Drought Analysis and Its Implication in Sustainable Water Resource Management in Barind Area, Bangladesh (original) (raw)

Abstract

The study analyzes drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall (MK) Trend Test in the context of the impacts of drought on groundwater table (GWT) in the Barind area, Bangladesh during the period 1971-2011. The area experienced twelve moderate to extreme agricultural droughts in the years 1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2010. Some of them coincide with El Niño events. Hydrological drought also occurred almost in the same years. However, relationship between all after drought events and El Niño is not clear. Southern and central parts of the area frequently suffer from hydrological drought, northern part is affected by agricultural drought. Trends in SPI values indicate that the area has an insignificant trend towards drought, and numbers of mild and moderate drought are increasing. GWT depth shows strong correlation with rainy season SPI values such that GWT regaining corresponds with rising SPI values and vice versa. However, 2000 onwards, GWT depth is continuously increasing even with positive SPI values. This is due to over-exploitation of groundwater and changes in cropping patterns. Agricultural practice in Barind area based on groundwater irrigation is vulnerable to drought. Hence, adaptation measures to minimize effects of drought on groundwater ought to be taken.

Figures (11)

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Fig.1. Study area with meteorological, raingauge and permanent hydrograph stations rainwater and floodwater during the monsoon results in the rise of groundwater level. After monsoon, part of the water recharged into groundwater body gets discharged into the rivers, streams and low-lying areas (Jahan et al., 2010).

Fig.1. Study area with meteorological, raingauge and permanent hydrograph stations rainwater and floodwater during the monsoon results in the rise of groundwater level. After monsoon, part of the water recharged into groundwater body gets discharged into the rivers, streams and low-lying areas (Jahan et al., 2010).

Multiple imputations do not suffer from the problem of underestimating the sampling erro1 because it appropriately adjusts the standard error for missing data (Enders, 2010). Moreover, it yields complete data set for analysis. Rahman et al. (2016) prepared a groundwater table database collected from BWDB for the period of 1991-2011. Complied groundwater table data for 15 monitoring wells which are close to the raingauge stations have been used in the present study. The locations of meteorological station, raingauge stations and groundwater monitoring wells are shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 2. Physiographic map of the study area (Brammer, 1996 and Alam, 1998)

Multiple imputations do not suffer from the problem of underestimating the sampling erro1 because it appropriately adjusts the standard error for missing data (Enders, 2010). Moreover, it yields complete data set for analysis. Rahman et al. (2016) prepared a groundwater table database collected from BWDB for the period of 1991-2011. Complied groundwater table data for 15 monitoring wells which are close to the raingauge stations have been used in the present study. The locations of meteorological station, raingauge stations and groundwater monitoring wells are shown in Fig. 1. Fig. 2. Physiographic map of the study area (Brammer, 1996 and Alam, 1998)

Fig.3. SPI series based on average rainfall in the study area a) SPI-3, b) SPI-6 and c) SPI-12 ee a For meteorological drought (SPI-6 < -1), moderate to extreme droughts were encounte rec n 1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2009 and 2010. Fo1 ayd 1972, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2009 and 2010. T comparative analysis of the SPI-6 and SPI-12 with El Nino or La Nina shows almost simi reSu Its of SPI-3. rological drought (SPI-12 <-1), moderate to extreme droughts were found in the years o! he lai

Fig.3. SPI series based on average rainfall in the study area a) SPI-3, b) SPI-6 and c) SPI-12 ee a For meteorological drought (SPI-6 < -1), moderate to extreme droughts were encounte rec n 1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2009 and 2010. Fo1 ayd 1972, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2009 and 2010. T comparative analysis of the SPI-6 and SPI-12 with El Nino or La Nina shows almost simi reSu Its of SPI-3. rological drought (SPI-12 <-1), moderate to extreme droughts were found in the years o! he lai

southern and central parts of the area suffer from severe and extreme droughts, whereas the north-eastern portion suf: 3 of June 1972 indicates fers from mild to moderate droughts. Spatial distribution of the SPI- that the north-eastern part suffered from severe to extreme droughts with SPI-3 values ranging from -2.99 to -1.49 and southem part experiences mild drought, whereas in July 1994 no rthermn part of the area suffered severe to extreme droughts. distribution of SPI-6 of October 1982 reveals that the southern part of the area expe severe to extreme droug time northern part suffered mild while moderate d 2009, the central part of the area experienced moderate to severe droughts, whereas ienced mild drought. SPI-12 of October 1992 indicates t southern part experienced severe to extreme droughts, whereas northern part experi southeastern part experi mild drought. Southern hts with SPI-6 values ranging from -2.87 to -1.49 and at th é roughts. At the same time step in August ir riencec e sam and central parts suffered from moderate to extreme d according to the SPI-12 of September 2010, whereas northern part experienced mild d Thus southern and central parts of the area more frequently suffered from severe to extre me rought hydrological droughts as severity of drought increases with increasing time steps, whereas m agricultural drought as shorter time step (SPI-3) values were high. northern part suffered fro

southern and central parts of the area suffer from severe and extreme droughts, whereas the north-eastern portion suf: 3 of June 1972 indicates fers from mild to moderate droughts. Spatial distribution of the SPI- that the north-eastern part suffered from severe to extreme droughts with SPI-3 values ranging from -2.99 to -1.49 and southem part experiences mild drought, whereas in July 1994 no rthermn part of the area suffered severe to extreme droughts. distribution of SPI-6 of October 1982 reveals that the southern part of the area expe severe to extreme droug time northern part suffered mild while moderate d 2009, the central part of the area experienced moderate to severe droughts, whereas ienced mild drought. SPI-12 of October 1992 indicates t southern part experienced severe to extreme droughts, whereas northern part experi southeastern part experi mild drought. Southern hts with SPI-6 values ranging from -2.87 to -1.49 and at th é roughts. At the same time step in August ir riencec e sam and central parts suffered from moderate to extreme d according to the SPI-12 of September 2010, whereas northern part experienced mild d Thus southern and central parts of the area more frequently suffered from severe to extre me rought hydrological droughts as severity of drought increases with increasing time steps, whereas m agricultural drought as shorter time step (SPI-3) values were high. northern part suffered fro

