Low mortality risk but high loss to follow-up among patients in the Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme (original) (raw)
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Journal of the International AIDS Society
Introduction: Lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves health outcomes for HIV-positive individuals, but is jeopardized by irregular clinic attendance and hence poor adherence. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is typically defined retrospectively but this may lead to biased inferences. We assessed incidence of and factors associated with LTFU, prospectively and accounting for recurrent LTFU episodes, in the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO) of HIV-positive persons in rural Tanzania. Methods: We included adults (≥15 years) enrolled in 2005 to 2016, regardless of ART status, with follow-up through April 2017. LTFU was defined as >60 days late for a scheduled appointment. Participants could experience multiple LTFU episodes. We performed analyses based on the first (prospective) and last (retrospective) events observed during follow-up, and accounting for recurrent LTFU episodes. Time to LTFU was estimated using cumulative incidence functions. We assessed factors associated with LTFU using cause-specific proportional hazards, marginal means/rates, and Prentice, Williams and Peterson models. Results: Among 8087 participants (65% female, 60% aged ≥35 years, 42% WHO stage 3/4, and 47% CD4 count <200 cells/ mm 3 ), there were 8140 LTFU episodes, after which there were 2483 (31%) returns to care. One-year LTFU probabilities were 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.40, 0.42) and 0.21 (0.20, 0.22) considering the first and last events respectively. Factors associated with LTFU were broadly consistent across different models: being male, younger age, never married, living far from the clinic, not having an HIV-positive partner, lower BMI, advanced WHO stage, not having tuberculosis, and shorter time since ART initiation. Associations between LTFU and pregnancy, CD4 count, and enrolment year depended on the analysis approach. Conclusions: LTFU episodes were common and prompt tracing efforts are urgently needed. We identified socio-demographic and clinical characteristics associated with LTFU that can be used to target tracing efforts and to help inform the design of appropriate interventions. Incidence of and risk factors for LTFU differed based on the LTFU definition applied, highlighting the importance of appropriately accounting for recurrent LTFU episodes. We recommend using a prospective definition of LTFU combined with recurrent event analyses in cohorts where repeated interruptions in care are common.
ISRN AIDS, 2012
Background. There has been a rapid scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia since 2005. We aimed to evaluate mortality, loss to followup, and retention in care at HIV Clinic, University of Gondar Hospital, north-west Ethiopia. Method. A retrospective patient chart record analysis was performed on adult AIDS patients enrolled in the treatment program starting from 1 March 2005. We performed survival analysis to determine, mortality, loss to followup and retention in care. Results. A total of 3012 AIDS patients were enrolled in the ART Program between March 2005 and August 2010. At the end of the 66 months of the program initiation, 61.4% of the patients were retained on treatment, 10.4% died, and 31.4% were lost to followup. Fifty-six percent of the deaths and 46% of those lost to followup occurred in the first year of treatment. Male gender (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) was 3.26; 95% CI: 2.19-4.88); CD4 count ≤200 cells/µL (AHR 5.02; 95% CI: 2.03-12.39), tuberculosis (AHR 2.91; 95% CI: 2.11-4.02); bed-ridden functional status (AHR 12.88;) were predictors of mortality, whereas only CD4 count <200 cells/µL (HR = 1.33; 95% CI: (0.95, 1.88) and ambulatory functional status (HR = 1.65; 95% CI: (1.22, 2.23) were significantly associated with LTF. Conclusion. Loss to followup and mortality in the first year following enrollment remain a challenge for retention of patients in care. Strengthening patient monitoring can improve patient retention AIDS care.
BMC Public Health, 2013
Background: In Ethiopia, there is a growing concern about the increasing rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV programs among people waiting to start HIV treatment. Unlike other African countries, there is little information about the factors associated with LTFU among pre-antiretroviral treatment (pre-ART) patients in Ethiopia. We conducted a case-control study to investigate factors associated with pre-ART LTFU in Ethiopia. were reviewed. Patients who were "loss to follow-up" during the pre-ART period were considered to be cases and patients who were "in care" during the pre-ART period were controls. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore factors associated with pre-ART LTFU. Results: In multivariable analyses, the following factors were found to be independently associated with pre-ART LTFU: male gender [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.00 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.46)], higher baseline CD4 cell count (251-300 cells/μl [AOR = 2.64 (95% CI: 1.05, 6.65)], 301-350 cells/μl [AOR = 5.21 (95% CI: 1.94, 13.99)], and >350 cells/μl [AOR = 12.10 (95% CI: 6.33, 23.12)] compared to CD4 cell count of ≤200 cells/μl) and less advanced disease stage (WHO stage I [AOR = 2.81 (95% CI: 1.15, 6.91)] compared to WHO stage IV). Married patients [AOR = 0.39 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.79)] had reduced odds of being LTFU. In addition, patients whose next visit date was not documented on their medical chart [AOR = 241.39 (95% CI: 119.90, 485.97)] were more likely to be LTFU.
