Meaningful choices, political supply, and institutional effectiveness (original) (raw)
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Perspectives on Whether or Not to Vote and on the Complexity of Democratic Elections
Atlantic Economic Journal, 2016
Within the context of current political and economic realities, several perspectives on voting experiences, voter behavior and turnout, and the complexity of the election process are provided in this special section of the Atlantic Economic Journal. The first study by Hansen, Shughart, and Yonk examines the controversial 2015 Greek referendum. In particular, on July 5, 2015, Greek citizens voted on whether their country should accept the terms of austerity offered by the European Union (EU) for a bailout from the country's financial crisis. With an overall turnout rate of 62.5%, 61.3% of those voting voted "no." While a majority of voters in every district opposed the bailout's terms, the margin against the proposed austerity measures ranged from 51.2% in Lakonia to 73.8% in Chania. This study explores whether political parties influenced voters' decisions to accept or reject the EU's budgetary reforms. The study examines whether party platforms are merely "cheap talk" or are salient in determining electoral outcomes. Formal hypothesis testing is undertaken at the voting district level. The key independent variable is party influence, which is measured by party vote shares in the nationwide election held in January 2015. The dependent variable is the percentage that voted "no" to austerity on July 5, 2015 in each of Greece's 56 electoral districts. The model controls for average age and the unemployment rate across regions, as well as the fraction of firsttime voters in each electoral district. Empirical estimation implies that a pro-austerity party (New Democracy) was a significant factor impacting the results of the referendum. This research finding bolsters the claim that political parties can shape electoral outcomes on questions decided via direct democracy. A substantial literature finds an interaction between economic and political institutions, suggesting that more market-oriented economic institutions tend to enhance the durability of
Political institutions, voter turnout, and policy outcomes
European Journal of Political Economy, 2012
We question whether the impact of constitutions on economic outcomes (Persson and Tabellini, 2004) is direct. We show that voter turnout is a channel through which forms of government a¤ect economic policies. We provide evidence of the existence of two relationships: the …rst links constitutions to voter turnout; the second connects voter turnout to policy outcomes. Presidential regimes are found to induce less voter participation in national elections. We then analyze the impact of constitutional variables and voter participation in shaping …scal policies. Forms of governments lose their explanatory power once participation is accounted for. Higher participation induces an increase in government expenditure, total revenues and welfare state spending. We conclude that forms of government a¤ect policy outcomes through electoral participation.
Electoral Studies, 2008
Democratic theory suggests that a nation's electoral system should influence the level of voter turnout. However, the empirical evidence for this relationship is mixed. These weak findings are partially due to insufficient attention to measurement and sampling issues. Concerning measurement, many studies examine the percent of registered citizens that turn out to vote, a measure that unnecessarily distorts the effect of electoral system. Concerning samples, electoral systems will have a larger impact on turnout in more fully democratic countries, given that the vote itself is more meaningful in a full democracy. Taking into account these distinctions, electoral systems in fact have a strongly significant effect on turnout in fully democratic countries, while having relatively little effect in partially democratic countries.
Confronting Political--Economic Theories of Voting with Evidence
Political Analysis, 2001
This paper illustrates one strategy for testing a theory of economic influences on voting. We use a competitive equilibrium model of the economy to determine the impact of an individual's economic position on his or her economic interests and, ultimately, political interests. We then test whether this impact is observed in voting behavior, addressing the resulting specification and estimation problems in the context of U.S. presidential election data. Our empirical results suggest that, despite these formidable problems, we can usefully connect political-economic models and discrete-choice (probit) models of voting.
Issue voting under different institutional contexts
Paper presented at the Nordic …, 2005
Reykjavik, Iceland Stefan Dahlberg, Ph. D-student. Göteborg University. stefan.dahlberg@pol.gu.se +46 (0)31 773 46 86 Henrik Oscarsson, Associate Professor. Göteborg University. henrik.oscarsson@pol.gu.se +46 (0)31 773 46 66 Daniel Berlin, Ph. D-student. Göteborg University. Daniel.berlin@pol.gu.se +46 (0)31 773 46 00 Abstract 2
Political Research Quarterly, 2018
Cross-national studies of turnout find that compulsory voting has the strongest impact on participation, boosting turnout by 10 to 18 percent. We argue that in the absence of compulsory voting, other institutional factors such as small district size, strong electoral competition, and moderate candidate fragmentation may be similarly effective at mobilizing turnout. Where voting is mandatory, these factors should instead primarily influence how people vote once they are at the polls—diminishing levels of invalid voting, and consequently increasing effective turnout. We take advantage of the abolition of compulsory voting in Chile to test our expectations immediately before and after reform, in the exact same electoral districts. Using this unique subnational research design, we leverage data from more than 1,000 mayoral elections over the course of three electoral cycles and across 345 municipalities to examine patterns of turnout and invalid voting. Results show that small district ...
The dynamics of electoral participation
Comparing democracies, 2002
Participation is the lifeblood of democracy, involving different numbers of people in different activities at different times. Maintaining viable party organizations requires the commitment of a few people over a considerable period. Campaigning, lobbying, or protesting require a greater commitment by more people, but over a shorter period. Voting requires a minimum commitment for a brief period, but involves by far the greatest number of people. In a book primarily about elections it seems natural to focus on voting. Indeed, the health of a democracy is often seen in terms of its level of turnout.
The impact of turnout on electoral choices: an econometric analysis of the French case
Electoral Studies, 2000
The rational choice theory of abstention and turnout has focused on the "paradox of [not] voting". Because of this focalization, other important problems have been left out, notably the possibility that electoral results are dependent on the number and characteristics of those who decide to vote. This question can be dealt with only within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Such a model is built and estimated on French data. The results are clear. Not only is interdependence strong, but it also depends on the partisan affiliation of the incumbent (increasing/decreasing participation benefits/hurts the left-wing coalition). The empirical results also confirm that voting is not just an instrumental activity but also a means for expressive and signaling actions. : S 0 2 6 1 -3 7 9 4 ( 99 )0 0 0 5 8 -X