The spatial analysis of mild drought occurrences (%) indicates that they most frequently tend to occur in the north-eastern and south-western areas at 3, 6 and 12 month time steps, while the north-western and southern parts are characterized by the lowest frequencies at the same time steps (Fig. 5). Moderate droughts occur more frequently in the eastern part of the study area at 3 month time steps, and the moderate droughts exhibit some variable behavior when the time step increases to 6 and 12-month as they tend to occur in the central part contiguous with the western part. Annual occurrences (%) of moderate drought of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI- 12 range from 6.5 to 11.6, 7.4 to 12.9 and 6.7 to 12.5 respectively. Fig.4 Spatial distribution of SPI values of rainy season’s months (June-October) for the selected years

The spatial analysis of mild drought occurrences (%) indicates that they most frequently tend to occur in the north-eastern and south-western areas at 3, 6 and 12 month time steps, while the north-western and southern parts are characterized by the lowest frequencies at the same time steps (Fig. 5). Moderate droughts occur more frequently in the eastern part of the study area at 3 month time steps, and the moderate droughts exhibit some variable behavior when the time step increases to 6 and 12-month as they tend to occur in the central part contiguous with the western part. Annual occurrences (%) of moderate drought of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI- 12 range from 6.5 to 11.6, 7.4 to 12.9 and 6.7 to 12.5 respectively. Fig.4 Spatial distribution of SPI values of rainy season’s months (June-October) for the selected years

Fig.5 Drought occurrences (%) at 3, 6 and 12-month time steps

Fig.5 Drought occurrences (%) at 3, 6 and 12-month time steps

Table 3. Mann-Kendall Z statistics of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 time series Analysis of Decadal Drought Events

Table 3. Mann-Kendall Z statistics of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 time series Analysis of Decadal Drought Events

Fig.6. Cumulative decadal drought events in study area during (a) rainy season, (b) summer and (c) winter

Fig.6. Cumulative decadal drought events in study area during (a) rainy season, (b) summer and (c) winter

Fig.7. Comparison of annual average changes in GWT depth and rainy season’s months (Jun- Oct) SPI values (a) SPI-3 and GWT of Rajshahi area, (b) SPI-6 and GWT of Naogaon area, and (c) SPI-12 and GWT of Nawabganj area related to the dep in the Barind T ower in the Barin recharge and discharge zo ract. tha conductivity is low (Jahan d Tract areas where groundwater influenced by rai infall, and hen nes (K n the and A area, i table is th of GWT and possible due han et al., 2008 hmed, 1997), t shallow. Thus ce by drough groundwater management schemes. to local groundwater dynamics, groundwater . As itis known that depth of GWT Flood plain areas (Rahman et al., 2016) and he correlation and regression coeffi ustrating that the climatic impacts are greater in fl overall results suggest that depth of GWT is is higher hydraulic cients are ood plain t, which have implications for s ustainable

Fig.7. Comparison of annual average changes in GWT depth and rainy season’s months (Jun- Oct) SPI values (a) SPI-3 and GWT of Rajshahi area, (b) SPI-6 and GWT of Naogaon area, and (c) SPI-12 and GWT of Nawabganj area related to the dep in the Barind T ower in the Barin recharge and discharge zo ract. tha conductivity is low (Jahan d Tract areas where groundwater influenced by rai infall, and hen nes (K n the and A area, i table is th of GWT and possible due han et al., 2008 hmed, 1997), t shallow. Thus ce by drough groundwater management schemes. to local groundwater dynamics, groundwater . As itis known that depth of GWT Flood plain areas (Rahman et al., 2016) and he correlation and regression coeffi ustrating that the climatic impacts are greater in fl overall results suggest that depth of GWT is is higher hydraulic cients are ood plain t, which have implications for s ustainable

Table 4. Multiple correlation and multiple linear regression coefficients of rainy season’s SPI values and annual minimum and annual average depth of GWT for the period of 1991-2011 The spatial distrib portion suffers indicate that mi severe to extrem time steps hydrologic drought from d and e dro north-eastern pai mild to ution of SPI values of di and central parts of the area s moderate droug moderate droughts most and south-western parts, whi ughts wi is likely to occur in tl hts. A frequ e the southern and central parts of the a th increasing time steps. These findings co fferent ently tend to occur ct suffers from agricultural drought. drought years suggested that south uffer from severe and extreme droughts, wh nnual occurrences (%) of drought also in the north-east rea are affected ereas north-eas em tem nfirm that at lon ger he southern and central parts, while the

Table 4. Multiple correlation and multiple linear regression coefficients of rainy season’s SPI values and annual minimum and annual average depth of GWT for the period of 1991-2011 The spatial distrib portion suffers indicate that mi severe to extrem time steps hydrologic drought from d and e dro north-eastern pai mild to ution of SPI values of di and central parts of the area s moderate droug moderate droughts most and south-western parts, whi ughts wi is likely to occur in tl hts. A frequ e the southern and central parts of the a th increasing time steps. These findings co fferent ently tend to occur ct suffers from agricultural drought. drought years suggested that south uffer from severe and extreme droughts, wh nnual occurrences (%) of drought also in the north-east rea are affected ereas north-eas em tem nfirm that at lon ger he southern and central parts, while the

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