Chapter 16: Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation (original) (raw)
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Sustainability, Special Issue, 2019
Editor: J.H.Spangenberg. Special Issue open access at :https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability/special\_issues/scenarios\_indicators\_sustainable\_development Editorial intro: The global ecosphere is a complex, evolving system, and the anthroposphere another, more rapidly evolving one. Globalization and telecoupling are enhancing their complexity, and even more that of the coupled socio-ecological system [1]. Sustainable development as a global normative development concept and as defined by the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adds another level of complexity [2]. As a result, the demand for tools to identify transformative innovations, assess future risks, and support precautionary decision-making for sustainability is growing by the day in business and politics. Scenarios are a means of simplification, reducing real-world complexity to a potentially high but limited number of factors, analyzing their interactions, and supporting policy formulation [3]. However, they are not "objective" representations of reality but to a certain degree cannot but reflect orientations and norms held by their authors [4]. While political or management demands can emerge rather spontaneously, scenario development takes time-the demand for climate scenarios with a maximum 1.5 • C of global warming took the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC by surprise and required almost three years to be fulfilled. Integrated models are at the core of the IPCC 1.5 • report, but also used all over the world for sustainable development assessment and strategy development. Nevertheless, they (and in particular the economic computable global equilibrium (CGE) models most of them incorporate) are criticized for a lack of transparency, implicit normative assumptions, technical insufficiencies, political bias and an inability to capture the stark and structural changes of the effect-driving mechanisms, in particular the roles of uncertainty and of non-linearities (tipping points). These and other shortcomings limit their reliability as basis for policy development-for instance, the IPCC's model-based warnings have become more severe with every new report. Is this only due to newly discovered facts, or can one of the reasons be the implicit habit of scientists to avoid type 2 errors (claiming a relationship when it does not exist) at the expense of making type 1 errors (not confirming the existence of a relationship when it exists)? [5] What roles do other habits and routines, and the worldviews of scholars, play in the assumptions made and the interpretations given, in particular in the CGE components? At least the latest IPCC scenarios, assuming ongoing economic growth in affluent countries at the cost of a greenhouse gas overshoot, indicate that scholarly beliefs can trump physical necessities-the economists involved refused to test any scenario analyzing how a no-growth, steady state, or even degrowth economy would work out for social structures, economic prospects, and community flourishing [6]. This is no coincidence but in line with usual procedures of standard economics: so far, the only models used to inform policy choices are at the "optimistic" end of the scale, and within them, functions and parameter choices are taken so "extreme" conclusions are avoided, such as immediately stopping all GHG emissions being the economically optimal policy [7] as this reflects the willingness to pay to avoid future damage [8].
The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis
Global Environmental Change, 2004
Unsustainable tendencies in the co-evolution of human and natural systems have stimulated a search for new approaches to understanding complex problems of environment and development. Recently, attention has been drawn to the emergence of a new “sustainability science,” and core questions and research strategies have been proposed. A key challenge of sustainability is to examine the range of plausible future pathways of combined social and environmental systems under conditions of uncertainty, surprise, human choice, and complexity. This requires charting new scientific territory and expanding the current global change research agenda. Scenario analysis—including new participatory and problem-oriented approaches—provides a powerful tool for integrating knowledge, scanning the future in an organized way, and internalizing human choice into sustainability science. Originally published in Global Environmental Change 14 (2004): 137–146.
Windows on the Future: Global Scenarios & Sustainability
Environment, 1998
One way to gain insights into the uncertain future is to construct what are known as scenarios. This article explores a wide range of long-term scenarios that could unfold from the forces that will drive the world system in the twenty-first century by considering six contrasting possibilities. The scenarios were developed by an international and interdisciplinary group of 15 development professionals called the Global Scenario Group. This scan of the future illuminates the perils and possibilities before us and, more importantly, helps to clarify the changes in policies and values that will be required for a transition to sustainability during coming decades. Originally published in Environment 40, no. 3 (April 1998): 6-11, 26-31.
World in Transition A Social Contract for Sustainability (Flagship Report WBGU 2011)
2011
In this report, the WBGU explains the reasons for the desperate need for a post-fossil economic strategy, yet it also concludes that the transition to sustainability is achievable, and presents ten concrete packages of measures to accelerate the imperative restructuring. If the transformation really is to succeed, we have to enter into a social contract for innovation, in the form of a new kind of discourse between governments and citizens, both within and beyond the boundaries of the nation state. " The new WBGU-Study 'A Social Contract for Sustainability' appears at a time in which people around the world are increasingly committed to creating a future that is both sustainable and climate-safe. The study shows that such a future will only be possible if governments, business and civil society collectively set the right course, making the most of regional, national and global cooperation. An important call to cross-cutting integrated action, the book deserves wide recognition. " Christiana Figueres Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Bending the curve: toward global sustainability
Development, 2000
The POLESTAR ë Publication Series This publication series is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute's PoleStar Project. Named after the star that guided voyagers through uncharted waters, the multi-year PoleStar Project addresses critical aspects of the transition to sustainability. Scenario analysis illuminates long-range problems and possibilities at global, regional, national and local levels. Capacity building strengthens professional capabilities for a new era of development. Policy studies fashion strategies and actions. The PoleStar System © provides a user-friendly tool for organizing pertinent data, formulating scenarios, and evaluating strategies for sustainable development. For more information, visit http://www.seib.org/polestar.html on the Internet. The Global Scenario Group was established to carry forward the global aspects of this work.