Party system(s) and electoral behaviour in Belgium: From stability to balkanisation (original) (raw)

A Crisis of Representativeness? A comparative analysis of congruence between parties and their electorate in the 2019 regional election in Flanders

2021

The policy positions and priorities of voters have become central in explaining electoral behaviour, to the detriment of traditional party affiliation. In Flanders, this has contributed to the rise of "new parties" and the demise of the three mainstream parties, whose convergence weakened their ideological profile. Using data from the RepResent electoral survey, I compare how representative the different Flemish parties were of the opinions of their electorate for the May 2019 regional election, using two measurements of congruence. This research shows that two of the three mainstream parties (the CD&V and the Open Vld) have some of the lowest scores on both types of measurements. Meanwhile, the sp.a is not only more representative of the positions of its electorate, but also of the voters of its left-wing rivals (Groen and Pvda) than the party of their choice, showing that the sp.a struggles to create enthusiasm for a program that is nevertheless in line with the demands of progressive voters. Résumé Les opinions politiques et les priorités des électeurs sont devenues essentielles pour expliquer le comportement électoral, au détriment des liens partisans traditionnels. En Flandre, cela a contribué à la montée de "nouveaux partis", et au déclin des trois partis traditionnels, dont la convergence vers le centre a affaibli le profil idéologique. Grâce aux données de l'enquête électorale RepResent, nous comparons la représentativité des différents partis flamands des opinions de leur électorat respectif pour les élections régionales du 26 mai 2019, en utilisant deux mesures de congruence. Notre recherche montre que deux des trois partis traditionnels (le CD&V et l'Open Vld) ont obtenu des scores parmi les plus faibles pour ces deux types de mesures. Par ailleurs, le sp.a est le plus représentatif des positions de son électorat, mais aussi des électeurs de ses rivaux de gauche (Groen et Pvda), ce qui montre que le sp.a peine à susciter l'enthousiasme pour un programme pourtant conforme aux exigences des électeurs progressistes.

Democratization and Polarization in Belgium

This study examines how institutional reforms during Belgium’s transition to consociational democracy around the turn of the 20th century – universal male suffrage, proportional representation (PR), and one-man-one-vote – affected polarization in the Chamber of Representatives. An analysis of new legislative vote data yields two main empirical results. First, as the Socialist Party was integrated into the party system, socioeconomic issues were “politicized” and polarization between the Socialists and the Catholic and Liberal parties increased along this dimension. Second, in the first years of Belgium’s contemporary era of coalition governance after World War I, division between the governing Catholic and Liberal parties and the Socialist opposition was more pronounced on bills pledged in the post-election coalition agreement. A general conclusion drawn is that the consensual effect of PR may be obscured by the onset of democratic contestation, thought PR may still be more conducive to democratic stability than majoritarian electoral systems in divided societies.

Territorial Reforms , Decentralisation and Party Positions in Belgium

2011

The objective of this paper is to explain party positions on the issue of decentralisation in Belgium. Based on a quantitative analysis of the content of the party manifestos of all Belgian parties since 1977, this paper intends to test three hypotheses concerning the amount of attention parties allocate to this issue in their electoral platforms. Our findings demonstrate that territorial reforms as well as patterns of party competition do have an effect on party positions on decentralisation. In this process the specific role of the regionalist parties is outlined, since these parties can be viewed the owners of the decentralisation issue and have a significant impact on the position of the other parties in the party system. I. Territorial reforms and party positions 1.1. Parties and territorial reforms The main question concerning the reforms leading to more centralisation or decentralisation of the institutional structure at the national level is the one of their origin. What is ...

Living Apart Together? The Organization of Political Parties beyond the Nation-State: The Flemish Case

Politics and Governance

This article aims to contribute both theoretically and empirically to the study of political parties in the EU context, focusing on party organisation. Theoretically, it draws on insights from various literatures to develop a novel typology of multilevel party organisation specific to the EU context. It argues that parties are goal-seeking actors that choose their organisation based on a cost-benefit analysis, involving both party characteristics and the institutional context. Empirically, the article applies this framework on the Flemish political parties. It finds that rational goal-seeking behaviour cannot fully account for parties’ organisational choices. Results show that normative and historical considerations play a crucial role in parties’ cost-benefit analysis. It therefore calls upon future research to expand the number of comparative studies and to further assess parties’ goal-seeking behaviour regarding their multilevel organisation.

