The End of Peak Oil I Chapman (original) (raw)
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Peak Oil: Assessment, Critique of the Current Solutions, and Proposition of Alternatives
Energy and Economy are tightly bound to each other, primarily due to physical reasons. Indeed, energy is the unit measuring the quantity of transformation in a system, and the economic activities transform resources into useful goods and services. Due to transport, oil is the ultimate source of energy for a globalised economy. In this context, the peak of oil, corresponding to the moment when the global oil production reaches a maximum, and then declines, might be a critical issue. This thesis studies what the European Commission might plan in this context. In a first chapter the expectable future of oil supply is exposed. It appears that the global oil production is likely to peak before the end of the current decade. Moreover, the conventional oil production peaked in 2006, and the European production peaked in 2000 (declined by 46% in 2011). Besides, the post-peak decline rate is around 6% per year, and at least 16 out of the 20 biggest oil fields have already passed their peak (these 20 fields represent 25% of the oil production). Then, the second chapter is dedicated to the impacts of an energy shortage on the socio-economic system, and to the solutions planned. Based on the academic literature, the impacts are assessed from historical events during which societies suffered from a huge energy crunch (North Korea and Cuba after the Soviet Union demise). Furthermore, the historical oil price is analysed, especially the price elasticity (based on empirical data from EIA and World Bank). It results that the volume of oil produced is almost unresponsive to the price since 2004-5. Moreover, based on the fiscal break-even of Saudi Arabia and on the carrying capacity of China, the range of future prices is [100;120] dollars per barrel, while the carrying capacity of western societies is around 90 dollars. Finally, the chapter discusses the technological solutions (liquid fuels production from coal, gas and biomass, mainly) and their limits. Apart from the negative impacts in terms of greenhouse gases and potential scarcities (lithium, lands, coal and gas), the most problematic limit is probably the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested), which is decreasing. It means that the energy surplus available for the society is shrinking. An increasing amount of resources (energy included) is diverted for the sake of oil and gas industry. The last chapter describes the reasons why we cannot rely on decoupling and dematerialisation, to maintain economic growth while the energy supply diminishes. In particular, based on empirical data (World Bank and International Labour Organization) the absence of negative correlation between the energy consumption per capita and the share of labour force in services is evidenced. Besides, the decoupling effect has never been observed at the global scale, and the partial one is controversial. Consequently, another paradigm is proposed and briefly discussed, namely degrowth, based on the dedicated academic literature. Finally, the last section gathers some unusual proposals, which the European Commission might examine to cope with the Peak Oil, without economic growth.
Energy Policy, 2010
The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA"s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletionrate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.
Peak Oil in a Carbon Constrained World
International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 2008
The world petroleum complex has been on a treadmill, struggling to add increments of new production to keep pace with growing demand and depletion. If the oil price shock of 1979-1981 is considered an aberration due to panic inventory building, recent real oil prices are at levels not seen since the 19th century. The analysis in this review shows that geophysical models of peak oil predict a premature peaking in world oil production and a decline rate more rapid than the average 3% annual rate of decline observed in countries past peak production. This review also finds that political decisions and events play an important role in determining world oil production and that reserve additions respond to expected prices and costs. The actions of the world oil cartel, the business cycle, and the delayed response of oil demand and supply to prices indicate that the peak of conventional oil production will only be known until well after it has occurred. Despite rapid advances in output from Brazil and West Africa, crude oil production outside OPEC and Russia appears to have peaked in 2002, at least for now. Another tangible indicator of a coming peak is the expansion of unconventional oil production, which is on a collision course with efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. A clear policy direction for carbon regulation that encourages technological innovation is imperative as peak oil approaches.
Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil
Global Environmental Change, 2013
Peak Oil refers to the point in time when, as a global society, we have reached the maximum possible rate for petroleum extraction per unit of time (i.e. millions of barrels of oil per day). After this point, experts predict that demand for oil will begin outstripping supply, the oil supply will never return to its former rate, and extraction will become ever more difficult and expensive (Campbell and Laherrere, 1998; Hubbert, 1956). The underlying concept was first developed by petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert (Hubbert, 1956) and later revived by Laherrere, Campbell and Aleklett (Aleklett, 2012b; Aleklett and Campbell, 2003; Campbell and Laherrere, 1998). The latter two also introduced the term ''Peak Oil'', when they founded ASPO (the Association for the Study of Peak Oil) in 2002 (Aleklett, 2012a). Peak Oil shifts attention away from 'oil depletion' and 'stocks' to focus on declining production rates (flows) of oil, and increasing costs of production. For example, the fact that there may be as much oil in Canadian tar sands, as there is in Saudi Arabia's underground supplies, does not mean that the former can simply replace the latter. There is a fundamental difference in quality, which one could measure by their energy return on energy invested (EROI) (Hall et al., 2009) and the two parameters of quantity, i.e. stocks and flows between these two kinds of oil deposits (Kerschner, 2012b). The maximum possible daily flow rate (with a given technology) is what eventually determines the peak, which explains why the concept can also be useful in the context of renewable resources such as Peak Water (Gleick and Palaniappan, 2010; Vaughan, 2009). Improvements in extraction and refining technologies can influence flows, but this tends to lead to steeper decline curves after the peak is eventually reached. Hence the 'peak discourse' is a drastic shift in debates about resource limits, from stock depletion, as in the 1970s (e.g. Meadows et al., 1972), to maximum possible production rates (flows) (Kerschner, 2012b). One important implication of this shift is that extraction peaks occur much earlier in time than the actual depletion of resources, e.g., peak oil is currently predicted within the next decade by many whereas oil depletion at today's consumption is only expected in about 50 years (BP, 2012). Although there are some who believe that we still have more
Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity
Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................... 2 Peak Oil ............................................................................. 3 History ............................................................................. 3 Principle of Hubbert’s Peak ................................................ 3 Peak Oil in the USA .......................................................... 5 Peak Oil in the World ........................................................ 6 Personal Calculations ....................................................... 7 Oil Discoveries ................................................................. 9 Energy Return on Energy Invested .................................... 10 Latest Report of the IEA ................................................... 10 Limits to a Global Energy Transition .................................... 12 Technical Limits .............................................................. 12 Material Limits ................................................................ 14 Time Limits .................................................................... 15 Exponential Growth ............................................................ 16 Principles ....................................................................... 16 Exponential Growth of Humanity ....................................... 17 Use of Natural Resources and Emissions of Waste ............ 18 Consequences of Energy Shortages .................................... 18 An Energy Crisis means an Economic Crisis ..................... 18 Transport ........................................................................ 20 Agriculture ...................................................................... 20 Resource Wars ............................................................... 21 Die Off of Humanity ......................................................... 22 Simplified Civil Society .................................................... 23 Bibliography and Further Reading ........................................ 24 Books ............................................................................ 24 Reports from Governmental Institutions ............................. 24 Prominent Reports and Articles ........................................ 25 Websites with News and Information ................................. 25
Peak oil supply or oil not for sale?
Futures, 2013
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues.