Simulating the Effect of Climate Change on Yield of Crops (original) (raw)
Related papers
2020
For generating different weather conditions during various phenological stages, experiments were conducted on two varieties of wheat (HD-2967 and HD-3086) sown on three different dates at the research farm of IARI, New Delhi during rabi 2015-16 and 2016-17. Soil temperature, soil moisture, leaf area index, biomass, chlorophyll content, radiation interceptions were measured during different crop growth stages. Number of days taken for each phenological stage was observed and thermal time for different phenological stages were calculated. Results showed that first sown crop had higher value of crop growth parameters and yield as compared to second and third sown crop.HD-3086 had higher value of LAI, biomass and yield than HD-2967. Grain yield had significant positive correlation with growing degree days during grain filling stage. Soil temperature measured at 2.21 PMat 5, 10, 15, 20 cm depth had 1-5°C lower value than the air temperature. Soil moisture measured at 0-15, 15-30, 30-45 a...
Effect of increasing temperature on yield of some winter crops in northwest India
The effect of increase in temperature on grain yield of some winter crops (wheat, mustard, barley and chickpea) in northwest India was evaluated on the basis of historic records and through a dynamic crop growth model, WTGROWS. The optimal date of sowing was also evaluated in view of the increase in seasonal temperature. The yield of these crops, especially wheat, already showing signs of stagnation in most places of northwest India, is most likely to be affected by temperature changes. The solar radiation-temperature interactions study in wheat reveals some interesting trends and is seen to vary from one location to another. Keeping in view the trends in global climate change, a shift in sowing time, as an adaptation strategy is recommended. The simple and empirical relations between yield and seasonal temperature change can be well used for a crude estimate of yield dependence of temperature rise of these winter crops.
Cumulative Effect of Temperature and Solar Radiation on Wheat Yield
The impact of temperature and solar radiations were studied as determinant factor for spring wheat grain yield. The data obtained at anthesis and maturity for grain number (GN), grain weight (GW) and grain yield (Y) were examined with mean temperature at anthesis (T1) and maturity (T2), solar radiation at anthesis (SR1) and maturity (SR2) and photothermal quotient (PTQ) at anthesis (PTQ1) and maturity (PTQ2). The data obtained was subjected to Statistica 8 software and scatter plot regression model was developed at 95% confidence interval with crop data and climate variables (T1, T2, SR1, SR2, PTQ1 and PTQ2). Results clearly indicated that yield remained directly proportional to solar radiation and temperature plus solar radiation (PTQ) while inversely to temperature under optimum other environmental resources. Direct relationship between PTQ and yield parameters confirmed that it determined crop yield and its management for variable environmental conditions need to be opted by adopting suitable sowing time as an adaptation strategy under changing climate.
Influence of meteorological parameters on wheat yield under different sowing conditions
MAUSAM, 2022
Field experiments were conducted on the research farm of IARI, New Delhi during Rabi 2016-17 and 2017-18. Three varieties of wheat (PBW-723, HD-2967 and HD-3086) were sown on three different dates for generating different weather condition during various phenological stages of crop. Results showed that during early crop growth stages soil moisture had higher value and soil temperature had lower value and with progress of crop growth stage, the moisture in the upper layer decreased and soil temperature increased significantly as compared to the bottom layers. During tillering and jointing stage, air temperature within canopy was more and relative humidity was less while during flowering and grain filling stage, air temperature within canopy was less and relative humidity was more in timely sown crop as compared to late and very late sown crop. Radiation use efficiency and relative leaf water content had significantly higher value while leaf water potential had lower value in timely s...
Effect of weather variability on growth and yield of wheat crop under semi-arid region of India
Journal of Agrometeorology, 2020
For generating different weather conditions during various phenological stages, experiments were conducted on two varieties of wheat (HD-2967 and HD-3086) sown on three different dates at the research farm of IARI, New Delhi during rabi 2015-16 and 2016-17. Soil temperature, soil moisture, leaf area index, biomass, chlorophyll content, radiation interceptions were measured during different crop growth stages. Number of days taken for each phenological stage was observed and thermal time for different phenological stages were calculated. Results showed that first sown crop had higher value of crop growth parameters and yield as compared to second and third sown crop.HD-3086 had higher value of LAI, biomass and yield than HD-2967. Grain yield had significant positive correlation with growing degree days during grain filling stage. Soil temperature measured at 2.21 PMat 5, 10, 15, 20 cm depth had 1-5°C lower value than the air temperature. Soil moisture measured at 0-15, 15-30, 30-45 and 45-60 cm depths had slightly higher soil moisture for HD-3086 as compared to corresponding value in HD- 2967 during emergence, flowering and grain filling stages. Percentage relative water content in HD-2967 was found to be higher in first sown crop followed by second and third sown crop. However, in HD-3086, percentage relative water content was found to be higher in first sown crop followed by third and second sown crop. Grain yield had significant positive correlation with relative water content during different phenological stages. HD-3086hadhigherradiation use efficiency as compared to HD-2967 in all weather conditions.
Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in northeastern Punjab, India
Regional Environmental Change, 2013
Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is grown as a rainfed crop in the sub-mountainous region of the Punjab state of India, with low crop and water productivity. The present study aims to assess the effect of climate change scenario (A1B) derived from PRECIS-a regional climate model-on wheat yield and water productivity. After minimizing bias in the model climate data for mid-century (2021-2050), evapotranspiration (ET) and yield of wheat crop were simulated using Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, version 4.5, model. In the changed climate, increased temperature would cause reduction in wheat yield to the extent of 4, 32 and 61 % in the mid-century periods between 2021-2030, 2031-2040 and 2041-2050, respectively, by increasing water stress and decreasing utilization efficiency of photosynthetically active radiation. The decreases in crop water productivity would be 40, 56 and 76 %, respectively, which are caused by decreased yield and increased ET. Planting of wheat up to November 25 till the years 2030-2031 seems to be helpful to mitigate the climate change effect, but not beyond that.
Assessment of climate change impact on productivity of different cereal crops in Varanasi, India
Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.5) Cropping System Model (CSM) was used to study the impact of climate change and variability on productivity of different kharif (rice, maize, jowar and bajra) and rabi crops (wheat and barley) at Varanasi. Keeping in view the observed trends in climate variability, productivity of different kharif and rabi crops were simulated under plausible synthetic climatic scenarios of changes in temperature, solar radiation and carbon dioxide. Productivity of kharif crops viz. rice, maize, jowar and bajra and rabi crops viz. wheat, and barley decreased with an increase in temperature or a decrease in solar radiation above normal. However, productivity of different kharif and rabi crops increased under expected enhanced CO2 concentrations. Highest productivity decreased in barley crop (40.7%) of rabi season and minimum in rice crop (5%) of kharif season with an increase of 3.0 0C in temperature from normal. Whereas, maximum productivity decreased in barley crop (5.0%) of rabi season and minimum in jowar crop (1.8%) of kharif season with a decrease of 2.5 per cent in solar radiation from normal. Highest productivity increase in barley crop (58.2%) of rabi season and lowest in jowar crop (4.2%) of kharif season were simulated under expected enhanced CO2 concentration of 660 ppm. The maximum decrease in productivity of barley crop (45%) in rabi season and minimum in rice crop (7%) in kharif season were simulated when a decrease in temperature by 3 0C and solar radiation by 2.5 per cent from normal. Highest counter-balance on productivity of rice crop (13%) in kharif season and lowest in barja crop (-23%) of kharif season were simulated when an increase in temperature by 3 0C from normal under expected enhanced CO2 concentration of 660 ppm.
Impact assessment of climate change on wheat yield in middle Gujarat region
The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. All in-text references underlined in blue are added to the original document and are linked to publications on ResearchGate, letting you access and read them immediately. ABSTRACT Keywords: PRECIS, simulation, InfoCrop. Pages: 9 References: 7 The impact of projected climate change on wheat (cv. GW-496 and GW-322) yield have been studied for Anand station of middle Gujarat Agro-climatic region using PRECIS output of A2 and base line data. Yield simulation study was performed by InfoCrop model. The field experiment data on wheat cv. GW-496 and GW-322 during the year 2005-2007 and 2006 to 2009 respectively have been used to calibrate and validate the model. The weather condition as projected by A2 scenario (2070-2100) showed that there will be 13.7 % higher rainfall as compared to base line (1960-90). The mean 0 maximum and minimum temperature will be higher to the tune of 5.1 and 3.6 C as compared to their 0 base temperature of 29.8 and 19.1 C. The variations in wheat yield of both the cultivars showed that th st overall highest yield was observed in late sown condition (30 Nov.) and lowest in early sown (1 Nov.). Overall D3 higher biomass and LAI were observed in late sowing (D3) as compared to rest of st the sowing. Higher days of anthesis were recorded in early (1 Nov.) sowing. Nearly 38 and 43 % yield reduction was noted in GW-496 and GW-322 as compared to their base yield during projected period. The maximum temperature during February which coinciding with the flowering and milking stage of late sowing of GW-496 and jointing and flowering stage of very late sowing of GW-322 varieties th was negatively associated with the yield. The late sowing (30 Nov.) of both the cultivars showed st th positive gain in yield as compared to very early(1 Nov.) and early sowing (15 Nov.). Higher yield gain was observed by cv. GW-322 as compared to cv. GW-496.
The wheat crop in the tropical region will be most sufferers because of increased temperature in future. Calibrated and validated DSSAT (CERES-Wheat) model was used to evaluate the impact of increased temperatures (1-3 o C), elevated CO 2 (450 and 550 ppm) levels and radiation changes (5% and 10% increase and decrease) on the yield of wheat in Bangladesh. The highest grain yield of 5194 kg ha-1 was obtained from BARI Gom-28 followed by BARI Gom-27 (4866 kg ha-1) and BARI Gom-26 (4573 kg ha-1) under existing temperature conditions. Wheat yield at Gazipur increased with elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration but decreased with the increase in temperature. On an average, 11.95, 18.97 and 22.82 percent yield reductions were observed with 1, 2 and 3-degree rise in temperatures, respectively under ambient CO 2 level at Gazipur. About 2-4% yield compensations are likely if the CO 2 level is increased up to 550 ppm. In Dinajpur area, grain yield of wheat (BARI Gom-28) also reduced by about 6-25% depending on temperature rise. Abstract-The wheat crop in the tropical region will be most