Use of Local Oceanographic Information to Predict Dengue in Ecuador (original) (raw)

Abstract

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, has increased in distribution, prevalence and severity throughout the tropics and subtropics. In this study, we explore the use of local oceanographic variables to predict dengue transmission in the southern coastal of Ecuador. We hypothesize that local oceanographic conditions, such as invasion of warmer water masses from the Panamá Bay and strengthening of the cold Humboldt Current, interact with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to influence local climate and dengue transmission. We evaluated the influence of local oceanographic variables (sea surface (SST) and subsurface temperature in front of Puerto Bolívar and other coastal localities, ENSO, and local climate) on the dengue standardized morbidity ratio of El Oro Province (monthly SMR, 1995-2013). We found that precipitation in Machala City, Oceanic Niño Index – ONI 3.4 (3-month lag), SST at Puerto Bolívar (6-month lag) and sea subsurface temperature (15 m depth) registered i...

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