Carbon Leakage with Forestation Policies (original) (raw)
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Tellus Series B-chemical and Physical Meteorology, 2009
Leakage (spillover) refers to the unintended negative (positive) consequences of forest carbon (C) management in one area on C storage elsewhere. For example, the local C storage benefit of less intensive harvesting in one area may be offset, partly or completely, by intensified harvesting elsewhere in order to meet global timber demand. We present the results of a theoretical study aimed at identifying the key factors determining leakage and spillover, as a prerequisite for more realistic numerical studies. We use a simple model of C storage in managed forest ecosystems and their wood products to derive approximate analytical expressions for the leakage induced by decreasing the harvesting frequency of existing forest, and the spillover induced by establishing new plantations, assuming a fixed total wood production from local and remote (non-local) forests combined. We find that leakage and spillover depend crucially on the growth rates, wood product lifetimes and woody litter decomposition rates of local and remote forests. In particular, our results reveal critical thresholds for leakage and spillover, beyond which effects of forest management on remote C storage exceed local effects. Order of magnitude estimates of leakage indicate its potential importance at global scales.
Deforestation as a Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Tool : Economic Issues for Consideration
2006
Tropical deforestation is a significant contributor to accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Previous estimates of GHG emissions from tropical deforestation have been in the range of 1 to 2 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year for the 1990s, equivalent to 15% to 30% of global annual GHG emissions from fossil fuels. Currently, forestry activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol are limited to afforestation and reforestation on areas that were not forested in 1990, excluding actions to avoid deforestation. However, interest in creating carbon credits for avoided deforestation was renewed after the 11 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP11) decision in late 2005 to explore approaches to reduce emissions from deforestation. This paper examines the extent of baseline deforestation and associated carbon emissions and the economic potential for incorporating reductions in deforestat...
Climatic Change, 2010
The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive—in terms of cost effectiveness—in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime.