Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections (original) (raw)
Related papers
Perceptions and reality: Economic voting at the 2004 European Parliament elections
European Journal of Political Research, 2008
Abstract. One of the most influential explanations of voting behaviour is based on economic factors: when the economy is doing well, voters reward the incumbent government and when the economy is doing badly, voters punish the incumbent. This reward-punishment model is thought to be particularly appropriate at second order contests such as European Parliament elections. Yet operationalising this economic voting model using citizens’ perceptions of economic performance may suffer from endogeneity problems if citizens’ perceptions are in fact a function of their party preferences rather than being a cause of their party preferences. Thus, this article models a ‘strict’ version of economic voting in which they purge citizens’ economic perceptions of partisan effects and only use as a predictor of voting that portion of citizens’ economic perceptions that is caused by the real world economy. Using data on voting at the 2004 European Parliament elections for 23 European Union electorates, the article finds some, but limited, evidence for economic voting that is dependent on both voter sophistication and clarity of responsibility for the economy within any country. First, only politically sophisticated voters’ subjective economic assessments are in fact grounded in economic reality. Second, the portion of subjective economic assessments that is a function of the real world economy is a significant predictor of voting only in single party government contexts where there can be a clear attribution of responsibility. For coalition government contexts, the article finds essentially no impact of the real economy via economic perceptions on vote choice, at least at European Parliament elections.
A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context
American Journal of Political Science, 1993
The paper explores a question raised by the 2011 Irish election, which saw an almost unprecedented decline in support for a major governing party after an economic collapse that necessitated an ECB/IMF 'bailout'. This seems a classic case of 'economic voting' in which a government is punished for incompetent performance. How did the government lose this support: gradually, as successive economic indicators appeared negative, or dramatically, following major shocks? The evidence points to losses at two critical junctures. This is consistent with an interpretation of the link between economics and politics that allows for qualitative judgements by voters in assigning credit and blame for economic performance.
The Economy and the Vote: Electoral Responses to Economic Conditions in 15 Countries
2000
Past research has strongly suggested that there is a relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes, but attempts to find individual-level concomitants of these aggregate-level effects have yielded inconclusive findings. This research is the first to look for effects of variations in real economic indicators (growth in GDP, changes in inflation and unemployment) on individual-level party preference across both time and space. We investigate party preferences of voters in 15 countries that are now members of the European Union over a fifteen year period using survey data collected in the aftermath of the European Parliament elections of 1989, 1994 and 1999. These surveys relate to 42 separate electoral contests, a number large enough to provide considerable variation in economic conditions. We do find significant effects of these variations on individual party preferences, even when controlling for past vote and other individual-level independent variables. These effects vary in understandable ways as we remove countries where national elections were held concurrently with European Parliament elections, or countries where the clarity of government responsibility for policy was expected to be low. Economic effects are stronger than any except for issues or distance from parties in left/ right terms. However, it is clear that the economy is only one of the factors that decide elections. Depending on its salience in a given country at a specific time, it could decide the outcome of an election or it could prove less important than other, temporarily more salient, voter concerns.
Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective
Electoral Studies, 2000
Based on individual-level survey data collected in 13 European democracies, this study analyzes three alternative ways of modeling how political context affects the relationship between economic perceptions and vote intention. The three approaches are (1) institutional clarity of responsibility; (2) governing party target size; and (3) clarity of available alternatives. The results reveal that political context interacts with economic perceptions to affect voting behavior. When the institutional context clarifies who is in charge of policymaking, when the target of credit and blame is large, and when citizens have fewer viable alternative choices, economic effects are stronger. Taken together, these findings suggest that voters' ability to express discontent with economic performance is enhanced when mechanisms of accountability are simple.
The Economy and the Vote: Electoral Responses to Economic Conditions in Fifteen Countries
2007
Past research has strongly suggested that there is a relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes, but attempts to find individual-level concomitants of these aggregate-level effects have yielded inconclusive findings. This research is the first to look for effects of variations in real economic indicators (growth in GDP, changes in inflation and unemployment) on individual-level party preference across both time and space. We investigate party preferences of voters in 15 countries that are now members of the European Union over a fifteen year period using survey data collected in the aftermath of the European Parliament elections of 1989, 1994 and 1999. These surveys relate to 42 separate electoral contests, a number large enough to provide considerable variation in economic conditions. We do find significant effects of these variations on individual party preferences, even when controlling for past vote and other individual-level independent variables. These effects vary in understandable ways as we remove countries where national elections were held concurrently with European Parliament elections, or countries where the clarity of government responsibility for policy was expected to be low. Economic effects are stronger than any except for issues or distance from parties in left/ right terms. However, it is clear that the economy is only one of the factors that decide elections. Depending on its salience in a given country at a specific time, it could decide the outcome of an election or it could prove less important than other, temporarily more salient, voter concerns.
Economics and Elections In Western Europe: 1960-1997
2000
This paper analyzes macroeconomic conditions and parliamentary election outcomes in 13 European countries over the 1960-1997 period. The analysis focuses on two themes. The first is that different macroeconomic theories imply that different economic indicators should be important for voters. The second is that political responsibility should condition voters’ responses to economic performance. We estimate a model in which indicators of economic performance and political responsibility interactively determine election outcomes. Performance measures suggested by alternative theories are included in empirical specifications. Results suggest that changes in inflation, especially when measured relative to the European average, have an impact on incumbents’ vote shares. The analysis fails to isolate political responsibility variables that condition the impact of economic performance on the vote, however.
HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), 2020
The EU has become increasingly responsible for the state of national economies over the last decades. Meanwhile, many observers have claimed that this increased responsibility has not translated into more accountability. In this article, we revisit this literature and analyze Vote-Popularity functions before and after accession because it provides a situation when the EU is an incumbent and when it is not. Using Eurobarometer surveys from 2001 to 2011, which were carried out in the countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007, we first show that individuals do not hold the EU accountable for macroeconomic performances before accession, but that they do after accession. Using European Election Studies surveys, we also indicate that the incumbent European Peoples' Party is held accountable for the state of the economy in countries that are ruled by the EU, but not in countries that have just become EU members.
European Journal of Political Research, 2004
This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters’ assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.
This article focuses on the relationship between the economy and electoral participation. Specifically , it aims to address the following question: what is the effect of the current economic crisis on Euro-pean electoral turnout? According to the literature, economic reasons play an important role in both electoral participation and people's party choices. The effects of a severe economic downturn, as the one experienced in Europe during the last decade, are however only partially known. Does the economic crisis mobilize or weaken electoral participation? Does it have any impact at all? In order to assess the role of the economy, this work will employ the last three waves of the European Election Studies datasets and combine them with national economic indicators. Findings from competing multilevel models confirm a limited effect of the economic crisis at the personal, national and attitudinal level, particularly for the 2014 elections of the European Parliament.