Urban freight transport demand: transferability of survey results analysis and models (original) (raw)

Urban freight demand forecasting: A mixed quantity/delivery/vehicle-based model

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 2014

The research germinates from the statement that the cities have to solve the impacts due to freight transport in order to improve their sustainability implementing sets of city logistics measures. But city logistics measures involve several actors and choice dimensions. It is therefore important to have methods and models able to assess the effectiveness of the measures to be implemented. The current models were mainly developed to simulate some aspects of urban freight transport, and are not able to forecast many impacts of implementing traffic and transportation measures at an urban scale. This paper presents a modelling approach that tries to point out the relations existing among city logistics measures, actors and choice dimensions. It comprises three model subsystems to estimate the quantity O-D matrices by transport service type (e.g. retailer on own account or wholesaler on own account or by carrier), the delivery O-D matrices by delivery time period, and the vehicle O-D matrices according to delivery tour departure time and vehicle type. This modelling system is a multi-stage model and considers a discrete choice approach for each decisional level. It was first tested using some data collected in the inner area of Rome, including traffic counts and interviews with retailers and truck-drivers. The model estimations were also compared with the experimental ones, and quite satisfactory results were obtained.

Urban Freight Transport Demand Modelling: a State of the Art

istiee.org

The paper provides a review of freight transport demand models for applications in urban and metropolitan areas. The perspective adopted is the short-term one of public decision-makers involved in transport planning and traffic management.

Freight transport in urban areas: a n integrated system of models to simulate freight demand and passengers demand for purchase trips

2010

The urban transport system is a complex system in which freight is moved in the same transport structure in which passengers travel. Given that in many cases urban transportation modeling treats passenger and freight transportation separately, this paper proposes a modeling system to simulate goods movements at an urban scale which combines urban personal travel and commodity flows (commodity flows are generated in order to support a given need). Demand forecast is extremely important for the analysis and the modeling of transportation systems because the planning of infrastructures and services of transports results from the necessity to satisfy the needs of mobility and its characteristics. The scientific literature about freight transportation provides fewer studies than the literature about passenger transportation. Regan and Garrido (20) proposed a comprehensive state of the art of freight demand models, which can be classified into gravity models (Hutchinson (11) List and Turn...

Freight Travel Demand Modeling: Synthesis of Approaches and Development of a Framework

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2000

It is increasingly being recognized at all levels of decision making that freight transportation and economic development are inextricably linked. As a result, many urban entities and states are embarking upon comprehensive freight transportation planning efforts aimed at ensuring safe, efficient, and smooth movement of freight along multimodal and intermodal networks. Over the past few decades there has been considerable published research on (1) freight transportation factors, (2) freight travel demand modeling methods, (3) freight transportation planning issues, and (4) freight data needs, deficiencies, and collection methods. A synthesis of the body of knowledge in these four areas is provided with a view to developing a comprehensive statewide freight transportation planning framework. The proposed framework consists of two interrelated components that facilitate demand estimation and decision making in the freight transportation sector.

Urban freight demand estimation: a probability distribution based method

7th International Conference on Information Systems, Logistics and Supply Chain ILS Conference 2018, July 8-11, Lyon, France , 2018

The lack of data is one of the most common problems when dealing with the design of solutions that optimize urban freight transport (City Logistics Projects). In fact, to be able to process an effective City Logistics Projects for a certain area of the city, it is necessary to have the data concerning the number of daily deliveries that each commercial activity receives in this area, with detailed information regarding the time of delivery, the type of used vehicle and the amount of delivery. Only in this way is it possible to have a correct and realistic dimensioning of the freight demand. In the reality, it is not always possible to have this data for an adequate period of time. This paper, starting from the existing literature on demand forecasting and from an analysis of real data, provides the proposal of an alternative method of forecasting the demand for goods for a given area in the city when only the typology of commercial activities and a small amount of data are known.

Demand models for the estimation of urban goods movements: an application to the city of Rome

This paper presents a specific modelling system which simulates the commodity, delivery and vehicle goods movements, developed in order to support ex-ante assessment of city logistics measures. A review of models developed to simulate the urban freight transport demand is also reported. The review analysis highlights the limits of models for the ex-ante assessment of city logistics measures. For this reason this paper proposes a new modelling system made of different steps approaching problems related to: quantity OD flows, service-type OD flows, delivery OD flows, delivery OD flows for delivery time and vehicle type, and vehicle OD flows. This modelling system has been specified and calibrated using some surveys carried out in the inner area of Rome, where more than 500 truck drivers and more than 600 retailers have been interviewed.

Direct Effects of City Logistics Measures and Urban Freight Demand Models

Sustainable Urban Logistics: Concepts, Methods and Information Systems, 2014

This chapter proposes a general integrated demand modeling system developed within a simulation system to forecast both internal (transportation cost variations) and external (variations of pollution, noise and road accidents) direct effects of city logistics measures. In the first part, the paper considers the shopping and restocking components of urban freight mobility and the relative actor's choices that can be influenced by city logistics measures. The road simulation system is then considered with its various components, and the demand models are analyzed with particular attention to shopping demand models.

Data-based Model for Regional Freight Demand

2015

The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or the use thereof.

Analysing freight transport demand using stated preference data: a survey and a research project for the Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region

Trasporti Europei, 1999

The paper surveys the application of the stated preference technique to analyse freight transport demand. The objective is to identify the contribution of the analysis of hypothetical data to the understanding of freight transport markets as opposed to the results obtained by using observed, revealed preference data. 1 The paper reports on a research carried out with the contribution of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region (L.R. 3/98, prot. 7617/2). A previous version of the paper appeared on Trasporti Europei, n. 13, 1999. 2