Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests (original) (raw)

Abstract

This paper characterizes the business cycle as a recurring Markov chain for a broad set of developed and developing countries. The objective is to understand differences in cyclical phenomena across a broad range of countries based on the behavior of two key economic times series – industrial production and employment. The Markov chain approach is a parsimonious approach that allows

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