The CDC's diabetes systems modeling project: developing a new tool for chronic disease prevention and control (original) (raw)
The analytic tools presently used for planning and evaluating health policy are not well suited to capture the dynamic complexity of chronic diseases, which involve long delays between causes and health consequences. To explore the potential of system dynamics for addressing chronic disease policy, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) commissioned a dynamic model of diabetes prevalence and complications that can be used for designing and evaluating intervention strategies. The rapid growth in diabetes in the U.S. and elsewhere has been driven by a similarly rapid growth in obesity, which is a leading risk factor. The model was developed through a series of meetings over several months with participants from the CDC Division of Diabetes Translation and other Divisions with relevant expertise. The CDC and other public health stakeholders may use the model for policy analysis at the national, state, and local levels.
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