Parties and policy in Belgium

European Journal of Political Research, 1989

An overview of the literature on the party-policy link suggests a weak, non-existent or even perverse relationship between parties in government and governmental policies in Belgium. It is argued that this weak relationship could be due to the methodology applied in this type of research, i.e. the treatment of the party variable on a much too high level of aggregation. The relative strength of the coalition parties, the parties' general ideological profile on a specific moment, the relative strength of the factions within the parliamentary party and in the Cabinet are not taken into account. On the other hand, several organisational factors with regard to the relation between parties, parliamentary groups, ministers and the administration tend to facilitate the impact of parties on policies in Belgium. Interview data with ministers suggest that the policy variable also needs further disaggregation. In particular, the qualitative aspects of policies should be more closely investigated.

Nationalisation of local party systems in Belgium (1976-2018): the combined effects of municipality size and parliamentary parties’ dominance

Local Government Studies

This article studies the nationalisation of local party systems in Belgian regions across eight electoral cycles (1976-2018). Our research design assesses the relevance of Rokkan's structural approach of nationalisation while testing the effect of conjunctural electoral factors. Our empirical results highlight the positive effect of a municipality's size on local party system nationalisation. Moreover, the analysis uncovers the impact of the electoral dominance of national parties in the local districts at previous national elections: where parliamentary parties have performed weakly at the previous national elections, nationalisation of local party systems increases.Interestingly, the analysis demonstrates that this relationship is stronger in the biggest municipalities, showing an interaction effect between conjunctural and structural factors. Finally, our findings indicate that significant variation remains across Belgian regions. This opens up avenues for future research regarding the potential effects of institutional factors and the 'freezing' of local political offer across subnational party systems.

On the fragmentation constant and the influence of electoral system and socio-political factors - The case of local and regional elections in the Netherlands and Belgium

16th Dutch-Belgian Political Science Conference (Politicologenetmaal), 2017

This paper hop step jumps through the history of social choice and elections since 1130 to arrive at the mechanical and psychological effects of electoral systems. Or: the “game of elections”. Ignorance-based quantative modelling is used to analyse fragmentation in municipal, provincial and parliamentary levels of government in Belgium and the Netherlands. The paper treats the maths and logic behind voter preference to votes to seats to representation. Concluded is that there are more regional differences in Belgium than in the Netherlands. The reforms in electoral law in Belgium are clearly seen in the level of fragmentation. The Netherlands provincial and municipal electoral system can be called “feeble”, even though it has some barriers to prevent too many parties appearing on ballot papers. The situation of too many large parties in parliament is worrying. The Belgian district system is very apt to limit the number of large parties to normal baselines. The municipal system of “list of the mayor” may be a bit too constraining. In total the Belgian electoral system can be considered “strong”.

Party system change in Belgium

Party System Change, the European Crisis and the State of Democracy

Through recent decades, Belgium has undergone an important process of territorial and political transformation. From a centralized state structure, Belgium gradually became a full-fl edged federal state, with recurrent community and linguistic confl icts between Dutch and French speakers and an explosion of the number of political parties. Three regions (mostly based on economy and territory) and three communities (mostly based on language and culture) emerged between 1970 and 1988. In 1993, Belgium offi cially became a federation, as stated in the fi rst article of its revised constitution. Parallel to the creation of subnational institutions, many powers were allocated to the regions and communities. Different

Decline of mainstream parties : party responses after electoral loss in Flanders

Belgium : the State of the Federation, Proceedings, 2019

During the last few decades, mainstream parties have faced a strong electoral decline. Mainstream parties responded on this change in electoral outcome with party change. In this paper, two categories of responses were studied in a dichotomic framework of mainstream-and niche party competition. First, organizational changes were examined as changes in the organizations' decision-making structure. This was measured through a document analysis of the mainstream parties' statutory rules. Second, programmatic changes were examined as a change in policy position and salience of the niche parties' main issue in the mainstream parties' manifestos. Data of the Comparative Manifesto Project were used. I examined the responses of the three Flemish mainstream parties (SP,CVP and PVV/VLD) during the 1990s. All three mainstream parties responded on the change in electoral outcome with both programmatic and organizational change. However, programmatic change was implemented more than organizational change. Furthermore, there was variation in the direction of change between the three mainstream parties. This research has important implications for the analysis of multiparty competition and the party change literature