Caspian Energy Diplomacy: since the end of the Cold-War (original) (raw)
Related papers
Caspian Energy Diplomacy After the End of the Cold War, Foreign Policy Institute, 2006
2006
The Caspian region is considered to be one of the next oil and gas frontiers. Along with the re-distribution of political power and the emergence of new balances after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the continuous waves of change also have had significant effects on the prospects for development of energy resources in the region. The objective of this study is to develop a model in order to understand and predict the outcome of the policies of the major actors (governments and companies) in the development and marketing of Caspian Sea energy resources. More specifically, the purpose is to identify the principal factors and their interactions in selecting export routes for the energy resources of the Caspian Basin. My hypothesis in this study is that political factors are dominant in the region. In the final analysis, the political process is more important than economics in determining which pipeline is to be built. The principal inputs to the development of the model will be detailed analyses of; (1) the development of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline project, and (2) the determination of the export route for Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan offshore oil field. Such a predictive model can then be applied to other countries in the region, or other similar resource-rich regions of the world. After studying the developments leading to BTC’s success, the promising oil and gas developments in Kazakhstan shall be examined. How will the Kashagan oil field be developed? What alternatives are available to the Kazakh government other than the Russian oil pipeline network? With regard to this question, I put forward the most likely outcome. My methodology will modify Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s (BDM) model of predicting political events in an attempt to find an answer to the abovementioned central question. Applicability of the BDM model will be tested in the context of energy development, which is different from the original and traditional fields of application for this model.
Energy Policy, 2007
This paper makes a new conceptualization on Caspian energy system and the transit routes that pass through Turkey. Firstly, it puts forward the term of ''inner-Caspian'', comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Secondly, it identifies subsystems of ''western energy corridor through Turkey'' (WECT) by diversifying: (1) ''WECT inner-Caspian'', which includes hydrocarbon transportation from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; (2) ''WECT Russia'', which is currently composed of Blue Stream gas pipeline and oil transportation by tankers through Turkish straits; and (3) ''WECT Middle East'', which refers to Iranian, Iraqi and Egyptian hydrocarbons. Thirdly, this paper makes a comparative analysis on WECT systems through selected economic (reserves, supply/demand, production and transportation costs), geo-political (e.g. moves of the concerned actors), political (e.g. recent developments in government structures) and security (especially in terms of transport) indicators which bring out that ''it is more reasonable for the EU to first embrace WECT inner-Caspian, then develop WECT Middle-East in order to diversify its energy supply''.
Energy politics and geopolitical competition in the Caspian Basin
This article explores geopolitical rivalry in the Caspian Basin, driven in large measure by the desire to control and exploit energy resources. It focuses in particular on actions by Russia, China, and the United States. While outside actors play an important role in the region, local states have demonstrated that they are not merely passive players. They have managed, in many cases, to use the 'geopolitical pluralism' of great power competition to gain room to maneuver. The result is a complicated picture of geopolitical balance. Looking ahead, however, China may be in the best position to assume the pre-eminent role in the region.
ENERGY POLITICS: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF KAZAKHSTAN
As being a young sovereign state, Kazakhstan had developed a close relationship with the U.S. ever since it gained independence from the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan consists huge deposits of oil and natural gas and bordering the Caspian Sea that attracts the interests of energy consuming countries of the world. The U.S is much interested in Kazakh's huge natural resources, therefore it promoted many U.S. companies to invest in Kazakh's energy sector. Due to the largest foreign investor in the development of Kazakh economy, the U.S tried to establish its hegemony in Kazakhstan as well as in the Caspian Sea by encouraging its economic assistance for the development of the region. On the other hand, Kazakhstan also needs the U.S assistance and investment due to its landlocked location and weak infrastructure. This article examines the role of oil and gas for determining Kazakh economic relations with the U.S. It discusses that Kazakhstan has been following the Multi-vector foreign policy due to geopolitical location and consisting huge natural resources. On the other hand, it will also evaluate the pipeline politics and Russian engagement in the region for oil and natural gas resources of Kazakhstan that hinders the flow of Kazakh-U.S relations.
