The effect of concurrent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic on Caribbean rainfall (original) (raw)
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Investigating the link between early season Caribbean rainfall and the El Niño + 1 year
International Journal of Climatology, 2002
The Caribbean rainfall season is best characterized by its bimodal nature, with an initial peak in May-June and a second more prominent one in September-October. This allows for a convenient division into an early and a late rainfall season. In this study we examine the rainfall patterns of the early rainfall season (mid April to July) for links with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whereas traditionally ENSO events have been identified with dry conditions during the later Caribbean rainfall season, recent research suggests a second signal that manifests itself as a wet early rainfall season of the year of ENSO decline (the El Niño+1 year). Two leading empirical orthogonal function modes of early season Caribbean rainfall are examined for evidence of this. Strong correlations are shown to exist between the first mode and wintertime equatorial Pacific anomalies. The first mode explains nearly half of the early season variability. The idea that the wintertime Pacific anomalies alter the early Caribbean rainfall season via the warm spring sea surface temperature anomalies they induce in the north tropical Atlantic is also investigated. An atmospheric general circulation model is also used to show that, when warm/cold anomalies exist across the north tropical Atlantic, this results in a large-scale atmospheric circulation that is more/less favourable to rainfall production over the Caribbean. Copyright 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
Decadal climate variability in the eastern Caribbean
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011
Rainfall variability in the eastern Caribbean during the 20th century is analyzed using principal component analysis and singular value decomposition. In contrast to earlier studies that used seasonal data, here we employ continuous signal processing. The leading mode is a decadal oscillation related to third and fourth modes of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperatures (SST) which together identify three zones of action in the Atlantic: 35°N-20°N, 20°N-5°N, and 5°N-20°S. The ability of the ECHAM4.5 model to simulate this signal is investigated. Its decadal variability is also represented through lower-order SLP and SST modes that comprise an Atlantic tripole pattern with lower pressure east of the Caribbean. Composite analysis of high and low phases of the decadal mode reflects a cool east Pacific and a more active Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone during boreal summer, conditions that favor the intensification of African easterly waves. The decadal signal has strengthened since 1970, yet the three centers of action in Atlantic SST are relatively unsynchronized.
Climate Dynamics, 2015
and summertime WTs is rather abrupt, especially in May. One summertime WT (WT 4) is prevalent in summer, and almost exclusive around late July. It is characterized by strong NASH, fast Caribbean low level jet and rainfall mostly concentrated over the Caribbean Islands, the Florida Peninsula, the whole Central America and the tropical Eastern Pacific. The two remaining summertime WTs display widespread rainfall respectively from Central America to Bermuda (WT 5) and over the Eastern Caribbean (WT 6). Both WTs combine reduced regional scale subsidence and weaker Caribbean low-level jet relatively to WT 4. The relationships between WT frequency and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are broadly linear. Warm central and eastern ENSO events are associated with more WT 4 (less WT 5-6) during boreal summer and autumn (0) while this relationship is reversed during boreal summer (+1) for central events only. In boreal winter, the largest anomalies are observed for two WTs consistent with negative (WT 2) and positive (WT 8) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation; more (less) WT 2 and less (more) WT 8 than usually occur from January to early April during warm (cold) ENSO events, the strongest anomalies being recorded during eastern events. Multinomial logistic regression is used to hindcast the 11-day low-pass filtered occurrence of WTs from local (Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) and remote (Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In boreal summer, the interannual variability of the seasonal occurrence of WTs 4-6 is well hindcast when at least the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Tropical Pacific are included as predictors with anomalously warm (cold) SSTs over the Caribbean Sea (Eastern Tropical Pacific) being related to more WT 5-6 and less WT 4 and vice-versa. Using antecedent SST to forecast WT frequency shows that the SST forcing is negligible at the start of boreal summer and increases toward its end.
