Effects of Agricultural Policy Change on Maize Supply in Developing Countries: A Comparative Study of Kenya and Zambia (original) (raw)
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Introduction: The economic reforms in maize marketing and trade policies implemented during the 1990s have been highly controversial, and there remains a lack of solid empirical investigation on the impacts of these reforms on national food security, price stability and rural income growth. This study aims to provide a detailed evidence-based analysis of the impacts of maize marketing and trade policies on smallholder agricultural production growth, access to food by consumers, and other important national policy objectives. These insights from Zambia can hopefully move forward the continuing debate in the region on how maize marketing and trade policies should be structured in the future. Data: The study relies on the combination of nationally representative rural household survey data, maize price information, and interviews of key stakeholders at various levels of the maize marketing chain as well as government officials. Estimates of annual maize production in Zambia is available from two sources. The first is the nationally representative Post-Harvest Surveys (PHS). The PHS is conducted annually by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) of the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ). The other source of annual maize production estimates is the Crop Forecast Survey (CFS). The CFS is conducted annually by the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and this data is also the basis for trend analysis in aggregate agricultural production indices compiled by the FAO. Data from two nationally-representative surveys conducted in 2001 and 2004 by FSRP provided a comprehensive assessment of smallholder conditions in Zambia. Data on maize grain and maize meal imports and exports in Southern and Eastern Africa were obtained from the online Food and Agriculture Organization Agriculture Statistics (FAOSTAT). viii viii
Poverty Impact of Rising Maize Prices in Kenya
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The recent hike in food prices has been of great concern to policymakers, international organisations and donor agencies. In this paper we discuss, both from a partial and general equilibrium perspective, the impact of the recent price increase on maize on Kenyan households. Simulating a 100% increase in maize prices, we find that the headcount ratio in urban areas increased by 3-4 percentage unit points, depending on the size of windfall gain to producers. Based on the assumption that the price shock is passed through in total to the farmers, food poverty in the rural areas could be reduced by almost 14%. If incomes are not passed through, rural food poverty would increase quite significantly in some provinces. It is the poorest of the poor in both urban and rural areas who are most adversely affected. Policy reforms, which would reduce marketing margins and fertiliser prices, would be important factors in promoting a positive impact on performance in the maize sector. The regional maize trade within East Africa seems to have a role to play, and exploring the impact of total integration of the maize markets could be a topic of further research.
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The Impact of Labour Market Liberalization on Maize Productivity and Rural Poverty in Malawi1
This paper quantifies the effects of labour market liberalization on employment, maize production and productivity in Malawi. Applying a frontier production function and Divisia Index, we find that total factor productivity declined at 1.2% per annum from 1985 to 2000. Prior to market liberalization (1985 - 1995), productivity increased at an average annual growth rate of 2.0%. However, there was a sharp decline in maize productivity after 1995, implying that market liberalization had a significant impact on maize production efficiency. Coupled with recent droughts experiences, the sharp maize productivity decline could be attributed to sharp decline in the input use, that is, labor (-6.7%), fertilizer (-1.5%) and land (-3.5%). Maize productivity constantly declined from 1995 onwards, and decreased by 2.8% per annum in the post- liberalization era. The largest contributing factor to the maize productivity decline is the decrease in farm labour input share, which is largely affected ...
REVIEW OF MAIZE MARKETING IN KENYA: IMPLEMENTATION AND IMPACT OF LIBERALISATION, 1989-1999
… to Higher Maize …, 2004
Maize is the key food crop in Kenya, with estimated production (1998) of 3 million tons of which about 40% are marketed. The Government strictly controlled all aspects of maize marketing until 1986 when gradual liberalisation started and this was completed in 1995. The objective of this study is to assess the degree of policy implementation and the impact of liberalisation of maize marketing on stakeholders between 1989 and 1999. The method of the study included review of available literature, conduct of interviews with stakeholders and the authors' personal observations of maize marketing activities. Results indicate that liberalisation was implemented without the formation of alternative marketing institutions. Also, maize prices fluctuated substantially according to competitive market forces with limited moderating effects from the Government through open market interventions and import tariffs. But soon the rules of regional and worldwide trading organisations will render this impossible. Private sector participation at all levels in the marketing system increased substantially. There is easy maize flow and supplies to all parts of Kenya. One recommended intervention is to form maize farmer-based institutions for the marketing of maize, provision of maize market information and credit. Further studies should assess the impact of liberalisation and continued regulation of maize imports on producers and consumers.