of Malthus's Essay on Population, showing that an author with an empirical and inductive reputation relied heavily upon "stylised facts" at odds with the world around him, and a theodicy opposed to social and political reform; second, through the examination of predictions made in the mid-twentieth century that Britain's population was on a path of secular decline.

Demographic Responses and Socioeconomic Structure: Population Processes in England and Wales in the Nineteenth Century

Demography, 1983

This paper explores some theoretical and empirical aspects related to the theory of change and multiple response. The empirical analysis focuses on 600 relatively small and homogeneous geographical units of England and Wales for the period 1851-1910. These units are classified into six identifiable socioeconomic types and the analysis is made for each of them. Two interrelated issues are studied. First, a set of explanatory variables, connected either with strain or with factors relieving strain, is constructed. The effects of these explanatory variables on nuptiality, marital fertility, and migration responses are examined for each socioeconomic type, with respect to their significance, intensity, and direction. The patterns of these effects show general consistency with multiphasic response considerations for all socioeconomic types. A significant finding in this part is that migration affects very strongly the intensity of the marital fertility decline response. The second issue deals with theoretically expected patterns of interrelationships among responses in terms of substitutability and complementarity. The theoretical interrelationships are compared with the empirical for each socioeconomic type; and in general, consistency is established. Moreover, these interrelationships can be interpreted for each socioeconomic type in a way that appears to be consistent with multiphasic response considerations. An important finding in this part is that emigration and marital fertility decline are substitute responses in agricultural-based districts. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Population Growth in the UK: An Issue for Political Debate and Policy Intervention?

Politics, 2012

Although population growth in the UK is currently arousing widespread popular concern, political scientists have tended to ignore the issue while political elites are manifestly reluctant to address it. In this article I consider a number of recent reports that both recognise the challenges posed by increasing numbers and ignore or reject the possibility of including a population dimension in policy responses. In particular, the article offers a detailed analysis of a recent Royal Commission's report on the environmental impact of demographic change in order to explore the reasons for this antipathy.

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