A quasi-decadal cycle in Caribbean climate
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2009
Climatic variables in the period from 1951 to 2000 are analyzed across the tropics from the East Pacific to Africa. A quasi-decadal mode is isolated using singular value decomposition (SVD) applied to monthly smoothed and detrended rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and 200 hPa zonal (U) wind anomalies. Seven-to 10-year cycles in Caribbean rainfall are revealed as the dominant mode (50% variance) and are found to be related to a mode of tropical variability that is distinct from previously known global signals. Sources of this signal include east Atlantic SST and the northern subtropical ridge, which modulate upwelling off Venezuela. SVD analysis of daily rainfall suggests interaction between annual and quasi-decadal signals, with northern summer convection as a driver. The second mode of Caribbean rainfall variability derives from the east Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, 21% variance) that is expressed as an east-west dipole of convection across the Caribbean. Composite analysis of rainfall for high and low phases of the quasi-decadal cycle reveals a corresponding signal that extends from the eastern Pacific Ocean across the Caribbean and West Africa to India. The southern Hadley cell spins up during wet phase, and the ITCZ migrates northward. This hemispheric-scale anomaly brings pulses of convection to the Caribbean. Impacts of the quasi-decadal cycle on socioeconomic resources are investigated.
Interannual Variability of Caribbean Rainfall, ENSO, and the Atlantic Ocean*
Journal of Climate, 2000
The large-scale ocean-atmosphere patterns that influence the interannual variability of Caribbean-Central American rainfall are examined. The atmospheric circulation over this region is shaped by the competition between the North Atlantic subtropical high sea level pressure system and the eastern Pacific ITCZ, which influence the convergence patterns on seasonal and interannual timescales. The authors find the leading modes of interannual sea level pressure (SLP) and SST variability associated with Caribbean rainfall, as selected by canonical correlation analysis, to be an interbasin mode, linking the eastern Pacific with the tropical Atlantic, and an Atlantic mode. North Atlantic SLP affects Caribbean rainfall directly, by changing the patterns of surface flow over the region, and indirectly, through SST anomalies. Anomalously high SLP in the region of the North Atlantic high translates into stronger trade winds, hence cooler SSTs, and less Caribbean rainfall. The interbasin mode, which manifests itself as a zonal seesaw in SLP between the tropical Atlantic and the eastern equatorial Pacific, is correlated with ENSO. When SLP is low in the eastern equatorial Pacific, it is high in the tropical Atlantic: the surface atmospheric flow over the basin is divergent, to the west, toward the eastern Pacific ITCZ, and to the east, toward the tropical North Atlantic. A weakened meridional SLP gradient in the tropical North Atlantic signifies weaker trade winds and the opportunity for SSTs to warm up, reaching peak intensity 2-4 months after the mature phase of an ENSO event. This SST anomaly is particularly evident in the Caribbean-western Atlantic basin. The tendency is for drier-than-average conditions when the divergent atmospheric flow dominates, during the rainy season preceding the mature phase of a warm ENSO event. The dry season that coincides with the mature phase of ENSO is wetter than average over the northwestern section of the basin, that is, Yucatan, the Caribbean coast of Honduras, and Cuba, and drier than average over the rest of the basin, that is, Costa Rica and northern South America. The following spring, as the atmospheric circulation transitions to normal conditions, the positive SST anomaly that has built up in the basin takes over, favoring convection. The positive precipitation anomaly spreads southeastward, from the northwest to the entire basin. At the start of a new rainy season, it is especially strong over the Greater Antilles.
The dependence of Caribbean rainfall on the interaction of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
2010
Seasonally stratified analyses of rainfall anomalies over the intra-Americas sea and surrounding land areas and of onset and end dates of the Central American rainy season show that the variability of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is more strongly associated with rainfall over the Caribbean and Central America than is tropical eastern Pacific SSTA. Seasonal differences include the importance of antisymmetric configurations of tropical Atlantic SSTA in the dry season but not in the rainy season. Both oceans are related to rainfall, but the strength of the rainfall response appears to depend on how SSTA in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific combine. The strongest response occurs when the tropical Atlantic is in the configuration of a meridional dipole (antisymmetric across the ITCZ) and the eastern tropical Pacific is of opposite sign to the tropical North Atlantic. When the tropical North Atlantic and tropical Pacific are of the same sign, the rainfall response is weaker. The rainy season in lower Central America tends to start early and end late in years that begin with warm SSTs in the tropical North Atlantic, and the end dates are also delayed when the eastern equatorial Pacific is cool. This enhancement of date departures for zonally antisymmetric configurations of SSTA between the North Atlantic and Pacific is qualitatively consistent with the results for rainfall anomalies.
