Prediction of vulnerability of field crops production in South-East region of Macedonia affected by climate changes (original) (raw)
Related papers
2016
This work was focused on the assessment of changes occurring on winter wheat and sunflower production in South East (SE) region of Macedonia. The forecasts suggest that without adaptation, the winter wheat biomass will decrease for 23% in 2025 and 27% in 2050, as same as the yield where reduction is between 21 and 25% respectively. For sunflower the reduction in yield will be 30% in 2025 and up to 40% in 2050. The simulations presented indicate that delayed of sowing date (middle until end of November) in combination with sprinkler irrigation allowed to maximize the yield of winter wheat. Irrigation with sprinklers 4 times with norm of 50 mm between 159 and 217 day of the year gave the highest yield of sunflower and would be probably the most appropriate responses to offset the negative effects of a potential increase in temperature which are expected in the period 2025 – 2050.
The predicted impact of climate change on maize production in Northern Serbia
Maydica, 2021
The projected climate change is expected to have detrimental impact on agricultural production in Northern Serbia, which imposes the need to develop mitigation strategies that will provide a stable yield and income of growing plants in the coming years. Maize is the most important crop in Serbia which occupies the largest sown area. In the present study, the aim was to determine how the average yield of rainfed maize will change in near future (2001-2030) relative to the present and if the currently or higher irrigation rate can be used as a strategy to mitigate the effect of predicted weather scenario on maize yield. AquaCrop model was calibrated with the data derived from the field experiment with rainfed and irrigated maize (2015-2018) (relative standard error ≤ 5% in rainfed and ≤ 7.3% in the irrigated trial), which was used for the simulation of maize yield. The results of the validation showed very good performance of the model (root mean square error of 0.22 and 0.16 was obtained for rainfed and irrigated maize, respectively). The model predicts the loss of maize yield of 15% with respect to maize yield from the experiment. In the predicted scenario, irrigation with average irrigation rate of 200 mm applied in the region of Northern Serbia is expected to increase the yield of maize by approximately 28%. Increased irrigation rate (250 and 300 mm) will reduce the yield of maize in comparison to the current one, thus the creation of stable maize hybrids with the increased water use efficiency should be considered as a strategy for alleviating climate change effect on maize production in the near future.
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Maize Production in Serbia
Atmosphere
Climate factors have an impact on plant life cycle, yield, productivity, economy and profitability of agricultural production. There are not a lot of studies on understanding of influence of climate factors variation on maize yield in agro-ecological conditions of Serbia. The aim of this paper is analysis of variation of climatic factors over a long-time period, as well as assessment of impact of the examined climate parameters on maize yield in two localities in the Republic of Serbia. For the analysis of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, sunshine, humidity) in the region of Central Serbia and Vojvodina, the data of meteorological stations Kragujevac and Sombor during two thirty-year periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) were used. In order to determine the existence and strength of the relationship between the observed climatic factors and maize yield, a correlation analysis of these indicators for the period 2005–2020 years, was performed. In the period 1991–2020, the ave...
Climate Change Impact on Viticulture in Povardarie Region of Macedonia – Assesment and Adaptation
The purpose of the simulations was to determine the effects on grape production of applying different amounts of irrigation water and different reductions in temperatures over a period of 50 years (2000 – 2050), as compared to not implementing any adaptation measures over the same period. From the simulations involving irrigation, it can be concluded that irrigation is necessary in intensive viticulture for maintaining plants for a long period as better as possible and for improving quality with a satisfactory yield. Without irrigation, vines face the threat of extinction. Comparing the simulations involving UV nets to those without UV nets, the conclusion is that the use of UV nets (which will cause a decrease in temperature of 2 0C), has a positive effect on the yields of both table grapes and wine grapes. Decreasing the temperature by 5 0C carries the risk of delaying the start of the ripening of the grapes, delaying harvesting and reducing yields.
Atmosphere
The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with pro...
The impact of climate change on the corn yield in Serbia
Acta Agriculturae Serbica, 2020
The aim of the paper is to show the impact of climate factors on the corn yield in Serbia. Contemporary climate reports show that climate is changing, and the emission of greenhouse gases is one of the main causes of climate change. In three different locations (West Backa District, Sumadija District and Nisava District) different climatic conditions and corn yield were analyzed for the period from 1991 to 2011. In the research process, the model of multiple linear regression and Pearson coefficient of correlation was applied. Obtained results has shown that there is a high correlation between parameters of climate conditions and variance of corn yield. A small amount of precipitation quantity and high maximum values of temperatures in the vegetation period influenced the decrease in yield, which was particularly noticed during the period from 2000 to 2007. A lower yield of corn was established compared to the average yield in all three observed districts, in the Sumadija district, ...
The potential impacts of climate change on crops in Albania Case study 'Shkodra region
2018
Recent studies have shown how climate change has affected agriculture sector, increasing difficulties in farm management and food security. Intensity of rainfall and melting snow in winter as well as heat waves, have caused a lot of damages to rural households in the last decades. According to the IPCC (2014), climate change has brought more negative impacts than positive impacts to most of the crops. This paper states the facts that; even in the local areas in Albania, average temperature has increased while average precipitation has decreased as well as increase in extreme weather events throughout the decades. It also shows some main aspects of the impacts of temperatures and precipitation in maize yield in the Shkodra region, located in northwest of Albania. Historical regional data from 1961 to 2010 are obtained for both climate variables and maize yield. In addition to, the perceptions of 185 farmers interviewed there, were other sources in identifying climate impacts in the r...
2014
Considering the scale of global warming, we make an attempt to assess the impact of climate change on Macedonian agriculture. Farmers' adaptation is taken into account by using an alternative specification of the Ricardian model based on the use of aridity indices to capture the non-linear response of farmland values to temperature and precipitation. Econometric results indicate that winter and spring aridity indices influence unit gross returns of crop farms. A decomposition analysis of aridity indices between temperatures and precipitations results in the derivation or marginal responses of unit gross returns of crop farms to seasonal temperatures and precipitations.