The economic perspective of the mobile networks in Europe (original) (raw)
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Techno‐economic analysis of beyond 3G mobile technology alternatives
info, 2009
Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to show how the bulk of the mobile telecom traffic is starting to migrate towards internet and IP based services, and the choice of alternative paths is widening as new technologies from different backgrounds are emerging. This paper aims to compare some possible approaches to find out suggestions for the most feasible technology selections. Design/methodology/approach-The case study focuses on big Western European operators being in the position to choose the 3G and beyond technology track-whether continuing to the UMTS path or taking a more radical shift towards a full IP based WiMAX technology. The work includes full quantitative modeling of both cost and revenue sides, separating the network provisioning business from the service provisioning for more detailed economical analysis of the technology choices. For the revenue estimation, specific user benefit modeling has been performed against the technology related parameters. Special emphasis in this paper is on the risk and sensitivity analyses, which reveal more of the case dynamics than bare economic key figures. Findings-The UMTS/HSPA path was found to be the most beneficial and robust continuum for the European incumbent mobile operator. Basing the new data services on WiMAX technology was identified to include more risks, although for an operator not having a license for UMTS network it provides a possibility to serve the high end advanced users profitably. The challenge lies especially in the narrower terminal and user base. In the worst development scenarios, especially the network provider of WiMAX is vulnerable, as making big investments on the network. Research limitations/implications-Not all possible business cases were analyzed, so that no conclusion can be made, based on this study, on operators without wide GSM background, or WiMAX approaches of a limited scope. Practical implications-The study gives support for the operators in deciding on strategic deployment plans. Originality/value-The study provides unique information through comprehensive data gathering, analysis and forecasts, with feasible accuracy level for this kind of case study, combining both technical and business aspects of the still widely uncharted and fast developing mobile data arena.
Telecommunications Policy, 2008
This paper analyses the evolution of the mobile communications industry in the European Union. The research focuses its interest on the different roles played by the regulator in Europe and in other regions of the world (mainly the US). The diffusion of GSM was extraordinarily fast in Europe, mainly due to the adoption of a unified standard from inception. This rapid diffusion has resulted in an important competitive advantage for European operators. Interestingly, while the regulator acted similarly in the case of UMTS, the development of the latter has faced many problems and, presently, its diffusion is still low (about 5% in the EU). The paper also offers basic information on market structure that may be useful for extracting some preliminary conclusions about the degree of rivalry within the industry and the differences that can be observed between European countries. at first. 1 In retrospect, no one can doubt that this decision was inspired. After all, it has become a main European strength, so that nowadays GSM is the most extended standard in the world (with the main exception of the United States). The most important consequence of adopting this strategy in Europe is that the mobile industry has spread throughout the continent in a very short period of time, achieving penetration rates never reached by other technologies before. On the contradistinction, and in the same period of time, the US penetration rate hardly reaches 50%. 2 Another interesting aspect that has deserved considerable attention in recent years has been the launching of the third generation technology (UMTS, universal mobile telecommunications system). The differences in the systems used by European countries to allocate the licences and the huge amounts of money paid for them has been at the centre of debate for some time. However, and in spite of its promising possibilities, the development of UMTS has not been as rapid as expected and, at the beginning of 2006, GSM is still the dominant technology in the mobile world.
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Techno-economic evaluation of 3G and beyond mobile business alternatives
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Three business case scenarios in the context of emerging mobile access network technologies and business players have been studied and the economical results are presented. The aim is to cover some of the most interesting business alternatives in providing the new 3G and beyond services including cases where the operator may have an existing second-generation cellular network or not, and a license for the 3G UMTS network or not. The scenarios have been analyzed in different Western European country groups that are not exactly representative of any defined country, but rather share typical demographic characteristics. Investments and operational expenditures are identified and the results show how diverse business models and technologies lead to different revenue, cost, and profitability profiles. The business case scenarios include incumbent’s 3G evolution with UMTS compared to an alternative 3G technology deployment with mobile WiMAX, new entrant’s UMTS deployment business case, and a greenfield CDMA450 deployment business case.
08043 Summary--Perspectives Workshop: Telecommunication Economics}
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