European summer surface ozone 1990–2100 (original) (raw)
Related papers
A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2012
The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 2000-2009 and 2040-2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr −1 for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region. In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily max-imum show negative changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles indicating that climate impacts on O 3 could be especially important in connection with extreme summer events.
AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 2009
We used an off-line, regional, model of atmospheric transport and chemistry to investigate current and future levels of near-surface ozone and accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb(v) (AOT40) in Europe. To describe the current situation and enable an evaluation of the model's performance we simulated a number of years around 2000. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to possible emission changes in Europe, the model was run with the meteorology of the early 2000s and precursor emissions from a set of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) emissions scenarios. By extrapolation of the observed increase in near-surface O 3 at coastal locations in northwest Europe we constructed model boundaries that were used to simulate the impact of increasing hemispheric background in 2020. To assess changes in ozone concentrations due to climate change, the model was run with recent (2000) emissions but using meteorology from a regional climate model simulating a control ) and a future (2021-2050) climate.
Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on European Ozone Levels
Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 2013
The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impact of future climate change on ozone air quality in Europe. To provide a full assessment, simulations with the global chemical transport model GEOS-CHEM driven by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM) are conducted. To isolate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions four types of simulations are performed: (1) present-day climate and emissions (2) future climate following the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario and present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors (3) present-day climate and future emissions and (4) future climate and future emissions. Results indicate that climate change impact on its own leads to an increase of less than 3 ppb in western and central Europe whereas decreases are evident for the rest of the areas with the highest (about 2.5 ppb) in southeastern Europe (Italy, Greece). Increases are attributed to the increases of isoprene biogenic emissions due to increasing temperatures whereas decreases are associated with the increase of water vapor over sea which tends to decrease the lifetime of ozone as well as the increased wind speeds in the 2050 climate. When future emissions are implemented in the future climate simulations, the greatest increases are seen in the southwest and southeast Mediterranean (about 16 ppb) due to the increased isoprene biogenic emissions under higher levels of NO x in the model. Decreases up to 2 ppb of ozone are shown for France, Switzerland, Northern Italy and northern Europe.
Climate change and future ozone concentrations in high resolution over Europe
In this study a methodology is developed that applies the ozone concentration change signal from a global climate-chemical modeling system with a coarse horizontal resolution to a finer resolution. To this aim simulations with two different configurations of the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model are conducted a) driven from the GISS III general circulation model (4 o x 5 o ) for a present (1999)(2000)(2001) and a future (2049-2051) period and b) driven by assimilated meteorological data (GEOS, 0.5 o x 0.667 o ) for the year 2005. Results indicate highest increases between the future and the reference period in the north west and the south west Europe for both the average mean (~ 5 ppb) and average daily maximum ozone concentrations (~ 10 ppb) whereas the highest decreases (~ 4-6 ppb) are shown in the south East Europe for the same statistical targets. Moreover, these results are of the same sign to the results of the global climate-chemical modelling system in the North-west and the South-east Europe. Nevertheless changes in the GISS/GEOS-CHEM between the future and the present climate are in the range of ± 2 ppb and ± 3 ppb for the average mean and the average daily maximum ozone concentrations respectively.
Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe
Atmospheric Environment, 2005
The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition. r
To assess the effect of anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols on climates with todays and future greenhouse gas concentrations, we have run a set of 50 year simulations with CCM-Oslo coupled to a slab ocean model. CCM-Oslo is an extended version of the global climate model NCAR CCM3.2. When aerosol emissions are changed from preindustrial or present-day values to projected 2100 values, the most pronounced climate signal is a change in the intertropical convergence zone and the south paci�c convergence zone, where precipitation is enhanced in the tropics south of the Equator. Other changes due to aerosols from present-day to 2100 emissions are partly counteracted or masked by the projected increase in greenhouse gases, here represented by doubled CO2 concentrations. With both effects taken into account, temperature increases the most (up to about 4±C) in Central and South Europe, and in the Arctic. Precipitation increases signi�cantly in the north and east of Europe (up to about 20...
Statistical estimations of the number of future ozone exceedances due to climate change in Europe
A statistical model to examine the potential impact of increasing future temperatures due to climate change on ozone exceedances (days with daily maximum 8 h average ≥ 60 ppb) is developed for Europe. We employ gridded observed daily maximum temperatures and hourly ozone observations from nonurban stations across Europe, together with daily maximum temperatures for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 from three regional climate models, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. A rotated principal components analysis is applied to the ozone stations yielding five principal components, which divide the study domain in five subregions. The historical ozone-temperature relationship is examined and then used to provide estimates of future ozone exceedance days under current emissions and under the assumption that this relationship will retain its main characteristics. Results suggest that increases in the upper temperature percentiles lead to statistically significant increases (95% statistical significance level) of the ozone exceedances for both future periods. The greatest average increases depending on the particular regional climate model range from 5 to 12 extra ozone days/yr for 2021-2050 and from 16 to 25 for 2071-2100, in southeast Europe. The lowest average increases range from 0 to 2 extra ozone days/yr for 2021-2050 and from 2 to 4 for 2071-2100 and are seen in northwest Europe. The simulations with the dynamical Goddard Institute of Space Studies/GEOS-CHEM climate chemistry modeling system shows decreases instead of increases in eastern Europe, higher increases in northwest Europe, whereas for the other subregions similar results to the statistical model are obtained.
Future global tropospheric ozone changes and impact on European air quality
Geophysical Research Letters, 2006
1] A global chemistry climate model is used in conjunction with a regional chemistry-transport model dedicated to air quality studies to investigate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes, under several scenarios, on western European summertime surface O 3 levels in 2030. The implementation of presently decided emission control legislation in the individual countries worldwide leads to a geographically heterogeneous impact on summertime surface O 3 levels over Europe. A decrease of the averaged O 3 mixing ratio reaching À3 ppbv is predicted in southern areas whereas an increase reaching up 4 ppbv is calculated in northwestern Europe. The benefit of European emission control measures is found to be significantly counterbalanced by increasing global O 3 levels and subsequent long range transport since both are of the same magnitude (up to 4 ppbv) but opposite in sign. However, the net effect of both global and European emission changes is a significant decrease of O 3 extreme episodes during summertime. Citation: Szopa, S., D. A.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 2014
Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the near future (2026-2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O 3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34 observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing 10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O 3 concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to less O 3 titration by reduced NO x emissions. Applying an alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface O 3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a 25 % decrease of these peak episodes.