Euro money market spreads during the 2007–? financial crisis (original) (raw)

Comovements in volatility in the euro money market

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2010

4 6 Appendix A: Estimation of the permanent, persistent, and non persistent components 26 7 Appendix B: Break process estimation, Monte Carlo results 29

Modeling Short-Term Interest Rate Spreads in the Euro Money Market

2008

In the framework of a new money-market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. subprime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second half of 2007. This is done in two steps. Firstly, the

Euro Money Market Interest Rates Dynamics and Volatility: How They Respond to Recent Changes in the Operational Framework

Social Science Research Network, 2007

† We thank Natacha Valla for valuable comments as well as the participants in an internal seminar at the Banque de France. A special thanks to Stefano Nardelli for useful suggestions and for providing us data. 1 Résumé En mars 2004, l'Eurosystème a mis en place différentes modifications de son cadre opérationnel et de sa gestion de la liquidité. L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier les effets de ces changements sur le niveau et la volatilité de l'écart entre l'Eonia et le taux de soumission minimum. Nos résultats montrent que ces changements ont globalement eu un effet positif sur le niveau et la volatilité du spread. La baisse de la volatilité observée après 2004 est largement expliquée par ces modifications.

Interest rate spreads and fragmentation in the euro‐area banking markets; heterogeneities and ECB's policy

In the present paper we study the determinants of the spreads of bank loans and deposits by euro‐ area's non‐financial corporations. We use panel VAR techniques, in order to test for causality relationships and produce impulse response functions, for the period from 2003:1 to 2014:12. The countries are separated to two groups, in order to examine for heterogeneities in the relationships of NFC bank spreads and the period is separated to before the eruption of the global financial crisis and to the period after the collapse of Lehman. We find that significant heterogeneities existed, even before the global financial crisis and remained in its aftermath, although the magnitude and the direction of the effects exercised by the explanatory variables has changed ever since. Finally, we ask in what way the increase in the liquidity available in the euro‐ area economy, as reflected in changes of ECB's base money, due to the non‐standard measures adopted in the aftermath of the glob...

The Dynamics of Bank Loans Short-Term Interest Rates in the Euro Area: What Lessons Can We Draw from the Current Crisis?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

We analyze the dynamics of the bank interest rates on the new short-term loans granted to nonfinancial corporations in seven countries of the euro area (France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Our specification is based on a multivariate diffusion model, involving factors and stochastic volatilities. In the application, we use a harmonized monthly database collected by the national central banks of the Eurosystem, over the period January 2003-November 2012. We estimate the model within a Bayesian framework, using Markov Chains Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Unlike the results on spot rates in the empirical financial literature, we find that bank interest rates do not display evidence of mean reversion, and that the variance increases with the level of the bank rates only for a few countries. Moreover, we notice that the correlations between changes in the rates are not constant over the whole time period, and peak during the last months of 2008. Afterwards, they return more or less quickly to their previous level for some countries, while they remain lower for others. From this standpoint, the patterns within the euro area became more heterogeneous after the years 2008-2009. JEL Classification: E430; G210.

Euro money market interest rates dynamics and volatility

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2010

† We thank Natacha Valla for valuable comments as well as the participants in an internal seminar at the Banque de France. A special thanks to Stefano Nardelli for useful suggestions and for providing us data. 1 Résumé En mars 2004, l'Eurosystème a mis en place différentes modifications de son cadre opérationnel et de sa gestion de la liquidité. L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier les effets de ces changements sur le niveau et la volatilité de l'écart entre l'Eonia et le taux de soumission minimum. Nos résultats montrent que ces changements ont globalement eu un effet positif sur le niveau et la volatilité du spread. La baisse de la volatilité observée après 2004 est largement expliquée par ces modifications.

Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad

Empirica, 2012

Despite the single currency, yields on government bonds in the Euro Area deviate from German bond yields. These bond spreads are usually attributed to differing default and liquidity risks. Recent research points out that time-varying global factors, approximated by risk measures or short term interest rates, play an important role for the evaluation of theses risks. In this paper, instead of proxy variables latent processes are assumed to model the aforementioned time variation. We find, that default risks measured via expected debt-to-GDP ratio explain a good stake of the variation of bond spreads in the Euro area at least between 2003 and the take-off of the financial crisis. During the financial crisis default risks or rather their evaluation increased but lost relative importance compared to liquidity risks.

Impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign CDS spreads

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014

We study the variation of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) of eurozone countries, their persistence and co-movements, with particular attention given to the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically, using a dual fractional integration model, we test the evidence of long memory for CDSs of ten eurozone countries. Our analysis reveals that price discovery processes satisfy the minimum requirements for a weak form of efficiency for sovereign CDS markets, even during the crisis. In contrast, we document the spreading out of persistent CDS uncertainty among the peripheral economies with its outbreak. We provide evidence that CDS uncertainty has implications for the pricing of sovereign risk including that of core countries in the crisis period. Finally, we present the potential spillover effects utilizing a dynamic q The authors wish to thank to the managing guest editor

Fractionally Integrated Models With ARCH Errors: With an Application to the Swiss 1-Month Euromarket Interest Rate

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 1998

We introduce ARFIMA-ARCH models, which simultaneously incorporate fractional differencing and conditional heteroskedasticity. We develop the likelihood function and we use it to construct the biascorrected maximum (modified profile) likelihood estimator. Finite-sample properties of the estimation procedure are explored by Monte Carlo simulation. have motivated the existence of fractional integration in interest rates by the persistence of the short rate and the variability of the long end of the yield curve. An empirical investigation of a daily one-month Swiss Euromarket interest rate finds a difference parameter of 0.72. This indicates non-stationary behavior. In contrast to first-order integrated models, the long-run cumulative response of shocks to the series is zero.

Structural Distortions in the Euro Interbank Market: The Role of ‘Key Players’ During the Recent Market Turmoil

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

We study the frictions in the patterns of trades in the Euro money market. We characterize the structure of lending relations during the period of recent financial turmoil. We use network-topology method on data from overnight transactions in the Electronic Market for Interbank Deposits (e-Mid) to investigate on two main issues. First, we characterize the division of roles between borrowers and lenders in long-run relations by providing evidence on network formation at a yearly frequency. Second, we identify the 'key players' in the marketplace and study their behaviour. Key players are 'locally-central banks' within a network that lend (or borrow) large volumes to (from) several counterparties, while borrowing (or lending) small volumes from (to) a small number of institutions. Our results are twofold. We show that the aggregate trading patterns in e-Mid are characterized by largely asymmetric relations. This implies a clear division of roles between lenders and borrowers. Second, the key players do not exploit their position of network leaders by imposing opportunistic pricing policies. We find that only a fraction of the networks composed by big players are characterized by interest rates that are statistically different from the average market rate throughout the turmoil period.