Climate change impacts on agriculture in Africa: Current assessments and the way forward SELVARAJU BERNARDI 2011 (original) (raw)
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Climate is the primary important factor for agricultural production. Science has made enormous efforts in understanding climate change and its causes, and is helping to develop a strong understanding of the current and potential impacts that will affect people today and in the future. This understanding is crucial because it allows decision makers to place climate change in the context of other large challenges facing Africa and the world. This study reviews the causes and effects of climate change on agriculture in Africa. The main interests are findings concerning the present and potential impacts to agricultural systems, role of human adaptations in responding to climate change, and potential changes in patterns of food production.
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Dryland farmers in southern Africa operate under harsh conditions; infertile soils, erratic rainfall regimes, sub-optimal input levels etc. Crop yields have generally been low, negatively affecting food security and livelihoods. Climate change is anticipated to aggravate these already existing challenges. In the recent past, a wide range of studies has sought to understand how climate change will affect crop production. However, there are only few detailed localised studies that focus on understanding climate change impacts and adaptation under heterogeneous conditions that dryland farmers in southern Africa operate. This study sought to understand how climate change will affect food crop production in southern Africa's drylands and to provide insight on the potential of on-farm agronomic management strategies for adaptation. The study focused on three locations representing some of the agroecological conditions of southern Africa i.e. Big Bend in Swaziland (low altitude, hot and dry), Mohale's Hoek in Lesotho (high altitude, cool and wet and dry), and Lilongwe in Malawi (mid altitude, wet with moderate temperatures). The study was performed largely using a climate-crop model simulation approach supported by a review of similar approaches in the region, data collected from reported agricultural experimental trials, regional experts, downscaled climate projections (using up to 9 GCMs) and surveys. The study showed that temperature is projected to increase 1.3-2.7 °C in the 2050s and rainfall change will be uncertain, with a range of change from-15% to 18%. Aggregate projections from large scale studies showed that climate change effects on crops will be progressively negative with a median decline of-18% in the 2050s and-30% by the end of the 21 st century. While large scale projections potentially miss out on local differences in impacts and potential for adaptation, data limitations often hamper location specific study. In this study, location specific projections were performed using the DSSAT group of models, which was first tested for the simulation of crop yield response (maize, sorghum and groundnuts) under data limited conditions. The DSSAT group of models applied were found to perform well despite data challenges with simulated mean yields within ±15% of observed district wide yields, although the model's capture of seasonal yield variation was less accurate under extreme climates. Projections showed that the impact of climate change varies considerably from one place to the other and according to crops. Mean yields will decline by 20% and 16% for maize and sorghum in Big Bend and by 5% and 33% for maize and groundnut in Lilongwe, while in Mohale's Hoek, maize and sorghum yields will increase by
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