Seasonality in the impact of ENSO and the north atlantic high on caribbean rainfall
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere, 2001
Caribbean rainfall is affected by climate variability of Pacific and Atlantic origin, e.g. the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and variability in the North Atlantic High sea level pressure (SLP) center, respectively. During the lifetime of an ENS0 cycle, the basin experiences dry and wet extremes. In the case of a warm event, the dry extreme precedes the mature ENS0 phase, and can be explained in terms of a direct response to the atmospheric anomaly generated by the warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The wet extreme follows the mature phase, and is consistent with the lagged warming effect of ENS0 on tropical North Atlantic SSTs. The wintertime state of the North Atlantic High is hypothesized to affect Caribbean rainfall through its effect on tropical SST. A strong North Atlantic High SLP center during the early months of the calendar year strengthens the trade winds, hence cooling SSTs in the tropical latitudes of the North Atlantic. The effect lingers on most noticeably until the start of the Caribbean rainy season, in May-June, when cool SSTs are associated with deficient rainfall in the basin.
Influence of the tropical Atlantic versus the tropical Pacific on Caribbean rainfall
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2002
The Caribbean rainfall season runs from May through November and is distinctly bimodal in nature. The bimodality allows for a convenient division into an early season (May-June-July) and a late season (August-September-October). Evidence suggests that interannual variability in the early season is influenced strongly by anomalies in the sea surface temperatures of the tropical North Atlantic, with positive anomalies over a narrow latitudinal band (0°-20°N) being associated with enhanced Caribbean rainfall. The coincidence of this band with the main development region for tropical waves suggests a modification of the development of the waves by the warmer tropical Atlantic. The strong influence of the tropical North Atlantic wanes in the late season, with the equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic becoming more significant modulators of interannual variability. The spatial pattern of significant correlation suggests strongly the influence of the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon, with a warm Pacific associated with a depressed late season and vice versa. There additionally seems to be a robust relationship between late season Caribbean rainfall and an east-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) between the two equatorial oceanic basins. Oppositely signed SST anomalies in the NINO3 region and the central equatorial Atlantic (0°-15°W, 5°S-5°N) are well correlated with Caribbean rainfall for this period.
Observed and SST-forced seasonal rainfall variability across tropical America
International Journal of Climatology, 2001
Three experiments starting from different initial conditions have been made with the ECHAM-4 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) integrated at T30 resolution forced with the observed sea-surface temperature (SST) over the period 1960-1994. The tropical America modes of seasonal rainfall anomalies whose time variation is most accurately simulated by the GCM have been searched for using Singular Value Decomposition Analyses (SVDA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between observed and model fields. The leading modes revealed by SVDA and CCA are highly similar, even though the ordering of the modes showed some fluctuation. A first skilful rainfall anomaly mode has weights of the same sign almost everywhere in tropical America, except along the western coast and the sub-tropical margins. This mode appears in all of the four seasons assessed. A second major skilful mode is usually a bipolar north-south (N-S) rainfall anomaly pattern (clear in December -March, DJFM; March -May, MAM; and June-September, JJAS).
Geographica Pannonica, 2020
The study assesses the covariability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and March to May (MAM) rainfall variability on East Africa (EA) from 1981 to 2018. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis reveals the significant influence of SST anomalies on MAM rainfall, with covariability of 91%, 88.61%, and 82.9% for Indian, Atlantic, and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. The Indian Ocean explains the variability of rainfall to the large extent followed by the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The rainfall patterns over the EA correspond to SST variability over the western, central, and Eastern Indian Ocean. Likewise, the variability of SST anomalies was observed over the central, south, and North of the Atlantic Ocean while the Pacific Ocean captured the El Nino Modoki (ENSO) like pattern in the SVD1 (SVD2). The heterogeneous correlation of Indian SST anomalies and rainfall over EA of the first (second) principal component (PC) shows a positive correlation over much of the domain (ce...