Uncovering the dangerous alliances, 1495–1980 (original) (raw)
Related papers
Measuring Alliances: the Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Dataset, 1816–2000
Journal of Peace Research, 2004
This article serves as a companion to the release of Version 3.0 of the Correlates of War Formal Interstate Alliance Dataset, 1816–2000. First released in 1966, the Correlates of War alliance data have greatly influenced quantitative studies of conflict, providing an important variable in the study of international conflict and cooperation. The article begins by describing the historical development and the major characteristics of the alliance dataset. The second section then discusses the procedures used to both identify and code each alliance in this revised and extended version of the data, and this is followed by a description of several important changes made to the original coding rules in order to develop this dataset, with the most notable of these changes being a more determined reliance on treaty texts rather than historical accounts for identification of alliances and alliance types. To show the effects of the revised coding decisions and the enlarged temporal domain, th...
Journal of Peace Research, 1966
Although students of world politics have come increasingly to speak of their empirical domain as a social system, little effort has gone into the systematic observation and measurement of its formal or informal structure. One structural attribute of the inter national system which leaves a definite trace and is therefore readily measurable, is that of alliance patterns. This paper examines all written (peacetime only) alliances among system members, describes the procedures for classifying them, and then transforms such information into quantitative indicators of alliance aggregation for various forms of the international system for every year between 1815 and 1939. Such data make it possible to treat this particular system attribute as either a dependent or an inde pendent variable for purposes of hypothesis testing or exploration in world politics.
International Studies Review, 2004
Can we put labels on states due to their history of conflict involvement? Popular folklore as well as the rhetoric of politicians suggests that we can. Germany up to the end of World War II and Japan in the same period were labeled ''revisionist'' or ''aggressive'' states. President Reagan called the Soviet Union ''the Evil Empire,'' due to its seemingly expansionist ideology, but also due to its presumably aggressive behavior. Israel is often depicted by many of its neighbors and other countries in and outside the Middle East as ''inherently expansionist.'' These examples suggest a notion that states can somehow be structurally characterized, independently of specific policies, leaders, political parties or regimes in power, economic and social conditions. If we can label states in structural terms, we can also label pairs or groups of states. For example, President George W. Bush branded North Korea, Iran, and Iraq as the ''Axis of Evil,'' due to these countries' pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. The Clinton administration identified Syria, Iran, and Iraq as a destabilizing axis in the Middle East, confronting the latter two through a policy of dual containment. The scholarly literature on international politics has identified structural patterns of warring or conflicting dyads through such concepts as protracted conflict, intractable conflicts, andFmore analytically definedFthe concept of enduring rivalries (Diehl and Goertz 2000; Maoz and Mor 2002). How scientifically sound are such labels? More importantly, are such labels helpful in understanding the causes, courses, and consequences of international conflicts? In other areas of human and social inquiry, structural characterization of units is of immense importance. Genetic research clearly indicates that certain people are far more prone to some diseases than others. Research on addiction attempts to identify structural propensities of drug or alcohol abuse. Research on recidivism in criminology is intent on identifying structural propensities for crime. Research on poverty systematically identifies structural characteristics including individual, family, and even national correlates of poverty. This study is motivated by the following empirical observation about international conflict: the distribution of national and dyadic conflict involvement during the last two centuries reveals extreme inequalities. A substantial number of states have engaged in little or no conflict with other states, while a small group of states has participated in a disproportionately high fraction of all conflicts. Likewise, a substantial number of politically relevant dyadsFdyads that are expected by virtue of their geographic proximity or span of strategic interests to be highly conflict proneFturn out to have little or no conflict experience over their joint history. On the other hand, a handful of dyads are responsible for most of the conflict activity in the international system. This observation runs contrary to both explicit and implicit notions about international conflict in the literature. Studies influenced by realist conceptions assert that conflict is an endemic feature of international anarchy. Hence, it follows that every stateFif it survives long enoughFis bound to get involved in militarized interstate
Jumping into the Fray: Alliances, Power, Institutions, and the Timing of Conflict Expansion
International Interactions, 2010
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Political Geography Quarterly, 1990
Following the admonition of that international relations scholars 'need to reconceptualizeexactly whut it is that we want to study, and why', the authors attempt to understand alliances through the broader context of geopolitics and geopolitical perspectives on international relations. Using the ecological triad framework of the Sprouts, and Starr's 'opportunity and willingness' framework. alliances are viewed as part of the geopolitical constraints on available possibilities in the system, as part of the set of incentive structures that affect foreign policy decision-making, and as a central mechanism that permits decision-makers to overcome the geopolitical constraints of the system. Drawing on analogies with technology and borders, alliances can be viewed as important tools for overcoming the constraints of geopolitics, and for changing the meaning of the supposedly 'permanent' nature of international geography.
The concept of international affinity-albeit under different names-captures a central place in international relations research. This study examines how different types of affinity affect the likelihood of conflict between states. We discuss notions of affinities derived from the realist, liberal, and culturlalist paradigm and derive hypotheses regarding the impact of different types of affinity on the probability of dyadic conflict. We point out some of the weaknesses in existing measures of structural affinity. We offer a social networks conception of structural affinity-the concept of structural equivalence-which reflects the similarity of international ties across a set of different networks. A test of the hypotheses derived from these paradigms using both existing measures of affinity and our own structural equivalence measures suggests several findings: (1) strategic affinity has a consistent dampening effect on the probability of dyadic conflict; (2) trade-related affinity does not have a significant impact on the probability of dyadic conflict; (3) IGOrelated affinity has a negative impact on conflict, mostly in the 20 th century. (4) Cultural (linguistic and religious) affinity also does not appear to have a significant or consistent effect on the probability of dyadic conflict. We discuss the implications of our findings for theories of international politics.