Markos Troulis - Power politics and energy politics (CEJISS).pdf
The growing EU energy market and the decline of its domestic hydrocarbon reserves have made the EU-Russia energy relations a very debatable and significant issue of the very near future. It is unquestioned that energy trade is found at the core of every political entity or group of entities desiring to be independent and self-helped. The current paper aims to discuss the theoretical legacy of this energy debate on the basis of international relations theory and international political economy underlining the significance of energy trade and its interlinkage to core aspects of security. In this respect, it is also analysed why natural gas is a special energy product and which are the limits between dependence and interdependence as well as the implications derived from each one of these.
2024
Energy projects and pipelines have become critically important, influencing not only the member countries involved in initiatives like the Trans-Caspian pipeline but also the broader region. The significant role of energy in both economic and political spheres has prompted countries to focus on areas rich in oil and gas reserves. Central Asia and the Caucasus are key regions in this context, with Turkmenistan playing a vital role due to its substantial natural gas reserves. The Trans-Caspian pipeline project is regarded as one of Turkmenistan's most important initiatives for developing natural gas exports. Given the considerable importance of the Trans-Caspian pipeline for the countries in the region, particularly Iran, this research aims to explore the question: What impact does the implementation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline have on the geopolitical and geoeconomic interests of Iran? Utilizing the explanatory-analytical method informed by the theoretical frameworks of the Copenhagen School, the primary hypothesis of this research posits that the implementation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline will yield diverse effects on Iran's geopolitics and geoeconomics. The research findings indicate that the implementation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline poses various geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges for Iran, notably threatening its energy security and influencing military and political dimensions. Given these implications, developments related to the Trans-Caspian pipeline demand greater attention, particularly concerning their potential to diminish Iran's influence in the region, alter the balance of power in favor of Western countries, and undermine Iran's role as an energy transit route and supplier to the European market.
The Competition of Major Powers for the Caspian Energy Resources
Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Historical Sciences, Philosophy, Religion Series, 2020
This article analyzes the competition among major, regional as well as littoral states. The Caspian Sea is the largest enclosed body of salty water in the world without having a natural connection to the open sea or any ocean. Moreover, it possesses immense hydrocarbon reserves in the subsoil. The geopolitical location of the Caspian Region is also essential for the Silk Road connecting Europe and Central Asia. So, due to its geopolitical position, availability of vast reserves of energy is an object of acute rivalry from both regional and non-regional powers. Competitions among major powers and conflictual claims of littoral states over its resources have influences on state strategies, programs, foreign policy concepts related to the region.
The Geopolitics of Energy in the Caspian Basin
International Journal of Environmental Research, 2011
After the Soviet Union fragmentation, the attentions of regional and international countries have turned to this region for oil and gas discovery in the Caspian Basin. After that, this region enjoys more geopolitical importance increasingly. Therefore, the main question is:” what factors can influence the new geopolitics of the Caspian basin?” It seems that, some issues such as the lack of a legal status of the Caspian Sea, the pipeline routes for transportation of energy to the world markets and the ecological and environmental issues arising from hydrocarbon resources make the Geopolitical issues of the Caspian basin more complicated. The purpose of presenting this paper is to explain the new geopolitics of the Caspian and different position of each littoral states and international countries regarding as how to use the new hydrocarbon resources of the basin. According to the research findings, each of mentioned countries follows their own national interests in the Caspian basin.
Energy geopolitics of Caspian Sea region: Cooperation, competition or conflict
International journal of applied research, 2017
The 21st century is marked by a rapid economic development and an inequitable allocation of hydrocarbons worldwide. As food is necessary for the survival of human being, similarly energy is required for an economy to survive in this globalized and integrated world economic system. What is going to dominate the world politics in near future and, in fact, is being somewhat influenced by the energy transportation and their acute and amplified energy dependency. Competition to gain access to the Caspian energy and rivalry about transportation routes has to be viewed within this context. The paper seeks to explore the nuances of energy geopolitics in the regional context and its wider general implications.