Risk stratification models in elderly patients: recalibrating or remodeling? (original) (raw)

Acta cardiologica, 2013

Abstract

Risk stratification models perform poorly regarding elderly patients. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Italian Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Outcome Project (ItCABG) model and the logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (LogEuroSCORE) model by age group to build a model specifically for elderly patients. Data from the ItCABG and Mattone Outcome-BYPASS study (MO-BYPASS) have been used. ItCABG and LogEuroSCORE models were applied to the ItCABG population (n = 34,310) stratified by four age classes: < 60, 60-69, 70-79, > or = 80 years. Each model's ability to predict 30-day mortality was assessed for accuracy (Brier score and pseudo-R2), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, X(H-L)) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC) in age classes. To estimate the elderly risk function a logistic regression was performed on 2,255 octogenarian patients from ItCABG and MO-BYPASS. Elderly model's performance ...

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