International Journal of HIV/AIDS Prevention, Education and Behavioural Science, 2023
Introduction: The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of attrition (death and lost to follow-up) among patients living with HIV on ART and to identify key predictors of this attrition. It also described the reasons why some patients are lost to follow-up. Methods: This was a historical cohort study of patients living with HIV put on ART between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2020 in 8 large cohort sites in Conakry. An additional cross-sectional survey in the form of an investigation was conducted to describe the final status of patients reported lost to follow-up by the sites, as well as to describe the reasons for their loss to follow-up. Kaplan Meier techniques were used to estimate cumulative incidence, and the multivariate Cox proportional model was used to identify predictors of attrition. Results: The cumulative incidence of attrition was 19.50 over a median follow-up time of 2.5 years, for an overall attrition rate of 7.79 years per 100 person-years. Factors significantly associated with attrition were: Age 15-24 years [aHR = 2.212; 95% CI (1.321-3.704)], age >35 years [aHR = 1.723; 95% CI (1.041-2.852)], viral load >100,000 copies/ml [aHR = 2.056; 95% CI (1.668-2.534)], patients not on the 3month or 6-month appointment system [aHR = 3.031; 95% CI (2.603-3.531)]. Conclusion: This study showed that the incidence of attrition increases with increasing follow-up time. Investigation of lost to follow-up reduced the estimated number of patients considered lost to follow-up and increased the number of deaths that were previously underreported. A prospective mixed study including many more variables would allow a better understanding of the attrition phenomenon among people living with HIV on ART in Guinea.
Aids Research and Therapy, 2011
Background High early mortality rate among HIV infected patients following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource limited settings may indicate high pre-treatment mortality among ART-eligible patients. There is dearth of data on pre-treatment mortality in ART programmes in sub-Sahara Africa. This study aims to determine pre-treatment mortality rate and predictors of pre-treatment mortality among ART-eligible adult patients in a West Africa clinic-based cohort. Methods All HIV-infected patients aged 15 years or older eligible for ART between June 2004 and September 2009 were included in the analysis. Assessment for eligibility was based on the Gambia ART guideline. Survival following ART-eligibility was determined by Kaplan-Meier estimates and predictors of pre-treatment mortality determined by Cox proportional hazard models. Result Overall, 790 patients were assessed as eligible for ART based on their clinical and/or immunological status among whom 510 (64.6%) started treatment, 26 (3.3%) requested transfer to another health facility, 136 (17.2%) and 118 (14.9%) were lost to follow-up and died respectively without starting ART. ART-eligible patients who died or were lost to follow-up were more likely to be male or to have a CD4 T-cell count < 100 cells/μL, while patients in WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 were more likely to die without starting treatment. The overall pre-treatment mortality rate was 21.9 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 18.3 - 26.2) and the rate for the composite end point of death or loss to follow-up was 47.1 per 100 person-years (95% CI 41.6 - 53.2). Independent predictors of pre-treatment mortality were CD4 T-cell count <100 cells/μL (adjusted Hazard ratio [AHR] 3.71; 95%CI 2.54 - 5.41) and WHO stage 3 or 4 disease (AHR 1.91; 95% CI 1.12 - 3.23). Forty percent of ART-eligible patients lost to follow-up seen alive at field visit cited difficulty with the requirement of disclosing their HIV status as reason for not starting ART. Conclusion Approximately one third of ART-eligible patients did not start ART and pre-treatment mortality rate was found high among HIV infected patients in our cohort. CD4 T-cell count <100 cells/μL is the strongest independent predictor of pre-treatment mortality. The requirement to disclose HIV status as part of ART preparation counselling constitutes a huge barrier for eligible patients to access treatment.
Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare, 2023
Background: Approximately 38.4 million adult people worldwide live with HIV, of which the majority live in Africa. In Ethiopia increasing the quality of life to HIV patients and preventing HIV transmission are challenging. Even though test-and-treat strategy is applied for early enrollment to ART, poor retention and loss to follow-up are hindering the care. Objective: This study examined the incidence and predictors of loss to follow-up among adult HIV patients on ART in South Gondar governmental hospitals, September 11, 2017-September 10, 2022. Methods: A multi-facility-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted. Study subjects were assigned using simple random sampling methods by their medical record numbers. The data were entered into EPI data version 3.0.2 and exported to STATA version 17 for analysis. The Kaplan-Meier failure function was employed to determine the overall failure estimates. Cox proportional hazard model was tailored for both bi-variable and multivariable. Variables at p-value <0.05 with 95% CI were significantly associated with loss to follow-up. Results: In this study, about 559 adult HIV survivors were included, and the response rate was 98%. The mean age and standard deviation (±SD) of study subjects were 36.6±9.3 years. The incidence rate of loss to follow-up was 6.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI:
PLOS ONE
Background Retaining patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) and ensuring good adherence remain cornerstone of long-term viral suppression. In this era of test and treat (T&T) policy, ensuring that patients starting ART remain connected to HIV clinics is key to achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Currently, limited studies have evaluated the effect of early ART initiation on loss to follow up in a routine health care delivery setting. We studied the cumulative incidence, incidence rate of loss to follow up (LTFU), and factors associated with LTFU in a primary healthcare clinic that has practiced T&T since 2012. Methods We retrospectively analyzed extracted routine program data on patients who started ART from January 2012 to 4 th July 2016. We defined LTFU as failure of a patient to return to the HIV clinic for at least 90 days from the date of their last appointment. We calculated cumulative incidence, incidence rate and fitted a multivariable Cox proportion hazards regression model to determine factors associated with LTFU. Results Of the 7,553 patients included in our sample, 3,231 (42.8%) started ART within seven days following HIV diagnosis. There were 1,180 cases of LTFU observed over 15,807.7 person years at risk. The overall incidence rate (IR) of LTFU was 7.5 (95% CI, 7.1-7.9) per 100 person years of observation (pyo). Cumulative incidence of LTFU increased with duration of