Towards more effective peace building: a conversation with Roland Paris* (original) (raw)

Post conflict recovery and peace building

2010

Civil wars are the most common type of large scale violent conflict. They are long, brutal and continue to harm societies long after the shooting stops. Post-conflict countries face extraordinary challenges with respect to development and security. In this paper we examine how countries can recover economically from these devastating conflicts and how international interventions can help to build lasting peace. We revisit the aid and growth debate and confirm that aid does not increase growth in general. However, we find that countries experience increased growth after the end of the war and that aid helps to make the most of this peace dividend. However, aid is only growth enhancing when the violence has stopped, in violent post-war societies aid has no growth enhancing effect. We also find that good governance is robustly correlated with growth, however we cannot confirm that aid increases growth conditional on good policies. We examine various aspects of aid and governance by disaggregating the aid and governance variables. Our analysis does not provide a clear picture of which types of aid and policy should be prioritized. We find little evidence for a growth enhancing effect of UN missions and suggest that case studies may provide better insight into the relationship between security guarantees and economic stabilization.

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK TO ANALYSE CONSEQUENCES OF POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION INTERVENTIONS

THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE LAW AND CRIMINOLOGY (ISSN-2693-0803), 2024

This study examines the intricate dynamics of post-conflict reconstruction (PCR) to develop a conceptual framework for analysing the various consequences of interventions in this complicated field. The study employs a mixed-methods strategy combining a comprehensive literature assessment and conceptual analysis. The literature review explores multiple theoretical frameworks on PCR, including perspectives from political economics, development studies, and peacebuilding. Using the conceptual analysis approach, establishing a comprehensive framework is the outcome of a methodical investigation into the interaction between context, intervention, and outcomes in PCR. The paradigm is then utilized to analyse case studies of Rwanda, the Central African Republic, and The Gambia, offering practical observations and empirical evidence. The findings demonstrate that PCR treatments yield diverse outcomes, encompassing both intended and unanticipated consequences. The study highlights the crucial significance of contextual elements, such as the participation of global entities, power dynamics, and historical legacies, in determining the effectiveness of interventions. The study determines that PCR is a complex and detailed process requiring a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between environment, intervention, and outcomes. The suggested conceptual framework offers a valuable tool for assessing the complex effects of PCR initiatives, allowing policymakers, practitioners, and scholars to create and execute more efficient and contextually appropriate interventions. The research highlights the importance of continuous efforts to advance evidence-based strategies that foster lasting peace and fair development in societies recovering from war. This helps to bridge the gap between theory and practical implementation.

Identifying Pathways to Peace: How International Support Can Help Prevent Conflict Recurrence

This article provides new evidence on how the international community can effectively foster peace after civil war. It expands the current literature's narrow focus on either peacekeeping or aggregated aid flows, adopting a comprehensive, yet disaggregated, view on international peacebuilding efforts. We distinguish five areas of peacebuilding support (peacekeeping, nonmilitary security support, support for politics and governance, for socioeconomic development, and for societal conflict transformation) and analyze which types or combinations are particularly effective and in which context. Applying configurational analysis (qualitative comparative analysis) to all thirty-six post-civil war peace episodes between 1990 and 2014, we find that (1) peacekeeping is only one important component of effective post-conflict support, (2) the largest share of peaceful cases can be explained by support for politics and governance, (3) only combined international efforts across all types of support can address difficult contexts, and (4) countries neglected by the international community are highly prone to experiencing conflict recurrence. Three case studies shed light on underlying causal mechanisms.

Peace, security and development in post-conflict environments

2005

Abstract This article presents a critical overview of the contemporary practice of post-conflict peacebuilding (PCPB), arguing that contemporary post-conflict operations rest upon the assumption that a sophisticated social engineering approach could replace, or accelerate, a process of state formation that occurs rather more organically. Yet, PCPB is subject to the same tensions and dilemmas as the process of state formation.

Shaping peace: an investigation of the mechanisms underlying post- conflict peacebuilding

Peace, Conflict & Development, 2016

What shapes peace, and how can peace be successfully built in those countries affected by armed conflict? This paper examines peacebuilding in the aftermath of civil wars in order to identify the conditions for post-conflict peace. The field of civil war research is characterised by case studies, comparative analyses and quantitative research, which relate relatively little to each other. Furthermore, the complex dynamics of peacebuilding have hardly been investigated so far. Thus, the question remains of how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace in post-conflict societies. Therefore, it is necessary to capture the dynamics of post-conflict peace. This paper aims at helping to narrow these research gaps by 1) presenting the benefits of set-theoretic methods for peace and conflict studies; 2) identifying remote conflict environment factors and proximate peacebuilding factors which have an influence on the peacebuilding process and 3) proposing a set-theoretic multi-method research approach in order to identify the causal structures and mechanisms underlying the complex realm of post-conflict peacebuilding. By implementing this transparent and systematic comparative approach, it will become possible to discover the dynamics of post-conflict peace.

An analysis of post-conflict stabilization

Department for International Development of the United Kingdom , 2015

This project is concerned with explaining why peace endures in countries that have experienced a civil war. A statistical analysis (Cox Proportional Hazard models) was employed to identify factors that contribute significantly to the duration of peace. Six qualitative case studies of post-conflict peace stabilization were also produced and examined alongside the regression results. The main findings are: • The duration of peace is difficult to explain. Many variables are insignificant in the regressions. • The outcome of the conflict is significant: military victories, especially by Governments, last longer than other outcomes. • Settlements are more likely to break down than military victories. • UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) variables (dummy, treatment, total number of uniformed personnel, troops, type of mission) are not significant. • Settlements that are buttressed by UNPKOs are less likely to break down. • The case studies provide important additional insights and identify a number of factors that were important for the consolidation of peace. Many of these variables are difficult if not impossible to measure using statistical methods either because the data are not available/reliable or because the variables elude measurement. This is a report for the Department for International Development of the United Kingdom. (co-authors Richard Caplan, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, and Anke Hoeffler, Department of Economics, University of Oxford). (https://www.gov.uk/dfid-research-outputs/an-analysis-of-post-conflict-stabilization).

Responsible reconstruction after war: meeting local needs for building peace

Contemporary peacebuilding operations are often mandated to rebuild ‘collapsed’ or weak states and have a unique opportunity to exert far reaching influence in their reconstruction. The responsibility to help secure peaceful transformations and longer term stability is therefore profound. This article explores the issue of efficacy and propriety in reconstruction programming and draws from field work in Sierra Leone - a rare example of ‘success’ for international partners in peacebuilding missions. The assertion is made that, despite the euphoria over the mission in Sierra Leone, the peacebuilding operations were more about the mechanics of statebuilding than the local politics of building peace and that, despite the claims of liberal peacebuilders, there was a distinct disconnect between the policy rhetoric and the policy practice. The argument is put that the pressing local concern of giving citizens a stake in government was not best served in the reconstruction project because the wider and more influential objectives of the peacebuilding mission were more to do with meeting international goals than local aspirations. This has come at the cost of exploiting a unique opportunity to think more creatively about the kind of state structures which could better help address the main challenges for sustainable peace facing postwar states like Sierra Leone.