South Asia's Nuclear Security by Bhumitra Chakma (original) (raw)
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Changing Nuclear Norms in South Asia a Threat to Regional Peace
Changing Nuclear Norms in South Asia a Threat to Regional Peace
This article is about changing the normative behavior about the usages of nuclear weapons and the emerging threat of nuclear war in South Asia. It is a general belief that deterrence has provided strategic stability against the usage of a nuclear weapon. Little attention has been paid over the years to normative behavior that gradually emerged and refrained states from preemptive nuclear strikes. Leaders of both India and Pakistan repeatedly claimed that these weapons are only for defensive purposes. But with changing geopolitical situation this normative behavior has changed. India adopted Cold Start Doctrine (Though it is a conventional military strategy) but due to a huge disparity in the conventional military weapon, Pakistan developed tactical nuclear weapons and adopted the idea of full-spectrum deterrence. When India did not manage to punish Pakistan with conventional means it started looking for other options. The idea of a preemptive counterforce strike and changing of Indian nuclear doctrine got attention. With these debates about nuclear strikes underway, Intrusion by Indian jets inside Pakistan in February 2019, put both countries on brink of war which could escalate into nuclear. Although war averted that time, recently India had repealed the special constitutional status of Occupied Kashmir, which again aggravated the situation. With this changing normative behavior and deepening crisis between both states chances of war that can turn nuclear is now maximum than ever.
Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Security in South Asia
2011
In the new issue of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Working Papers series, Peter Topychkanov analyzes South Asian regional strategic security issues, the role of nuclear weapons in Indo-Pakistani relations, the external and internal factors shaping these countries’ nuclear postures, and security-enhancing efforts emanating from inside and outside the region. Topychkanov describes the strategic security situation in South Asia as rather unstable. Among the issues are: a high risk of conflict between India and Pakistan caused by cross-border terrorism, accidents with nuclear weapons in both states, the Kashmir dispute, and the problem of sharing water from the Indus river. Major efforts to enhance regional security must be made by India and Pakistan. The author also argues that third countries, international organizations, and nonproliferation regimes can play a positive role as well. According to Topychkanov, both nuclear optimists and pessimists agree that nuclear weapons proliferation in South Asia will not lead to a deliberate outbreak of large-scale war. Neither Indian nor Pakistani leaders wish to initiate a conflict that could end in a nuclear exchange with disastrous consequences. Still, a catastrophic conflict could occur even though neither the Indians nor the Pakistanis intend to start a nuclear war, and all measures must be taken to prevent it. The author concludes that India and Pakistan should be engaged in nonproliferation regimes on a nondiscriminatory basis (IAEA, NSG, MTCR, etc.). Engagement would be in the interest of India and Pakistan and would set a good example for the nuclear threshold states. The incentives of nuclear cooperation must be made conditional on acceptance of NPT commitments and IAEA safeguards by recipient states.
Book Reviews THE EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE IN SOUTH ASIA
2014
Publisher: The Army Press, Islamabad 2014 Pages: 272 ISBN: 978-969-9982-00-2. outh Asian nuclear patterns always force the proponents of nuclear nonproliferation regime to discuss the nuclear issues of the region by adopting critical examining standards. A number of scholars have tried to discussion nature of South Asian nuclear muscles from difference perspective. The global critical standards, exclusively for Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, are constantly evaluating the nuclear ambitions of India and Pakistan in belligerent style. The varying arguments of scholarly debate attempt to present a logical and rational analysis of Indian and Pakistani nuclear capabilities by adopting a combination of supporting and opposing approaches. The writer Tughral Yamin's in his book titled The Evolution of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia strives to provide a survey of regional nuclear efforts of Islamabad and New Delhi. The eight chapters of Yamin's investigation is a comprehensive...
While recent history arguably demonstrates a high level of nuclear stability in South Asia, this article argues that this stability has historically been a function of India's relative weakness. It argues that, as India becomes stronger, attention must be paid to the technical and political requirements of nuclear stability: the reliability of weapons and command and control and the political conditions that underpin stable relations between nuclear-armed states. It concludes by recommending the United States aim to modify the perceptions of regional elites about their various intentions and decision-making processes and the role of the United States as crisis manager.
Nuclear Doctrine: Ramifications for South Asia
The strategic culture of South Asia is characterized by the hostility between India and Pakistan. Conventional arms' race, wars, growing insecurity and ultimately nuclearization of the region is the consequence of this continual enmity. To match this threatening environment both Pakistan and India has opted nuclear arms. After the nuclear explosions of 1998 the world started to talk about the nuclear doctrine for the region. This present study is an effort to understand doctrine, nuclear doctrine and it's ramifications for South Asia. It will be analyzed whether these doctrines fulfill the required qualities and what implication they do have on both countries in general and the region in particular. It is essential to analyze them as the changing global scenario demands for the clear picture of the nuclear posture of both paramount states of the South Asian region. This region casts its impact not only on the residing actors but the neighboring region as well. The research concludes that the re-establishment of constant dialogue and diplomatic efforts are more beneficial for the region to counter the threat and insecurity.
Emerging Complexity of Nuclear South Asia
Chinese Journal of International Review, 2021
South Asia is a geo-political system which has its unique security characters. The emerging complex nature of a system could lead either to the security or insecurity of that system. India and Pakistan are the emerging nuclear powers of South Asia. The nuclear doctrines and behavior of India and Pakistan promote the advancement of their nuclear programs in both strategic and civil domains. Both countries desire stability, the balance of power and security through the possession of nuclear options. However, the author argues that South Asia’s existing nuclear environment and its emerging complexity have produced insecurity and instability in the region at large. This paper is an attempt to identify the complexity of actors and behaviors and their emerging threats to the security of the region. There is also a lack of literature to portray the nuclear risk that the non-nuclear states face in South Asia. This paper tries to fill that gap as well.