The Prediction of Criminal Recidivism in Juveniles (original) (raw)
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The Prediction of Criminal Recidivism in Juveniles: A Meta-Analysis
Criminal Justice and Behavior, 2001
We used meta-analysis to identify variables that are most strongly associated with recidivism rates among juvenile offenders for two outcomes: sexual reoffending and violent reoffending. A total of 9 published studies representing 1,160 participants met inclusion criteria for sexual reoffending among juveniles. Among studies examining violent juvenile reoffending, a total of 4 studies, representing 380 participants, met inclusion criteria. For sexual offense recidivism, predictor variables were grouped into three categories: 1) offense history variables, 2) family/social factors, and 3) intervention variables. Among studies examining violent juvenile offenders, only one used violent reoffending as an outcome variable; the remaining studies focused on any reoffending among violent juvenile offenders. For the "any recidivism" outcome among violent non-sexual offenders, only a single variable could be compared among studies -a composite variable, encompassing various treatment interventions, which was created for this meta-analysis. Effect sizes were calculated for this variable for both sexual and violent juvenile offenders, respectively. For juvenile sexual reoffending, predictors were compared within and across each of the three categories for their impact on reducing recidivism.
Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 2010
Background There has been a lot of research on risk factors for recidivism among juvenile offenders, in general, and on individual risk factors, but less focus on subgroups of serious juvenile offenders and prediction of recidivism within these.Objective To find an optimal classification of risk items and to test the predictive value of the resultant factors with respect to severity of recidivism among serious juvenile offenders.Method Seventy static and dynamic risk factors in 1154 juvenile offenders were registered with the Juvenile Forensic Profile. Recidivism data were collected on 728 of these offenders with a time at risk of at least 2 years. After factor analysis, independent sample t-tests were used to indicate differences between recidivists and non-recidivists. Logistic multiple linear regression analyses were used to test the potential predictive value of the factors for violent or serious recidivism.Results A nine-factor solution best accounted for the data. The factors were: antisocial behaviour during treatment, sexual problems, family problems, axis-1 psychopathology, offence characteristics, conscience and empathy, intellectual and social capacities, social network, and substance abuse. Regression analysis showed that the factors antisocial behaviour during treatment, family problems and axis-1 psychopathology were associated with seriousness of recidivism.Conclusions and implications for practice The significance of family problems and antisocial behaviour during treatments suggest that specific attention to these factors may be important in reducing recidivism. The fact that antisocial behaviour during treatment consists mainly of dynamic risk factors is hopeful as these can be influenced by treatment. Consideration of young offenders by subgroup rather than as a homogenous population is likely to yield the best information about risk of serious re-offending and the management of that risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Examining Longitudinal Data of Juvenile Delinquents in Rock Hill, SC
2017
Examining factors that contribute to the initiation, continuation, and desistance of criminal activities is crucial in determining how the criminal justice system can be reformed in an effort to decrease recidivism rates, as well as halt the initiation of juveniles into the criminal realm in the first place. This study examined longitudinal data from the daily reports of the Rock Hill Police Department, as organized by the Crime Mapping Division. The study examines juvenile suspects between the ages of 10-17 during 2003-2007. Wave One looked at subjects ages 10-13 in 2003/2004. Wave Two looked at subjects ages 12-14 in 2005/2006, and Wave Three looked at subjects ages 15-17 in 2007/2008.Using the concepts of Criminal Careers and recidivism, the goal was to examine continuation or desistance of criminal behavior over six years. Indicators of race, gender, residence in gang areas, hotspots, as well as residence in a single dwelling or an apartment were used to predict continued crimin...
Changes in the relative importance of dynamic risk factors for recidivism during adolescence
International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology, 2012
This study examined which dynamic risk factors for recidivism play an important role during adolescence. The sample consisted of 13,613 American juveniles who had committed a criminal offense. The results showed that the importance of almost all dynamic risk factors, both in the social environment domain (school, family, relationships) and in the individual domain (attitude, skills, aggressiveness), decreased as juveniles grew older. Therefore, the potential effect of an intervention aimed at these factors will also decrease as juveniles grow older. The relative importance of the risk factors also changed: In early adolescence, risk factors in the family domain showed the strongest association with recidivism, whereas in late adolescence risk factors in the attitude, relationships, and school domain were more strongly related to recidivism. These results suggest that the focus of an intervention needs to be attuned to the age of the juvenile to achieve the maximum potential effect o...
Trends in Juvenile Delinquency from a Criminal Psychology and Criminology Perspective
Magyar Rendészet
Juvenile crime has been showing a downward trend for years both in Hungary and internationally. Despite this, many young people are still caught by the authorities. In the study, we use the analysis of Hungarian and international statistical data to see what structural changes have occurred in the structure of crime in the past period. We assume that the – temporarily – punishable deviant behaviour of the child and juvenile population, in the absence of a suitable treatment system, turns from episodic perpetration into a series of acts. We will examine how the social, economic, demographic and legislative background influences juvenile delinquency and which psychological explanations help to understand and manage the path leading to the development of the situation. It is also important to keep technological changes in mind, since there are an increasing number of juveniles among the perpetrators of cybercrimes. Data quality and statistical diversity also present challenges to rese...
Recidivism in subgroups of serious juvenile offenders: Different profiles, different risks?
Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health, 2012
Background Research has shown that the treatment of juvenile offenders is most effective when it takes into account the possible risk factors for re-offending. It may be asked whether juvenile offenders can be treated as one homogeneous group, or, if they are divisible into subgroups, whether different risk factors are predictive of recidivism.
CRIMINALITY AMONG YOUTH AND RECIDIVISM
The Journal of Development Practice, 2017
Criminality as a form of human behaviour is a phenomenon deserving continued study and research to enhance common weal, or at least to ensure trouble free society. The question of "nature" and "nurture", or role of biological factors and environmental factors in influencing human behaviour is relevant in the discussion of criminality as well. The rising trend of "youth in crime" calls for proper diagnosis of this social illness and search for viable remedies. It is against this background that the tendency of "young offenders" in the process of correction or having completed correctional treatment to fall back into crime is being studied. Is this on account of biological factors or has it more to do with the environment? Or is the correctional procedure itself the unwitting culprit criminalizing a "First Time Young Offender"? What are the ways and means by which the correctional procedure can be made meaningful, reforming and re-integrative? Focusing on these research questions, primary data on "Criminality among Youth and Recidivism" was gathered from the Young Offenders residing in Ernakulam District (Kochi Corporation area) of Kerala state, who have served a term in the prison in the age group of 18 to 35 years, police officials and prison staff and secondary sources of data were books, journals, newspaper articles, records and websites. In an attempt to identify the factors that generate and perpetuate youth criminality, the study focused on four major areas-(a) Socioeconomic background in the criminal behaviour of youth (b) Nature and recurrence of crime among youth (c) The influence of Alcohol/ Drugs in inducing criminal behaviour (d) The response of the police personnel regarding the first time offenders and their correction. The study is descriptive in nature and the tools administered were Interview schedule for the youth and interview Guides for the correction staff. The study revealed the major factors that contributed to the criminality of individuals. Evidences of negligence in the protection of human rights and failure in giving psychological support services have detrimentally affected the reformative behaviour of the offenders. The findings highlight the need for discussing the How"s and Why"s of recidivism and is really an eye-opener on how our correctional institutions become a breeding ground for intense criminalities. Article attempts to point out the implications for professional social work practice in criminal justice and reformation.