The Human Cost of Recessions Assessing It Reducing It (original) (raw)
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The global recession issue: Introduction-Part I
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This special issue concentrates on the global economic downturn that reached its lowest point in late 2008. Signals of an impending crisis started in 2007 with a wave of insolvent subprime mortgages in the United States, but the seeds were planted years earlier. In its scope, length, and countries affected, this downturn is the worst in over 70 years. It is changing and will continue to change local and global business and economic environments. This issue aims to learn from past mistakes and better understand the new environment. Each part contains five articles and an introduction. Part I has a global perspective; Part II focuses on specific national economies.
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The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.
Global Recession' in the Offing: Deliberating on Proactive Measures
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ith supranational organisations and global think tanks predicting global recession in wake of the COVID-affected era and the Ukraine war, it has become a high time that organisation leaders and managers throw down their gauntlets to face the potential challenges of the recession to their businesses. Recessionary previsions The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that a third of the world economy will be in recession next year (IMF, 2022 October). It attributes a growing, multifaceted economic crisis to at least three factors, apart from the COVID-19 consequences; they are: the war in Europe, an economic slowdown in China and soaring inflation in most parts of the globe. The cost-of-living crisis, and tightening financial conditions in most regions, and Ukraine war (IMF, 2022 October) compounded with the protracted COVID
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The world economy is entering a major downturn caused by the most dangerous shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s. Current World Bank growth projections for high income countries have been slashed from 2.5 percent in 2007 to a contraction of 0.1 percent in 2009. World trade volumes are expected to actually contract in 2009, the first time since the 1982 recession. A distinctive feature of the coming global downturn is that it is a crisis emanating from advanced economies rather than from bad policies in developing countries. On the contrary, economic policies and macroeconomic positions in developing countries are generally stronger than 10 years ago. Nevertheless, the approaching advanced world recession will pose a severe test for the quality of economic policies and institutions in developing countries and will likely generate a sharp slowdown in their growth in 2009 through a variety of channels. Bank projections are for developing country growth to tumble to 4.5 per...
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The global recession of 2008-09 led to monetary and fi scal policy responses by central banks and government authorities that were often unconventional in size and scope. A study of expansionary measures employed during the recession suggests that overall, the policies were likely effective in shaping the outlook for a recovery, as forecasters raised their expectations of infl ation and GDP growth after the policies' implementation. From this perspective, the policies stimulated economic activity and prevented defl ationary pressures during the fi nancial crisis.
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The Great Recession of 2008–09: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses
From the Great Recession to Labour Market Recovery
The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses * Starting in mid-2007, the global financial crisis quickly metamorphosed from the bursting of the housing bubble in the US to the worst recession the world has witnessed for over six decades. Through an in-depth review of the crisis in terms of the causes, consequences and policy responses, this paper identifies four key messages. Firstly, contrary to widely-held perceptions during the boom years before the crisis, the paper underscores that the global economy was by no means as stable as suggested, while at the same time the majority of the world's poor had benefited insufficiently from stronger economic growth. Secondly, there were complex and interlinked factors behind the emergence of the crisis in 2007, namely loose monetary policy, global imbalances, misperception of risk and lax financial regulation. Thirdly, beyond the aggregate picture of economic collapse and rising unemployment, this paper stresses that the impact of the crisis is rather diverse, reflecting differences in initial conditions, transmission channels and vulnerabilities of economies, along with the role of government policy in mitigating the downturn. Fourthly, while the recovery phase has commenced, a number of risks remain that could derail improvements in economies and hinder efforts to ensure that the recovery is accompanied by job creation. These risks pertain in particular to the challenges of dealing with public debt and continuing global imbalances.
The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament.
Coping with crises: Policies to protect employment and earnings
tek.org.tr
The continuing failure of many countries to adequately mitigate the adverse labor market impacts of economic downturns is of concern, since labor market volatility can exacerbate poverty and stunt growth. This article aims to identify potentially effective policies responses to crises by navigating the potential tradeoffs between offsetting adverse shortterm impacts of economic downturns on the quantity and quality of jobs, and preserving incentives for economic recovery. The authors propose a taxonomy that categorizes interventions depending on whether they mitigate the negative short-term impact of crises or whether they stimulate recovery. The taxonomy helps policymakers to identify "winwin" policies that avoid potential tradeoffs between these objectives by simultaneously serving both. Common elements of effective interventions are feasibility, flexibility (for example the capacity for scaling up and down), and incentive compatibility-and there is no substitute for being prepared. Having sound safety nets in place before a crisis is superior to haphazardly implementing responses after a crisis hits. JEL codes: E24, I38, E61, D9, J02 Although economic crises are difficult to predict, their recurrence is a salient feature of emerging and developing economies. Nevertheless, many countries continue to lack an effective policy infrastructure that can mitigate the impacts of economic downturns on workers and their families while fostering recovery and long-run growth. This was painfully highlighted by the quest for quick responses to the global downturn of 2008-09 and by the ad hoc and reactive nature of many of the policies implemented. The weak ability of governments to systematically foresee, monitor, and contain the adverse labor market impacts of crises is of particular concern. The labor market is a prime channel through which shocks are transmitted to households, The World Bank Research Observer